Services Sector Survey Surge Sparks US Growth Rebound Hopes In August

After a relatively ugly series of disappointing macro data - and a hectic week of interventions - preliminary August data from S&P Global's PMI survey was expected to signal a slowdown in growth for the US economy (but still growth).

But, the respondents had other things on their mind as while Manufacturing slipped, the Services sector of the economy soared

• Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 56.8 (July: 54.6). 20-month high.

• Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 (July: 53.9). 5-month low. 

“US business is booming," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, "with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August."

The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter.

Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East.

However, as Williamson writes, "the latter in particular remains a key area of concern for businesses, especially via the impact on supply lines and energy prices. "

Supply delays were again reported in August to one of the greatest extents seen over the past four years, clearly constraining output in many companies.

Price pressures, while fading, also remain elevated and prone to renewed upward pressures should energy prices rise again.

Growth momentum has meanwhile shifted from manufacturing to services between the second and third quarters.

Williamson concludes: "As reduced safety stock building and supply delays dampen factory production growth, the service sector is now playing a key role in driving a sustained US expansion, underscoring a dependency on consumer spending and financial services growth.”