Most indexes finished in the green but with price action choppy amid job revisions and geopolitics - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were mixed, which saw the SPX and NDX notch slight gains, while the RUT lagged and was weighed down by higher US yields. The US highlight on Tuesday was the Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025, which were revised down by 911k, a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the BBG forecast range. The revisions initially triggered Dollar weakness and underpinned Treasuries, but with the moves later pared, while geopolitical headlines were also in focus after Israel attacked a Hamas delegation in Qatar.
• USD snapped its two-day sell-off post-NFP as a rebound in US yields drove dollar currency pairs, although the dollar was initially pressured and T-notes were bought on the BLS's Prelim Benchmark Total Payroll Revision (March 2025), which saw a bigger downward revision than expected, -911k (exp. -682k, prev. -598k). Nonetheless, a reversal was seen and the dollar strengthened as markets somewhat downplayed the report, given its backwards-looking nature (April 2024–March 2025), and given the fact that the final report comes in February, alongside the January jobs report, while participants now await the looming US PPI and CPI data.
• Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Unemployment Rate, Chinese CPI & PPI, Supply from Australia & Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include South Korean Unemployment Rate, Chinese CPI & PPI, Supply from Australia & Japan.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were mixed, which saw the SPX and NDX notch slight gains, while the RUT lagged and was weighed down by higher US yields. The US highlight on Tuesday was the Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025, which were revised down by 911k, a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the BBG forecast range. The revisions initially triggered Dollar weakness and underpinned Treasuries, but with the moves later pared, while geopolitical headlines were also in focus after Israel attacked a Hamas delegation in Qatar.
• SPX +0.27% at 6,513, NDX +0.33% at 23,840, DJI +0.43% at 45,711, RUT -0.55% at 2,382.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal of the judicial ruling that invalidated most of his tariffs and it fast-tracked Trump's appeal in the tariffs case.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will back Trump tariffs, while he added there is a fallback tariff plan, though it is more cumbersome.
• Chinese Premier Li said in a meeting with Portugal’s PM that China is willing to import more qualified agricultural products from Portugal, according to state media.
• Indian Finance Minister said they are negotiating for greater market access for Indian products in China if there are trade talks about investments.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US VP Vance said it is difficult to overstate how useless BLS data has become, and a change was necessary to restore confidence.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said 2024 job gains were exaggerated by nearly 1mln workers, while he added that US President Trump inherited a far worse economy than reported and he is right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates.
• **US House Majority Leader Scalise said the White House seeks an extension of current federal funding until January 31st, although the proposal is not finalised.
• Apple (AAPL) announced AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11, iPhone 17 and iPhone Air.

DATA RECAP

• US BLS Preliminary Benchmark Total Payroll Revisions (March 2025): -911k (vs Bloomberg consensus of -682k, prior -598k)
• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Aug) 100.8 (Prev. 100.3)

