War, Warsh, AI Worries, & Leverage Unwinds; Manic Markets Make Multi-Year Records In Q2/H1

Tl;dr: Stocks are higher on the month, higher on the quarter, and higher on the year... but the path from there to here was exhausting (with leadership changing hands notably). From oil's wild fluctuations to a dramatic swing in Fed expectations, long-bond yields are flat, the dollar keeps strengthening as the 'sell America' trade collapses. Gold suffers its worst quarter since 2013 as Bitcoin was battered for the third straight quarter.

Oil