PremiumNatGas Still In The Driver's Seat As Fed, ECB, & BoE Shift Hawkish
It's still all about NatGas, according to top Goldman Sachs macro traders, Rikin Shah and Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli (full note available here for pro subs).
Qatari LNG through Hormuz is crawling at 15–25% of pre-war levels, Europe's winter storage math looks ugly, and the beta of front-end rates to energy is back at the highs. CPI just handed Warsh an easy hike, the ECB has already shifted hawkish, and Bailey is one more gas spike from having to eat his dovish stance. Buybacks won't save the long end. Equities are the only piece that hasn't cracked yet.