Meta's $628 Billion "Footnote": Count Zuck's Off-Balance Sheet Debt And The Stock Gets 35% More Expensive

For most of this year, the debate over the AI capex boom has been about two numbers: how much the hyperscalers spend, and whether they'll ever earn it back. Regular readers know we've been fixated on a third: the trillions in obligations that don't show up on the balance sheet at all. On Friday, the sell-side finally put that number into a valuation multiple.

In a flash note titled "Adding Off-BS Debt to META's EV Raises its Valuation Multiples by 35%," (available to pro subs) Needham's Laura Martin (Hold, no price target) argues that the off-balance sheet commitments piling up at the hyperscalers belong in enterprise value, full stop. Her logic starts with first principles:

$112 Billion On The Balance Sheet, $628 Billion Off