NQ outperforms with NVIDIA +7% after stellar guidance; G10FX and USTs quiet into Fed speak - Newsquawk US Market Open

US White House is reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on chips, Politico reports citing sources.
Nvidia (NVDA) shares rise by over 7% pre-market after beating on top and bottom lines, whilst the CEO said they are seeing demand acceleration and expect revenues to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028.
US equity futures firmer across the board, helped by positive Nvidia and Salesforce earnings.
DXY modestly higher; JPY little moved following hawkish BoJ Himino comments.
Fixed income benchmarks tentative heading into the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium.
Energy benchmarks pare earlier losses following firm rhetoric from Russian officials and Iranian sources.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Aug/22). Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th), ECB Minutes (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack, Schmid, Supply from the US & Earnings from Marvell.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses begin Thursday's trade with a negative tilt, with the majority of indices in the red, outside of the DAX 40. The primary reason for the upside in the German benchmark is the read-across following upbeat Nvidia and Salesforce earnings. The broad positiveness in chipmakers was also seen overnight, with the KOSPI closing with gains of 1.5%.
Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Tech the only sector printing decent gains. To the downside lies Food, Beverages & Tobacco, with Chemicals and Optimised Personal Care rounding out the sector laggards. Key movers include: Pernod Ricard (-6.0%), Q2 revenue missed estimates and guided FY sales growth at the lower end of its range due to soft US market; Delivery Hero (+0.4%), raises its FY26 guidance.
US equity futures are entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the NQ following Nvidia (+7.2% pre-market) earnings after-hours. The tech behemoth reported Q2 metrics that beat estimates and forecasted stronger-than-expected FY28 growth, overshadowing the forecasted drop in Q3 margins. Elsewhere, Salesforce (+11.6% pre-market) also reported upbeat earnings that beat market consensus and guided metrics above forecasts.
A Politico report which suggested that the US is mulling a new round of tariffs on chips spurred some mild downside in the NQ earlier – though this move was short-lived.
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FX

Lacklustre price action across the FX space which has all G10 currencies essentially flat against the Buck.
Nothing to derail the AI Capex narrative within NVIDIA earnings, in which Q2 results were strong and guidance impressed; a release which did not give too much lead to FX markets. Focus now turns to numerous Fed speakers today including the hawkish Hammack and Schmid; thereafter attention will be on Chair Warsh, who is set to speak on Friday at 15:00 BST. DXY flat/modestly firmer with a peak of 99.20 which is just above the 200DMA.
JPY confirms the general trend seen across G10s with not many surprises from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino whose tone was consistent with pricing of September’s likely 25bps hike, noting in both of his speeches the BoJ needed to “pay more attention to upside inflation risks than before”. USD/JPY range bound within 159.30/40, calendar is light so will likely be dictated by a busy US schedule with just Tokyo CPI scheduled for Friday.
EUR flat against the Buck with EZ catalysts light ahead of ECB minutes. Price action today will likely be at the whim of the Buck with ECB minutes likely to not surprise. EUR saw some modest weakness of around 10 pips after taking a lead from French stocks ahead of the first French presidential debate at 15:45 BST. Note that the docket features the three favourites, Marine Le Pen who does not appease markets and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who recently touted France “set fire” to a large chunk of its public debt. EUR/USD slipped from the familiar 1.1650 to a 1.1634 base, before paring that aforementioned downside.

FIXED INCOME

Fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, with USTs (U/C) flat, whilst Bunds (-23 ticks) and Gilts (-21 ticks) are pressured. Earlier action was uneventful, but a report that the US is mulling a new round of tariffs on chips spurred some mild downside in fixed benchmarks.
USTs attempt to pare back some of the pressure seen on Wednesday following the slightly hotter US PCE report, whereby the headline topped expectations. On the Fed, it may not shift too much for policymakers heading into the September meeting – but a slew of Fed speak is expected in the next few days. Today sees interviews via Schmid and Hammack, whilst Chair Warsh is set to speak on Friday. A tight-lipped approach from the Chair could see markets begin to shift attention back to credibility concerns, and therefore result in the resumption of the debasement trade. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr (4.65%) remains shy of the level which saw the Treasury announce its long-end support (4.7%) – albeit only marginally so. A resumption of debt / credibility concerns could see the 10yr circulate within a 4.75-5% range into the next bout of key US data. On the flip side, a significant breach below the 4.5% mark would likely require a dovish Warsh on Friday (unlikely), and favourable NFP (Sept 4) / CPI (Sept 11) reports.
Bunds and Gilts are pressured this morning, The downside can, in part, be explained by the ongoing strength in Dutch TTF gas prices. Woes have also been further exacerbated by recent reports that Russian President Putin is to escalate the war in Ukraine, as he sees talks with Ukraine at a dead end.

COMMODITIES

In geopolitics, Nour News reported that Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag. The piece added that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers. Interestingly, a headline out of Iranian Press TV suggested that Oman reportedly stopped cooperating with the US to facilitate escorted tanker movements through southern Hormuz. Note: Trump has twice publicly threatened Oman with military action due to its bilateral negotiations with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, some focus returns to Russia-Ukraine after Bloomberg sources suggested Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.
WTI Oct and Brent Nov initially extended losses north of USD 1/bbl, but have since clambered off lows – potentially thanks to the Nour News report above. Currently WTI and Brent are posting losses of only USD 0.10/bbl, with the latter currently sitting towards the upper end of a USD 85.32-86.99/bbl range. Elsewhere, Dutch TTF is relatively flat intraday but off highs after dipping under EUR 66/MWh this morning before finding support near EUR 65/MWh and somewhat stabilising around EUR 65.50/MWh.
Metals are mixed with precious metals taking a breather after yesterday’s losses, although with upside capped as the DXY remains resilient to oil losses. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,593-4,643/oz range, with yesterday’s parameter. Spot silver found early support at its 100 DMA (USD 68.24/oz) and resistance near yesterday’s high (USD 69.95/oz). Base metals are mostly subdued by the resiliency of the buck, but underpinned by ongoing China stimulus hopes, 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,207.30- 14,323.13/t range at the time of writing.
Kuwait and Qatar have reportedly increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to around 1.4mmln BPD, some 70% of pre-conflict levels, according to reports.
Thai gold dealers said that the Ministry of Finance currently has no near-term plans to impose a gold tax.

