US equities resilient to higher energy prices into live FOMC and big tech earnings - Newsquawk US Market Open

Crude futures are firmer after gapping higher overnight on escalating geopolitics, with Iran striking a US base in Jordan and subsequent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian-backed militia.
European Bourses began the session on a softer footing but remain relatively resilient to the firmer oil prices and prior APAC weakness, with earnings also providing somewhat of a cushion/impetus in the absence of macro updates.
US equity futures are modestly firmer (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%), supported by the KOSPI rebound, with focus firmly on the Fed decision.
DXY is relatively uneventful, USTs are modestly softer, and precious metals are firmer but to varying degrees ahead of the FOMC.
Looking ahead, highlights include the Fed Policy Announcement (Jul), BoC Minutes (Jul). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh & RBA's Hunter. Earnings from SoFi, Microsoft, Meta, Arm, Qualcomm.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European Bourses began the session on a softer footing but remain relatively resilient to the firmer oil prices and prior APAC weakness, with earnings also providing somewhat of a cushion/impetus in the absence of macro updates. The IBEX 35 (-1.6%) underperforms following CaixaBank results, while the FTSE 100 (+0.1%) outperforms on earnings, including Rio Tinto, and a strong Glencore production update, whilst heavyweights BP and Shell cheer the higher oil prices.
Sectors are mixed, with resilience across the board despite energy strength and prior APAC weakness, while sentiment remains capped by ongoing memory concerns and China competition following KOSPI volatility.
Movers: SK Hynix (-9%) weighs on sentiment after earnings miss lofty expectations. In Europe, Kering (+12%), Gerresheimer (+5%), Eni (+4%), Deutsche Bank (+4%), BASF (+4%), Rio Tinto (+4%), UBS (+3%), Glencore (+3%) and Standard Chartered (+3%) gain after earnings. To the downside, ASM International (-8%), Hermes (-8%), CaixaBank (-6%), Aberdeen (-5%), Remy Cointreau (-4%) and EssilorLuxottica (-2%).
US equity futures are modestly firmer (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%), supported by the KOSPI rebound, with focus firmly on the Fed decision. Markets price a c.36% probability of a hike, with 36bps of tightening implied by year-end, while attention also turns to upcoming tech earnings including Microsoft, Meta, Arm, Qualcomm and Lam Research.
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FX

DXY is relatively uneventful within a narrow band ahead of the FOMC, despite the overnight geopolitical escalation which saw crude gap higher. The index trades within a 101.23-101.49 range, holding broadly flat as markets priced around a 36% probability of a hike, with focus on the Fed decision and Chair Warsh’s presser.
JPY modestly firmer overnight on potential haven demand following geopolitical tensions and APAC equity weakness, though USD/JPY came off best levels and now trades around the middle of a 163.28-163.88 range, below the prior session’s trough of 163.64.
EUR holds a mild upward bias amid a subdued Dollar, with EUR/USD just below 1.1400 and trading within a 1.1382-1.1404 range. Newsflow is light from the bloc, with a smaller-than-expected softening in German import prices and a modest increase in the ECB Wage Tracker failing to move the needle.
GBP trades with a modest upside bias in rangebound conditions, oscillating around the 1.3300 mark within a 1.3277-1.3307 range. Focus turns to the BoE on Thursday, where a hold is expected, with attention on the vote split and guidance and then the press conference.
Antipodeans are mixed, with AUD under pressure after softer-than-expected inflation data prompted Westpac to shift its RBA view to a prolonged hold (vs prev. view of an August hike). AUD/USD trades at the bottom of a 0.6943-0.6979 range. NZD is relatively cushioned by AUD/NZD downside but remains soft overall, with NZD/USD in a 0.5775-0.5794 range.

FIXED INCOME

USTs are modestly softer, down by a handful of ticks, as geopolitical escalation and firmer energy prices weigh on the space. The contract remains comfortably above recent lows at 108-15+ and 108-12+, with focus turning to the FOMC where a hold is expected, though risks are tilted hawkish amid the recent rise in energy, and with markets implying a 30-35% chance of a hike.
Bund are under pressure, down around 15 ticks, with only a fleeting lift seen on softer German import prices (6.1% Y/Y vs prev. 6.8%). The benchmark trades just above a 124.95 low, holding above Tuesday’s 124.93 base. No move was seen to the 2036 Bund auction, which was moderately weak but showed slightly better underlying demand compared to the prior.
Gilts are lower, opening down 16 ticks before extending losses to an 87.08 base, taking out Tuesday’s trough but remaining above Monday’s 86.83 low. Price action is largely driven by the broader energy-led move, with limited UK-specific catalysts.
Germany sold EUR 4.5bln (exp. 6bln) 3.00% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.1x (prev. 1.03x), average yield 3.13% (prev. 3.09%) & retention 25.05% (prev. 35%).

