PremiumThe Return Of History: Deutsche On Gold, The Dollar, & The Monetary Future
Authored by Mallika Sachdeva and Michael Hsueh via Deutsche Bank Research Institute,
In 1989, Francis Fukuyama argued that humanity had reached “the end of history”. In the years that followed, the US became the uncontested hegemon, global trade exploded in a US-defined liberal order, developed market central banks sold gold, while emerging markets accumulated vast amounts of US dollar FX reserves. We argue that the end of history has come to an end. The world is back in a superpower struggle; the US is retreating from free trade, alliances, and security provision; the Great Economic Moderation is behind us; and the dollar banking system has been weaponized. The “return of history” has big implications for gold and the dollar.