Nvidia Earnings Preview: All You Need To Know

Ahead of Nvidia's earnings after the close on Wednesday - arguably the most important report of Q2 season and perhaps even more so than Powell's "shocking" Jackson Hole pivot- Goldman writes that positioning is a hefty 9/10 with expectations for a clean beat/raise. For context, NVDA has been beating Revs by ~$1bn the last few quarters (consensus is $46bn and guidance is $45bn) and investors are also looking for a very solid Oct quarter guide (consensus is $53bn) as the Blackwell product cycle takes off; upside here could be impacted by some moving parts on China/H20s (how much is included in guide, if any) and then what the “mid-70s” gross margin framework really translates to (73% or more like 75%).  Goldman's Bottom-line is that with Nvidia now accounting for 8% of the S&P 500, its Q2 earnings release is viewed as one of the most important events, which is likely to set the tone for the AI trade and broader Tech sector. 

In its preview, JPMorgan's trading desk writes that it too sees bullish positioning near extreme levels, and views near-term AI fundamentals as strong, driven by strong hyperscale capex spending. This trend is evident in the upward revision in capex during the Q2 2025 earnings season by the cloud/hyperscale companies, and the strong results/guidance telegraphed by other AI beneficiaries (e.g., MTSI, ALAB, AMD). In the cyclical segments, such as telecom/service provider and enterprise, conditions have continued to gradually improve.