June Jobs Preview And How To Trade It: "Markets Want Something Weaker Than Consensus"

The US jobs report for June will be released on Thursday, 2nd July, at 8:30 EDT, rather than the typical Friday, on account of
the US Independence Day market holiday on 3rd July.

Summary: The US jobs data is expected to show 113k nonfarm payrolls added to the US economy in June, slowing from Mayʼs 172k; the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3%, as Newsquawk summarizes in their preview wrap. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the prior rate. Analysts note that May was flattered by local government hiring which is not expected to be repeated, however, the FIFA World Cup could add around 40k temporary jobs to Juneʼs headline. Labor market proxies point to some cooling in the month: weekly claims have edged higher, with analysts suggesting that the trend is consistent with payroll growth slowing below breakeven ahead; S&P Globalʼs PMI data showed employment falling again, while the Conference Board data showed consumersʼ assessment of job availability weakening. For the Fed, the labor market still appears steady enough to keep officials focused on inflation rather than on employment risks, particularly after new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the 2% inflation target; a firm payrolls print and stable jobless rate would likely support another hold in July.