"Big Miss": Wall Street Disappointed After Dismal Novo Nordisk GLP-1 Sales Outlook, Shares Plunge
Update ( Wed):
Novo Nordisk shares in Europe opened sharply lower after the company released a disappointing full-year outlook during the middle of the U.S. cash session on Tuesday.
Shares in Copenhagen plunged 20%, the steepest drop since last July, as hopes for a bottom after a multi-year bear market faded.
Novo's warning on 2026 profits suggests it will be a tough year within the GLP-1 market. The company faces a multi-front battle, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound gaining ever-larger market share in the U.S. and continued pressure from copycat versions of Ozempic.
UBS analyst Matthew Weston had already been anticipating soft initial guidance at the start of the year.
Weston warned of even tougher U.S. injectable volumes than assumed, including cannibalization from oral Wegovy and potentially orforglipron; tougher U.S. injectable pricing, with volume growth likely to come from the lower-priced cash-pay channel. He repeated his 'neutral' rating on the stock.
Here's what other top Wall Street analysts had to say (courtesy of Bloomberg):
BMO Capital Markets (market perform)
The beats on the top and bottom lines were "overshadowed by a soft 2026 guide," analyst Evan Seigerman says
"While early signs of growth exist for the Wegovy pill, concessions for injectable GLP-1s are clearly impacting the topline offsetting gains in the oral market," Seigerman writes
Intron Health (sell)
The guidance is a "big miss," analyst Naresh Chouhan writes
"Guidance is messy as the company has moved to an adjusted sales and EBIT measure to exclude the 340b provisions that they took over the last few years and now expect a big reversal in 2026," Chouhan adds
Jefferies (underperform)
Analyst Michael Leuchten says the disappointing outlook "will weigh heavy"
Sales aim suggests high single-digit consensus cuts, "albeit perhaps without aggressive oral Wegovy assumptions," while adjusted profits outlook suggests low double-digit consensus cuts
TD Cowen (buy)
- While sales guidance is below analyst Michael Nedelcovych's expectations, the profit guidance "brackets" his estimates
Bloomberg Intelligence
"The headwinds highlighted are no surprise and center on semaglutide's loss of exclusivity in certain ex-US markets and GLP-1 competition," analysts Michael Shah and Christos Nikoletopouloswrite
"Further price pressure, along with slower volume acceleration, are the likely drivers of the worse-than-expected outlook"
Only last week, Goldman analyst Faris Mourad was telling clients that "obesity drugs narrative sentiment is on the rise" and "it's an opportunity to buy the dip."
Meanwhile, Goldman's long-time Novo bull, analyst James Quigley, provided his first take on the updated outlook:
"At the time of writing, the Novo ADR was -14.5%, tomorrow morning we would expect the Novo shares to react broadly in line with the implied FY26 operating cuts of c.9%, as FY26 is a re-set year with respect to the pricing aspect of the GLP-1 market."
How is Quigley still covering Novo?
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Novo Nordisk ADRs were clubbed like a baby seal around midday after the Danish drugmaker said in an early full-year outlook release that it expects sales to shrink 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates, far worse than the expected 1.3% decline Wall Street analysts had been expecting, according to Bloomberg consensus.
Here's a snapshot of the full year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees sales at constant exchange rates -5% to -13%, estimate -1.39% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees operating profit at constant FX -5% to -13%, estimate -3.12%
Novo's annual sales last declined in 2017 during an insulin price war in the US market. The Danish drugmaker faces a multi-front battle, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound gaining ever-larger market share in the US and continued pressure from copycat versions of Ozempic.
Trading was halted ahead of the report. When trading resumed, Novo's U.S.-listed shares plunged 13%, the largest intra-day decline since -21% on July 29, 2025.
Since Novo ADRs peaked around $145 in mid-2024, shares have been locked in a vicious bear market, down about 64% from the highs.
Hopes for a turnaround emerged late last year (read here), but those expectations have since been erased after today's dismal outlook.
Last week, Goldman analyst Faris Mourad told clients that "obesity drugs narrative sentiment is on the rise" and "it's an opportunity to buy the dip."
More here on Mourad's call urging clients to buy into beaten-down obesity drug stocks.
And Goldman's long-time Novo bull, analyst James Quigley, is out with his first take on the outlook, writing:
"At the time of writing, the Novo ADR was -14.5%, tomorrow morning we would expect the Novo shares to react broadly in line with the implied FY26 operating cuts of c.9%, as FY26 is a re-set year with respect to the pricing aspect of the GLP-1 market."
Perhaps it's time for Quigley to just give up on Novo...