TRADE/TARIFFS

USTR Greer said the US did not add any new demands at the end of the negotiations with Canada and that the US wanted mutual protection on things like steel and aluminium in trade talks with Canada. Greer also stated that the US won't just sit down and take it if Canada imposes more retaliation, as well as noting there are no open channels with Canada at the moment.
The US White House is reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on chips, Politico reports citing sources. The report detailed that one approach under consideration would increase the number of tech products subject to levies. This means that duties would hit chips, and potentially items such as laptops, gaming consoles and servers that fill data centres.
US Senator Moreno (R) reportedly sent a letter to USTR Greer to open a Section 301 investigation on South Korea over its treatment of Coupang, according to Semafor.
The US is investigating Apex Logistics over AI chip smuggling to China.
US President Trump signed a proclamation to increase lean beef imports with the quota increased by 100k tons of beef per month effective September 1st for 90 days, while the proclamation increases lean beef trimmings that are imported with no-above-quota tariff.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

German GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep) -26.6 vs. Exp. -29.6 (Prev. -29.4).
European M3 Money Supply (Jul YY) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.3%).

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB's Radev said October and December meetings are both live, Econostream reported. Radev stated that waiting until second-round effects are fully visible could mean acting too late, but that there is not enough broad-based evidence to say growth risks are "clearly to the upside". On neutral, he said that 2.5% is not a "precise dividing line" but "probably around neutral".
BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said he believes the BoJ should continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions. He added that the BoJ must be mindful of upside price risk more than ever before and that they will debate policy at every meeting while taking such risks into account. Himino highlighted that if underlying inflation rises to a level above the 2% price target, it would have an adverse impact on the economy. On the currency, the BoJ wants to scrutinise the various effects of a weak Yen on the economy.
BoK kept rates steady to 3.00%, as expected. Forecasts: Sees 2026 CPI at 2.7% (prev. 2.7%), 2027 at 2.3% (prev. 2.3%); 2026 GDP growth at 3.3% (prev. 2.6%) and 2027 at 2.9% (prev. 2.1%). BoK says rate decision was not unanimous as Board Member Hwang dissented on rate decision, while inflation is projected to remain above target level for a considerable time
NAB expects the RBA to raise rates by 25 bps to 4.6% in September.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed's Cook (voter) denied wrongdoing and vowed to fight US President Trump's effort to fire her from the Fed. Cook's lawyer said there is no legally valid reason for ousting Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve board.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Iran has warned that vessels violating new Hormuz transit rules could face blacklisting alongside their flag, classification society and insurer, and that penalties could extend to other ships using blacklisted service providers, Nour News reported citing an official.
An Iranian lawmaker said Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and vessels from the US, France, Britain or other hostile countries to enter the region.
Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Pakistan is not obliged to comply with unilateral sanctions imposed on Iran, while UN sanctions would constitute a different matter.
Iraqi sources report an airstrike on the main base of separatist terrorist groups in the city of Sorran, located in the Erbil province of Iraqi Kurdistan region, according to Fars News Agency.
Two explosions were reported in Mokha, Yemen, from missiles fired by the Houthis

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

CIA chief's recent surprise trip to Moscow was to warn Russia not to attack NATO, according to WSJ.
Russian Government Spokesperson Peskov said Russia's response to Ukrainian strikes on Russia's economic and trade infrastructure will be harsh.
Russia's Kremlin said Moscow remains open to participating in negotiations for a Ukrainian settlement, Al Arabiya reported.
Russian Foreign Ministry said the UK should abandon its hostile position towards Russia, which creates risks of transferring the conflict to a fundamentally new level, IFX reported.
Russia attacked an industrial facility in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, according to Ukrainian authorities.
EU states resurrect plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, with Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain pushing to use the funds to solve Kyiv’s funding crisis, according to FT

OTHER

North Korea denounced the US' decision to sell weapons to South Korea and said US hostility to North Korea is clearly acknowledged, while it will respond swiftly and decisively to hostile actions, according to KCNA.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin regains the USD 80k handle and nears Tuesday's peak of USD 81.27k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with most indices in the green, after the flat performance stateside, where markets digested the firmer-than-expected headline PCE data and braced for NVIDIA earnings. The AI darling beat on top and bottom lines, although its shares were initially subdued, but were then boosted during the earnings call as the CFO flagged about a 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year.
ASX 200 underperformed amid another barrage of earnings releases and after recent inflation data, which prompted a call by NAB for the RBA to resume hiking rates at the next meeting in September.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index fading the initial NVIDIA-spurred euphoria.
KOSPI led the advances in the region as chipmakers cheered NVIDIA's strong results and outlook, while investors were also unfazed by the BoK's pre-emptive back-to-back rate hike.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid several earnings releases and slower Industrial Profits, although the mainland was kept afloat after the PBoC conducted both 7-day and overnight reverse repos.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Chinese Industrial Profits (YTD) (Jul YY) 17.6% (Prev. 18.7%).
Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2026-27 (AUD)(Estimate 3) 200.7B (Prev. 173.4B).
Australian Private Capital Expenditure for 2025-26 (AUD)(Estimate 7) 210.0B (Prev. 207.6B).