Premium'Shaken & Stirred': Agents Beat Bonds In Week Of Punchy PMIs, Diplomatic Duds, & Energy Angst
Tl;dr: A week that opened with back-to-back Nasdaq records, sub-$100 Brent, and talk of Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within days... is ending with the 10Y at its highest since 2007, the 5Y through 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, October rate-hike odds approaching 70%, after the hottest PMI since 2021, sloppy auctions, and a steady drumbeat of hawkish FedSpeak collided with a US-Iran diplomatic roller-coaster, a diesel-driven energy squeeze, a nothing-burger Xi state visit, and fresh AI funding jitters courtesy of Oracle's force majeure notice. The dollar ripped, gold slipped, but crypto managed (tech risk-on) gains with energy split.
The week in a line: Wall Street spent the week 'muse'ing the AI future (big bounce in global mega-cap fund inflows) while the bond market raised the financing charge (global govvie funds saw investors rush for the exits)...