FX

• USD snapped its two-day sell-off post-NFP as a rebound in US yields drove dollar currency pairs, although the dollar was initially pressured and T-notes were bought on the BLS's Prelim Benchmark Total Payroll Revision (March 2025), which saw a bigger downward revision than expected, -911k (exp. -682k, prev. -598k). Nonetheless, a reversal was seen and the dollar strengthened as markets somewhat downplayed the report, given its backwards-looking nature (April 2024–March 2025), and given the fact that the final report comes in February, alongside the January jobs report, while participants now await the looming US PPI and CPI data.
• EUR weakened amid the dollar's resurgence and approached the 1.1700 level to the downside.
• GBP was marginally softer on the day as early momentum in GBP/USD stalled just shy of the 1.3600 before reversing course throughout US trade.
• JPY strengthened against G10 peers following hawkish BoJ source reports which noted that the central bank sees some chance of hiking this year despite the political uncertainty arising from PM Ishiba's resignation.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes were lower on the day after fading the initial knee-jerk reaction to the downward BLS revision, heading into supply and inflation data.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were underpinned after Israel conducted a strike on a Hamas delegation in Qatar, although oil settled well off today's peaks amid a firmer dollar.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.0mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -0.2mln).
• EIA STEO showed 2025 World Oil Demand forecast at 103.8mln bpd (prev. 103.7mln bpd) and 2026 world oil demand forecast at 105.1mln bpd (prev. 104.9mln bpd).
• Iraq set October Basra medium crude official selling price to Asia at a USD 1.35/bbl premium to Dubai average and the selling price for Europe was set at a USD 2/bbl discount versus Dated Brent, while the selling price to North and South America was set at USD 1/bbl discount versus ASCI.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel said it attacked the Hamas leadership and steps were taken to minimise harm to uninvolved people, while it targeted Khalil Al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin who were in Doha.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he ordered the security forces to prepare a strike on Hamas leaders after the Jerusalem and Gaza attacks, according to a statement.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said today's action against top Hamas officials was a wholly independent Israeli operation and Israel takes full responsibility.
• Senior Hamas source told Al Jazeera that the movement’s leadership delegation, headed by Khalil al-Hayya, survived an Israeli assassination attempt carried out through an airstrike in Doha, according to Al Jazeera's Ali Hashem. Furthermore, a Hamas official told Al Jazeera that the group leadership survived Israel's attack on Doha, although the son of Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya was killed.
• Hamas said Israel failed in its attempt to assassinate the group's negotiation delegation in Doha, while it stated that five members were killed in the attack and it holds the US as jointly responsible for Israel's Doha attack, while it added that Israel's Doha attack will not change their demands to reach a Gaza ceasefire.
• Hamas delegation convened to discuss a new American proposal submitted to them yesterday by the Qatari Prime Minister, while the meeting took place after some of the senior Hamas figures returned from Turkey, according to Amichai Stein.
• Israeli official said the US was notified before Hamas leaders struck in Doha, and it was also reported that an Israeli official said US President Trump gave the green light for an attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, according to Israel’s Channel 12. However, regional US military officials said they were not made aware of 'Israeli air strike' and that they were only notified after the attack in Qatar's capital of Doha, while a US official said the Israeli notification came when the missiles had been launched, and therefore, the Trump administration didn't have a possibility to weigh in.
• US President Trump said the attack on Hamas officials in Doha was a decision made by Israeli PM Netanyahu and not a decision made by himself, while he added that unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, which is a close ally of the US, does not advance Israel or America’s goals and he views Qatar as a strong ally and friend to the US.
• White House said the US was notified by the Pentagon that Israel was attacking Hamas in Qatar this morning, which was a unilateral bombing in a sovereign nation, while it added this did not advance Israel or US goals and envoy Witkoff was told to inform Qataris of an impending attack.
• Qatar said reports about being informed of an Israeli attack on Doha beforehand are false, and the call received from a US official came when the sound of explosion was heard in Doha.
• Qatar's PM said they reserve the right to respond to the Israeli attack which is treachery and noted the US called Qatar ten minutes after the attack.
• Israeli officials claimed the assassination in Doha increases the chances of a hostage deal and will significantly reduce Qatar's influence over the negotiations for a hostage deal, according to Jerusalem Post's Stein.
• Saudi Arabia warned of "dire consequences" over Israel's continued actions, citing alleged criminal violations, according to a foreign ministry statement.
• Egypt strongly condemned the Israeli attack on Doha and said it is a dangerous precedent.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said the Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar was "dangerous" and violated international law.
• IAEA Chief Grossi said he agreed with Iran's Foreign Minister on practical modalities to resume inspection activities in Iran and noted this is an important step in the right direction.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said on a new agreement with the IAEA that in the event of any hostile action against Iran, including the reinstatement of repealed UN Security Council Resolutions, Iran will consider these practical steps as completed, while he added the agreement fully complies with the law issued by Iran's parliament on cooperation with the agency.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia sees a lack of strong sanctions from allies as permission to continue its war in Ukraine, and he urged allies to make prompt decisions on air defence supplies.
• Ukraine said it hit an oil pipeline in the Russian Saratov region, according to Bloomberg.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoJ reportedly sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation and are likely to keep rates unchanged on September 19th, according to Bloomberg citing sources. BoJ sees steady progress towards the BoJ price target and sees the US trade deal as removing some risks to growth, while some officials are even of the view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October.
• BoJ is likely to slightly reduce purchases of super-long Japanese government bonds in Q4 2025and will make a final decision on September 30th, influenced by the 20-year government bond auction on September 17th and market volatility in super-long JGB yields.
• Reuters sources reported that while political uncertainty in Japan will not derail the BoJ's normalisation plan, it could impact the timing of the next hike, while the sources added that the "BoJ does not need to hike in the midst of turbulence" and there is "no rush...as long as it gets another rate hike done possibly by early next year".
• China's market regulator summoned major food delivery platforms and urged them to reasonably control subsidies, according to CCTV.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM spokesperson said the cabinet discussed focusing on supporting BoE's efforts to curb inflation, control public spending and drive growth.
• French President Macron appointed Sebastien Lecornu as new PM, according to BFM.