Kering Erupts After Gucci Sales Beat Estimates, Igniting "Turnaround Hopes"
French luxury group Kering jumped as much as 14% in Paris trading, the biggest intraday move in almost six years, after better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales at its Gucci unit. The UBS Luxury basket (UBXELUX) rose nearly 2%, driven largely by hopes of a turnaround at the luxury house.
Fourth quarter sales showed revenue fell about 10%, slightly better than the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of a 10.4% decline. It was Kering's smallest decline in two years, reinforcing Wall Street analysts' view that trends are stabilizing and the pathway to recovery may be near. This matters because Gucci still accounts for about 60% of Kering's profits, so even a marginal improvement carries outsized weight.
RBC analyst Piral Dadhania told clients results "confirmed modest further improvements," and the focus now shifts to "the extent to which Kering can engineer a return to growth in a still fairly challenging luxury environment."
At UBS, analyst Justinus Steinhorst told clients that Kering's results "boosted hopes of a turnaround," lifting the UBXELUX basket.
Here's more from Steinhorst:
The UBS Luxury basket {UBXELUX} is up 1.9% on Kering results after Q4 sales fell less than anticipated, boosting hopes of a turnaround. Positioning exacerbating the move, Kering scored as a 2 sigma crowded short. The Luxury basket scores as a 0.5 sigma crowded short down from neutral at the start of the year.
Jefferies analyst James Grzinic said the results were likely "fractionally" better than the buy side expected. He added the latest numbers "confirm gradually reducing pressures at a time of more supportive industry conditions."
Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane said the earnings should be enough to remind investors of the "direction of travel," citing a decent sequential improvement from Q3 to Q4.
Cochrane highlighted management's expectation of returning to growth and improving margins, though there was no explicit commentary on the 2026 outlook. He added that valuation already prices in sales and margin recovery, but still leaves some potential upside in the stock.
Here's the earnings snapshot of the fourth quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Comparable revenue -3%, estimate -4.77% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Gucci revenue on a comparable basis -10%, estimate -10.4%
Yves Saint Laurent revenue on a comparable basis 0%, estimate -2.58%
Bottega Veneta revenue on a comparable basis +3%, estimate +0.64%
Other Houses revenue on a comparable basis +3%, estimate -2.35%
Eyewear & corporate revenue on a comparable basis +2%, estimate +3.34%
Revenue EU3.91 billion, -9.1% y/y
Gucci revenue EU1.62 billion, -16% y/y, estimate EU1.61 billion
Yves Saint Laurent revenue EU735 million, -4.5% y/y, estimate EU710 million
Bottega Veneta revenue EU467 million, -2.7% y/y, estimate EU458.3 million
Other Houses revenue EU789 million, -3.5% y/y, estimate EU766.2 million
Eyewear & corporate revenue EU329 million, -2.7% y/y, estimate EU377.9 million
2025 Results:
Recurring operating income EU1.63 billion, -33% y/y, estimate EU1.68 billion
Gucci recurring operating income EU966 million, -40% y/y, estimate EU911 million
Yves Saint Laurent recurring operating income EU529 million, -11% y/y, estimate EU504.5 million
Bottega Veneta recurring operating income EU267 million, +4.7% y/y, estimate EU257.8 million
Other Houses recurring operating loss EU112 million vs. loss EU9 million y/y, estimate loss EU83.2 million
Recurring operating margin 11.1% vs. 14.5% y/y, estimate 12.1%
Dividend per share EU3, estimate EU3.71
Kering shares in Paris jumped as much as 14%, the biggest intraday since March 2020. Luxury rivals also got a boost.
CEO Luca de Meo took over at Kering in September and plans to unveil his strategic plan for the luxury group in April. He has already reshaped Gucci's leadership and announced a $4.8 billion sale of Kering's beauty business to L'Oréal SA to reduce debt.