Lululemon Bear Market Deepens After Guidance Cut Spooks Wall Street
Lululemon tumbled in New York premarket trading as its multi-year bear market deepened, with shares on track to revisit levels last seen since 2018 after a guidance cut.
The struggling athleticwear company now expects full-year revenue of $11 billion to $11.15 billion, below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $11.49 billion, while its second-quarter sales and profit forecasts also missed the mark.
Full Year Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees net revenue $11 billion to $11.15 billion, saw $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, estimates $11.49 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees EPS $10.95 to $11.15, saw $12.10 to $12.30, estimate $12.38
Second Quarter Forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees net revenue $2.45 billion to $2.48 billion, estimates $2.6 billion
Sees EPS $1.76 to $1.81, estimate $2.69
Lululemon's first-quarter results showed modest top-line growth but continued weakness in underlying demand, especially in the Americas.
EPS $1.69 vs. $2.60 y/y, estimate $1.69
Net revenue $2.47 billion, +4.3% y/y, estimate $2.44 billion
Total comp sales constant currency -2%, estimate -0.23%
- Americas comp sales in constant currency -6%, estimate -7.14%
- International Comp Sales Ex-Fx +8%, estimate +13.2%
Gross margin 54.2%, estimate 54.6%
Operating margin 11.2%, estimate 11.5%
Inventory $1.69 billion, estimate $1.8 billion
Total location count 816, estimate 818
"We experienced a solid start to 2026 as our teams executed with speed, agility, and discipline. Our work to drive improvements in North America resulted in some positive signals in the quarter, including a sequential improvement in full-price sales," Meghan Frank, Interim Co-CEO and Chief Financial Officer, wrote in a press release.
Frank then pointed out, "More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year. We have assessed the business and are taking additional actions to reposition where needed and further strengthen our product engine. We remain confident in our path forward."
The dismal forecast adds pressure on incoming CEO Heidi O'Neill to orchestrate a proper turnaround. The former Nike executive takes the helm in September with a mandate to restore Lululemon's momentum amid brand drift, market-share losses, and product-release fiascos.
Shares plunged 12% in premarket trading, tagging levels not seen since 2018. The stock is nearing double-digit territory after falling from grace, having peaked around $500 a share in late 2023.
Wall Street analyst commentary:
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal
"Lululemon's 1Q sales beat consensus but were still below historical standards and, coupled with weaker guidance, suggest headwinds from markdowns and tariffs"
"Backlash from negative commentary toward the end of 1Q put downward pressure on results globally but trends have since improved"
Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih (equal weight, PT to $113 from $161 )
While Lululemon’s 1Q earnings met expectations, its forecast for 2Q26/FY26 disappointed
"Traffic trends weakened at the end of April and into May due to bad press and product issues"
Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva (neutral, PT to $110 from $130)
After an in-line quarter, Lululemon "saw conversion drop off into April"
"For 2H26, LULU expects sales trends relatively consistent with 2Q26, although lowered guidance still embeds EPS improvement
Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg are mostly neutral on the stock.
In recent weeks, Lululemon settled a proxy fight with founder Chip Wilson, ending one of the year's top proxy battles. The deal gives Wilson two board nominees and includes a commitment to find another mutually agreed-upon director at a future date.
Wilson has been highly critical of the company as its North American sales weaken, competition from Alo and Vuori intensifies, and its market capitalization has evaporated over the last few years.