"Timing Of The First Fed Cut Is Key": Why The Next Jobs Report Is Critical

Two weeks ago, after the Fed effectively confirmed the rate hike cycle had ended and in response to some dovish commentary from Nikileaks, we said that on average it takes 8 months from the last rate hike to the first rate cut... which with July increasingly looking like the last rate hike of the current cycle, put the first rate cut some time in March...

It takes 8 months on average from the last rate hike to the first rate cut. So March https://t.co/J9IULydqcA pic.twitter.com/SXFwn95DEA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 14, 2023

... something the market agrees with at least partially sending the March rate cut odds as high as 40% in recent days.