Oil & Gold Soar On Week, But 'Good Data' Wrecks Rate-Cut Hopes, Slamming Stocks & Bonds
It was a 'good' week for macro data...
Source: Bloomberg
...but 'soft' survey data remains mired in depression as the 'aggregate' hard data holds strong...
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, good news is bad news for the doves and rate-cut expectations for 2024 are down (particularly after today's big payrolls headline beat) well below three cuts expected by the 'median' Fed dot...
Source: Bloomberg
...and the odds of a cut in June have tumbled back to a coin-toss...
Source: Bloomberg
And to rub salt in the wounds of the doves, inflation expectations are back on the rise bigly...
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks initially down-pumped on the hjobs data (good is bad) then went into their usual BTFD insanity, ramping Nasdaq to unchanged vs Wenesday's close (erasing yesterday's losses). However, within minutes of that FedSpeak spoiled the party again:
1310ET *FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION PROGRESS HAS STALLED, WON'T BE COMFORTABLE CUTTING UNTIL DISINFLATION RETURNS
And stocks started back lower...
On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow the worst performers. This was the S&P 500's worst week since the first week of the year...
MAG7 stocks managed to eke out very modest gains as a basket on the week...
Source: Bloomberg
Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) - the only sector to end green - while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged...
Source: Bloomberg
VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were also ugly on the week, led by the long-end...
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield pushed up to 2024 YTD highs and closed at its highest yield since November...
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar ended a choppy week modestly lower after spiking initially today into the green...
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, since The BoJ unleashed chaos in JPY-land, USDJPY has gone too sleep. @Bespoke notes that this is the smallest 13-day range for USDJPY since 1980...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold had another huge week, rallying to a new record high above $2330 (spot). Gold is up 9 of the last 10 days and 6 of the last 7 weeks...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold is screaming that something bad is coming (inferring negative real yields - something we have only seen deep in crises)...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices also surged, with Brent topping $90 and WTI topping $87.50 this week, as gepolitical tensions turned the rhetoric up to '11'...
Source: Bloomberg
And strength in oil meant gasoline and pump prices rose too...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was down on the week, but found support at $65,000 and bounced back amid a re-ignition of net ETF inflows...
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum underperformed on the week, breaking down to its weakest against bitcoin since May 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, with all the macro and geopolitical headlines, everyone seems to have forgotten about the whole premise for this rally was AI and wunderstock NVDA which is down 11% from its record highs one-month ago...
Source: Bloomberg
History rhymes...
