Stocks mixed on AI rebound ahead of US midterms - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

• SNAPSHOT: Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar flat, Gold down
• REAR VIEW: Washington reportedly approved the draft MoU that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran; both sides made concessions re. the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds; Iran's Rezaei said the US's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing; AAPL falls on margin outlook; META launches $15bln 5-parter; Strong US JOLTS; RBA hikes 25bps as expected, but gives no further guidance; Hotter-than-expected Swiss CPI.
• COMING UP: Data: Global Services/Composite PMI Final (Oct), EU HICP (Oct), US ADP Employment Change (Oct), Trade Balance (Sep), ISM Services PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) Events: Riksbank Policy Announcement, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, NBP Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoJ Minutes, South African Municipal Elections Speakers: Riksbank's Bunge; ECB's Lane Supply: Australia, Germany Earnings: Qualcomm, Novo Nordisk.

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MARKET WRAP

US indices were mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading gains while the S&P 500 and Russell also advanced, although the Dow Jones lagged and the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq was supported by a revival in tech stocks following recent pressure amid ongoing AI funding concerns and a slew of weak tech earnings, despite another disappointing update from Apple (AAPL) overnight. Apple shares closed lower after its margin guidance missed expectations, while on the call, the company also increased its manufacturing purchase obligations by USD 33bln to USD 90bln to help combat the memory crunch and secure supplies over the longer term. AI-related names firmed, with gains seen in the NCLD, DRAM and SOXX ETFs.

Crude prices were choppy but ultimately settled lower, with losses driven by reports that the US had agreed to accept the MoU that Qatar presented to Iran on Monday, with both sides reportedly making concessions regarding the nuclear programme and frozen funds. The reports sent crude prices tumbling to fresh session lows, but a lack of confirmation, followed by pushback from Iranian officials, saw a large portion of the move reverse, although crude still settled in the red.

T-Notes largely traded in response to swings in crude prices, but the yield curve ultimately bear-steepened. Yields hit lows following the aforementioned reports regarding a potential US/Iran agreement but pared the move as oil rebounded from its lows, with yields subsequently hitting highs following the stronger-than-expected US JOLTS report. Rate-lock selling likely also contributed, with Meta (META) hitting the market with a USD 15bln five-part issuance amid a busy week for corporate supply.

In FX, the Dollar was little changed as attention turned to the midterm elections, with results due to be counted from this evening. A Democratic sweep is favoured by betting markets, and if realised, Trump himself has said he would become "Mr Veto" in blocking Democratic legislation. The AUD sold off after the RBA provided little forward guidance following its decision to hike rates by 25bps in a 6-3 vote split. Meanwhile, the Yen was pressured by the rise in UST yields. Gold prices were bid during the US morning before fully reversing their gains to head into overnight trade in the red, alongside silver, although the latter underperformed.

Attention turns to the US midterm elections overnight; please check out the Newsquawk Midterm Dashboard, the Newsquawk preview, and the timing cheat sheet (available on the headline feed at 14:13EST/19:13GMT).

US

JOLTS: The September JOLTS report was strong, with job openings rising to 7.523mln from an upwardly revised 7.19mln, above the 7.10mln forecast and reaching their highest level since May. The quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, suggesting workers are becoming more confident about finding alternative employment. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%, pointing to stronger demand for labour in September compared with August. The report adds to signs of the continued resilience of the US labour market, with the ISM Manufacturing Employment PMI remaining in expansionary territory, while jobless claims remain below 200k. Attention now turns to Friday's US NFP report for another assessment of labour market conditions, particularly following the soft September report and sizeable downward revisions. The three-month average of NFP now stands at 51k, while analysts currently expect a 65k print. The JOLTS report weighed on T-Notes as it supports the Fed in maintaining its focus on the inflation side of its mandate. Ultimately, however, it does little to alter the broader policy narrative beyond somewhat reinforcing expectations for a December hike, with plenty of data still due between now and then.

FIXED INCOME

T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 11+ TICKS LOWER AT 106-16

Yields rise as oil chops on mixed US/Iran reporting and stronger-than-expected JOLTS ahead of midterms. At settlement, 2-year +1.8bps at 4.616%, 3-year +2.3bps at 4.682%, 5-year +3.2bps at 4.743%, 7-year +3.6bps at 4.834%, 10-year +3.8bps at 4.950%, 20-year +3.2bps at 5.351%, 30-year +3.3bps at 5.320%.

THE DAY: The yield curve bear-steepened on Tuesday, with long-end yields rising faster than the front end. Trade was choppy as the market digested ongoing geopolitical reports surrounding the status of US/Iran negotiations. Notable pressure in crude prices was seen on reports that the US had approved the draft MoU presented to Iran by the Qatari delegation on Monday, with both the US and Iran making concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds. WTI and Brent hit session lows following these updates, coinciding with T-Notes reaching session highs.

However, the lack of confirmation thereafter led to a sizeable reversal in crude prices and, consequently, Treasuries, before Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei stated that the US response was not convincing and reiterated calls for Washington to fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them. Crude ultimately settled lower, but well off troughs.

Alongside the rebound in crude prices weighing on Treasuries, reports of Meta kicking off its five-part USD bond offering, which was later reported to be targeting up to USD 15bln in the USD-denominated issuance alone, also likely pressured the Treasury complex through rate-lock-related selling. Reports later stated demand hit as high as USD 58bln on Meta's USD bond offering, and it was considering raising up to USD 25bln, up from the USD 20bln touted on Monday for both the EUR- and USD-denominated issuance.

