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Trump Reportedly To Announce Kevin Warsh Next Fed Chair Friday Morning; Bitcoin, Gold Tumble, Dollar Soars

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
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It all started a little after 7pm ET when, refuting a previous report that he would announce the next Fed Chair next week, Trump said that he would unveil his pick for Powell's replacement on Friday morning.

That's also when the Polymarket odds of Kevin Warsh exploded higher (after a curious reversal we observed an hour earlier, when Warsh overtook Rick Reider, indicating that once again someone knew something ahead of time), following a report from a journalist that "Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair -- and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I'm told. Nothing is official I'm told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod."

That's when Warsh went from slight lead, to full-on favorite at Polymarket.

And as many were wondering if this was just a trial balloon, one which sent futures, bitcoin and gold lower, and dollar and yields higher, a flashing red Bloomberg headline confirmed this was not a drill:

  • *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID TO BE PREPARING WARSH FED NOMINATION

The report, predictably, said just what one would expect:

The Trump administration is preparing for the president to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to announce his pick to lead the US central bank on Friday morning.

Echoing what we already learned earlier, the report went on to note that "Warsh, a former Fed governor and one of the four finalists on Trump’s shortlist to be the next central bank leader, visited the White House on Thursday, one person said."

Kevin Warsh, obviously

The president teased his impending announcement without giving the name away Thursday evening, saying the pick won’t be too surprising and will be someone known to everyone in the financial world. 

“A lot of people think this is somebody that could’ve been there a few years ago,” Trump said. It wasn't clear however if Trump knew that his nominee would spark a crash in the one asset class that makes up the bulk of his net worth, namely bitcoin, which had a catastrophic day earlier, and which plunged even more on the Bloomberg confirmation.

It wasn't just bitcoin: futures also fell, the dollar and treasury yields pushed higher (i.e., making housing not more affordable), and gold crashed again, on bets Warsh - best known as one of the most hawkish former Fed officials, often arguing for tighter monetary policy and a smaller Fed balance sheet, and who changed his tune only recently in hopes to ingratiate himself with Trump

It is unclear if Trump (or rather his advisors) knew any of this, which is why there is still the possibility that once Trump sees the impact of this particular trial balloon, will change his mind as even Bloomberg's sources cautioned that the selection is not final until Trump makes a formal announcement.

In the end, nobody knows what will come out of Trump's mouth until some time tomorrow. We would not be surprised at all if it is, again, a huge surprise. If not, we already know how this will end...

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