JPMorgan Warns Of Oil Shock Scenario If Hormuz Remains Blocked Beyond June

As the conflict enters its fourth month, and the war appears to be restarting following the latest exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel, one development stands out: prices have become remarkably, almost unbelievably, calm.

Brent futures have stabilized near $100 per barrel. Dated Brent — the physical benchmark for prompt delivery — has also eased materially, and its premium to the front-month futures has retraced sharply from a record $36 in early April, when buyers were scrambling for available cargoes, to about $2, back near pre-conflict levels (something we discussed a month ago). Refined product prices have also pulled back from recent highs, and volatility across crude and product markets has fallen sharply.