PremiumPayrolls Kill Waller's "Fed Pause" Party As Oil, Yields, & AI Earnings Whipsaw Markets This Week
Tl;dr: The week began with the market confronting an unpleasant combination - renewed war-driven energy inflation, a global sovereign-bond rout, and a hawkish Fed (Warsh J-Hole) - and ends with a blockbuster payrolls report removing what remained of the “growth is too weak to hike” argument. Equities ended flat, briefly helped by Fed's Waller) and supported by AI and software earnings (dude you're getting a DELL). The dollar dumped (yentervention?), gold and bitcoin's gains were punched in the face by payrolls, but the underlying message was considerably less benign: oil is back near $95, diesel is at record highs, global borrowing costs are still testing multi-decade highs, and investors are moving cash out of US equity funds and into money markets.