Thereafter, T-Notes went on to hit fresh session lows after the September JOLTS report showed job openings rising notably above expectations to 7.5mln, the highest reading since May. The quits rate also rose, suggesting greater confidence among workers in their ability to find alternative employment, while the rise in the vacancy rate signalled stronger labour demand from employers. The report does little to shift the overall Fed narrative, but it firmly keeps a December hike in play, as a stronger labour market gives the Fed more leeway to focus on inflation.

Attention turns to the US midterm election results tonight, ahead of Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, with particular focus on any changes to issuance guidance and buyback commentary. The NFP report then follows on Friday, with analysts looking for 65k jobs added in October.

Supply

• US to sell USD 75bln of 17-wk bills on November 4th, to sell USD 115bln of 4-wk bills and USD 110bln of 8-wk bills on November 5th; all to settle on November 10th
• US sold 6-wk bills at a high rate of 3.940%, B/C 2.88x

STIRS / OPERATIONS

• Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 19.7bps (prev. 18.7bps), Mar 40.7bps (prev. 39.7bps).
• EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 108bln (prev. USD 109bln) on November 2nd.
• SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.95%), volumes at USD 3.268tln (prev. USD 3.175tln) on November 2nd.
• NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.43bln (prev. 5.09bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 6) on November 3rd.

CRUDE

WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.37 LOWER AT 96.09/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.17 LOWER AT 103.60/BBL

The crude complex was lower but settled well off lows, after benchmarks initially tumbled on positive US-Iran developments. Three main drivers sent WTI and Brent to lows of USD 93.59/bbl and USD 100.80/bbl, respectively. First, reports said Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed then added to the pressure with two reports, citing sources: Washington has approved the draft MoU the Qatari delegation presented to Iran on Monday, and Washington and Tehran have made concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme and frozen funds. After hitting those lows, oil pared a decent chunk of its losses following a lack of confirmation and eventually some pushback. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei said “US’ response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened”. Al Arabiya then cited an Iranian diplomat as saying Iran is interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions. Participants now await further US-Iran updates, as well as the US midterm results overnight. As a reminder, the midterms have repeatedly been seen as a pivotal juncture, with some posturing that any strike could come after the vote. Weekly private inventory data are also due after-hours, albeit taking more of a back seat. For the record, WTI hit an earlier high of USD 98.92/bbl, while Brent topped out at USD 107.24/bbl.

EQUITIES

CLOSES: SPX +0.34% at 7,568, NDX +0.68% at 28,180, DJI -0.39% at 51,782, RUT +0.35% at 2,816.

SECTORS: Technology +1.32%, Industrials +0.94%, Communication Services +0.88%, Real Estate +0.14%, Consumer Discretionary -0.05%, Health -0.33%, Utilities -0.60%, Financials -0.61%, Energy -0.79%, Consumer Staples -1.80%, Materials -1.90%.

EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX -0.31% at 25,901, FTSE 100 -1.14% at 10,638, CAC 40 -0.34% at 8,020, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.61% at 6,139, AEX -0.95% at 1,122, IBEX 35 -0.79% at 18,807, FTSE MIB -0.01% at 49,942, SMI -0.40% at 14,743.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Apple (AAPL): Surging memory chip prices & rising AI-related costs weighed on profit margin outlook.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Elevated investor expectations & sharp slowdown in US commercial contract growth outweighed strong results, robust AI demand & accelerating FCF generation.
• onsemi (ON): EPS & revenue topped Wall St. consensus.
• Fabrinet (FN): Headline metrics beat with stellar next quarter view.
• Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC): Strong quarterly report & Q4 outlook.
• Shopify (SHOP): Growth disappointment sees pressure & results struggle to justify lofty valuation.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP): Revenue light as was FY top line outlook.
• Fiserv (FISV): EPS & revenue topped as did midpoint of FY profit view.
• Anthropic (ANT) touts Claude’s chip design skills to IPO investors, reports The Information.
• US officials have held up approval for American chipmaking equipment needed by SK Hynix (SKHY/000660 KS) to expand production in China, according to source reports.

FX

The Dollar Index was more or less flat on Tuesday as geopolitics dominated ahead of the US midterms overnight. At the time of writing, Polymarket sees a 74% chance of a Democratic sweep, with a 95% chance of the party winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Several key Senate races will be watched, particularly whether Texas turns blue. On data, US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.523mln from 7.190mln, well above the expected 7.10mln. Within the release, the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, while the job openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%.

G10 FX performance was mixed, with GBP, EUR and NZD eking out mild gains, while CAD, CHF, AUD and JPY lost ground to varying degrees against the Buck. The Aussie came under notable selling pressure after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.85%, but gave no further guidance, with Governor Bullock saying in her press conference that it is probably better to wait for incoming data. The Swissy initially benefited from a hotter-than-expected CPI report, but gradually pared gains as the session progressed. Following the data, SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June.

Elsewhere in Europe, ECB's Radev said the economic environment is becoming more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over, while Nagel said a rate hike in December will very likely be necessary. EUR/SEK saw brief upside during the European session on reports that the Swedish parliament rejected the Centre Party leader's candidacy for PM.

CAD fell to lows as oil hit its troughs. BoC Governor Macklem reiterated that there could be a need to raise the policy rate further and that the inflation outlook has deteriorated, although there was no market reaction.

In EMFX, the PBoC will raise the FX reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts to 6% from 4%, effective November 15th.