Jefferies Identifies High-Quality Energy And Materials Stocks As Cyclical Rotation Accelerates
Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne wrote in a note on Monday that surging refined-product margins, stronger gas-fired power demand, and improving earnings estimates are providing clear tailwinds for energy stocks, even as valuations and technicals appear stretched.
Byrne showed that the clearest source of strength in the energy market is refining. The six-month New York Harbor diesel-to-crude spread topped $100 (HOCL1 Index on Bloomberg) and has moved in close tandem with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).
Included in the "10 Charts That Mattered" report that Byrne published for clients on Monday is chart No. 9, titled "Energy & Materials Among High-Quality, High Real Rate Favorites."
He makes the case that rising refined-product margins and a high-real-rate environment favor several energy and materials stocks. Materials do not benefit from refining margins, but rather from the higher rate environment.
On the energy side, he outlined how Valero is the top crack-spread play because it directly benefits from higher refining margins. He then pointed out that ConocoPhillips and EOG are upstream producers, which means they benefit mainly from higher crude oil and natural gas prices, not higher refining margins, while CF Industries, Avery Dennison, and Crown Holdings are materials stocks that benefit in a higher rate environment.
He posted a chart showing the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected yield at about 2.5%, placing real interest rates in the 79th percentile since 1997. In other words, inflation-adjusted borrowing costs are extraordinarily high.
Byrne sees energy and materials as attractive havens for investors in a high-real-rate regime, but only Valero has direct exposure to the diesel crack-spread blowout.
Diesel crack hits record $102. This is absolutely unprecedented.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 17, 2026
Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass through in history pic.twitter.com/OtAdgrCvb3
He then pointed to ETF flows, which only indicate that investors are favoring cyclicals.
Materials ETFs have received net inflows equal to 28.6% of assets year to date, followed by industrials at 16.7% and energy at 14.1%. Technology, on the other hand, stands at only 4.1%.
Conversely, investors have been dumping semiconductor stocks.
The key takeaway is that investors are rotating out of semiconductors and into cyclicals, particularly materials and energy. Energy's robust year-to-date inflows remain intact, with widening refining margins and positive earnings revisions, which may only suggest further rotations into cyclicals.
Professional subscribers can read more about crack spreads, the Gulf energy crisis, and US consumers here on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.