UBS Identifies Start Of Trump-Era Construction Boom In AI, Grid; Goldman Sees Upside In Used Machinery Prices

U.S. non-residential construction is expected to soften through the second half of 2025, but UBS analysts project a meaningful reacceleration beginning in 2026. Structural tailwinds—including investment in data infrastructure, energy, life sciences, and public-sector projects—are expected to drive the next phase of growth, even as commercial construction remains pressured by high interest rates and broader macro uncertainty. The anticipated rebound in activity has Goldman analysts forecasting upward pressure on machinery pricing later this year. 

According to UBS analysts Steven Fisher, Amit Mehrotra, and others, the latest industry outlook for construction spending is expected to remain soft through 2025, with nominal growth projected at just .8%, while real growth is anticipated to decline by 3%. The weakness is primarily attributable to a slowdown in manufacturing project starts over the past year, as well as continued headwinds facing commercial projects across retail, office, and warehousing.