Jefferies, Goldman, Now Stifel: Wall Street Races To Cover Almonty As "Owning The Bottlenecks" Theme Gains Momentum
A sense of urgency is building across Wall Street as notable desks push clients toward the critical materials theme we already laid out for readers, as the Trump administration accelerates efforts to rebuild conflict-free supply chains and reduce dependence on China. Resource nationalism and the looming rearmament supercycle are turning secure access to critical materials into both a national security priority and a multiyear investment theme.
For miners already producing conflict-free critical materials outside China, the opportunity lies in supplying Western buyers seeking alternatives to Beijing's quasi-monopoly, which is expected to persist through 2030. The US government's deals with junior miners have generated news headlines, but new projects can take years to reach commercial production. As Western supplies tighten, the immediate market advantage belongs to producers capable of delivering material today. Government funding can accelerate development, but it cannot eliminate the time required to permit, build and commission a mine.
Wall Street Piles Into Almonty Coverage As Tungsten Producing Miner Ramps Up To Challenge China's Stranglehold
At the start of the month, Jefferies initiated coverage on Almonty Industries and assigned a "Buy" rating, highlighting the miner's direct public-market exposure to Western tungsten supply, with a 12-month price target of $26.25.
Jefferies initiates critical mineral companies Almonty, Materion, USA Rare Earth and Neo Performance with Buy; the firms are expected to benefit from increased demand for supply outside of China.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 2, 2026
Almonty (buy, PT $26.25)
Sees Almonty offering public exposure to Western tungsten…
By Thursday, Goldman Sachs launched coverage on Almonty, describing the miner as "at the center of the Western tungsten investment narrative."
Now it's Friday, and Stifel critical materials analyst Brock Cannon has initiated coverage of Almonty with a $25 price target, telling clients that the Nasdaq-listed miner is set to be a major beneficiary of Western efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese tungsten, which is critical to defense and advanced manufacturing.
Almonty rated new Buy ($25 PT) at Stifel as it sees the miner benefiting from increased production and higher tungsten prices. “Tungsten prices are up ~775% since the start of 2025 as China’s export controls have structurally changed the market”
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 25, 2026
China accounted for roughly 80% of global tungsten mine production in 2025 and about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity, according to Cannon.
Almonty's production ramp is timed just perfectly to help Western buyers break China's stranglehold on tungsten supply: its Sangdong mine in South Korea is ramping up Phase I, while Phase II is expected to nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes in 2027.
"Almonty is a global tungsten mine operator with assets across Western countries and the US. The company has recently started Phase I commercial production at its Sangdong, South Korea mine with plans to execute Phase II (~2x production) in 2027," Cannon wrote in the note.
Alongside an expansion at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal, that should substantially increase output over the next two years. Cannon estimates Sangdong alone could account for roughly 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply once both phases are fully operational.
Cannon noted, "The company is also expanding production at its Panasqueira mine which (along with Sangdong) would result in the company leading Western Tungsten production by the end of 2028."
Cannon added more color:
Financial Snapshot
Investment Thesis
Key Investor Debates
Global Supply
Tungsten Demand Market Segments
Tungsten in Defense
The Korean Trinity: Almonty's Long-Term Buildout at Sangdong
Tungsten Pricing: China Exit Creating New Market Dynamic
Almonty Tungsten Production Ramp: Ahead of the Game
Almonty Leads Western Tungsten Project Pipeline
US Tungsten: No Operating Mine, Five Domestic Projects
Long-Term Catalysts: Upside From Further Expansion Projects
Cannon named Almonty the "first name in our new Critical Materials coverage," which is outlined in a theme called "Owning the Bottlenecks."
Why this theme should work:
The race for conflict-free tungsten and other critical materials is a theme that Jefferies, Goldman, and now Stifel are backing, as Washington's multiyear effort to rebuild critical supply chains will reward early movers, including producers like Almonty.
Professional subscribers can read the full ALM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.