Iran's Pain Threshold: One Bank's Math

In a note seeking to assess Iran's pain threshold, Bank of America's chief Middle East economist, Jean-Michel Salba, writes that Iran's modest oil exports (250k bpd) at high oil prices could allow the Iranian regime to remain cohesive and service its wage bill, at the cost of potentially wider post-war economic imbalances. This could instruct the Iranian regime in its conduct of negotiations (including financial relief demands) and affect the US-Iran war of attrition timeline. President Trump appears to be exploring options to alter the timeline through military and IOC briefings, alongside continued indirect talks, according to press reports.

Iran ability to monetize some oil exports key to monitor