COMMODITIES

Crude futures are firmer after gapping higher overnight on escalating geopolitics, with Iran striking a US base in Jordan and subsequent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian-backed militia. WTI Sept’26 and Brent Oct’26 hit highs of USD 83.30/bbl and USD 85.63/bbl respectively, before waning as the US had not yet officially retaliated to the Jordan strike. Dutch TTF found resistance at EUR 59.50/MWh, then support at EUR 58/MWh, stabilising around EUR 58.50/MWh. Prices rose further after sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.
Precious metals are firmer but to varying degrees, supported by geopolitically driven haven demand amid a flat/subdued Dollar, though upside is capped ahead of the FOMC. Spot gold trades within a USD 4,010-4,047/oz range, while spot silver posts larger gains but remains off the USD 58.53/oz peak, within a USD 56.85-58.23/oz range.
Base metals are mixed to subdued as geopolitical tensions weigh on the growth outlook. 3M LME copper trades within a narrow USD 13,584.00-13,690.90/t range, while iron ore prices waned overnight amid weak steel demand concerns.
Egypt aims to drill 160 new oil and gas wells with investments of USD 7.2bln, according to Al Arabiya.
US invests USD 1bln to combat New World Screwworm outbreak,a ccording to Agricultural Secretary Rollins.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.3mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillates +0.4mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +0.9mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.

TRADE/TARIFFS

US tariffs are sending some firms back to China, NYT writes.
UK Foreign Secretary Miliband will play a “greater role” in the UK's Brexit reset talks than previous foreign secretaries, the FCDO told POLITICO.
China Commerce Minister held a call with the UK Trade Secretary and said China is willing to strengthen cooperation in service trade, green transition and renewable energy. said:. Highly concerned about nationalisation of British steel and urged the UK to abide by relevant international rules. Urged favourable business environment for Chinese enterprises in the UK.
China's MOFCOM said regarding US putting Chinese research institutions on sanctions list, that it is aware of the situation and strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposes this. said:. China urges the US to stop smearing Chinese research institutions, correct its approach, and provide fair, impartial, non‑discriminatory treatment. China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of its research institutions and to protect normal scientific exchanges and cooperation.
Trump administration bans foreign made robots and power inverters amid fears of Chinese influence, according to POLITICO.

US EARNINGS

Bunge Global SA (BG) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.0 (exp. 1.97), Revenue 24bln (exp. 22.81bln). Current FY adj. EPS 9.25-9.75 (exp. 9.42).
Humana (HUM) Q2 2026 (USD): adj. EPS 7.61 (exp. 7.26); affirms FY 2026 adjusted guidance.
Biogen (BIIB) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS (exp. 3.02), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.46bln).
V.F. Corp (VFC) Q1 2026 (USD): adj. operating income -95mln (exp. -95mln), Revenue 1.67bln (exp. 1.64bln).
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 2026 (USD): adj. EPS 1.52 (exp. 1.42), Revenue 3.27bln (exp. 3.38bln); raises guidance. GUIDANCE:. Sees Q3 EPS between 1.77-1.83 (exp. 1.79). Sees Q3 sales between 3.65-3.85bln (exp. 3.7bln).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Jun) M/M 9.5B vs. Exp. 5.5B (Prev. 4.6B).
UK Mortgage Lending (Jun) 7.73B vs. Exp. 3.95B (Prev. 2.89B).
UK Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 58.20K vs. Exp. 56K (Prev. 56.21K).
UK M4 Money Supply MoM (Jun) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%).
UK BoE Consumer Credit (Jun) 1.807B vs. Exp. 1.7B (Prev. 1.662B).
Italian Industrial Sales YoY (May) Y/Y 5.3% (Prev. 3.2%).
Italian Industrial Sales MoM (May) M/M 0.60% (Prev. 0.3%).
German Import Prices YoY (Jun) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.8%).
German Import Prices MoM (Jun) M/M -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. 0.7%).
Norwegian Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M 1.8% (Prev. -2.1%).
Swedish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2) Y/Y 2.8% (Prev. 2%).
Swedish GDP MoM (Jun) M/M -0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
Swedish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) Q/Q 1.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.2%).

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB's Patsalides said as inflation risks rise, the balance shifts towards pre-emptive action, EconoStream reported. No evidence favoured July hike; second-round effects are not evident and expectations are anchored. If higher oil prices persist, inflation risks will rise. Hikes in projections do not obligate us, policy can not depend on today's yield curve. Scenarios could be changed or updated after September data. Higher prices may be filtering into parts of the economy which are not easily observed.
ECB Wage Tracker - Annual, 2026: 2.301% (prev. 2.281%). Quarterly, Q1-2027: 2.664% (1st estimate). Quarterly. Q1 2026: 1.833% (prev. 1.834%). Q2 2026: 2.140% (prev. 2.129%). Q3 2026: 2.590% (prev. 2.558%). Q4 2026: 2.641% (prev. 2.604%). Q1 2027: 2.664% 1st estimate.
BoE is reportedly examining the rapid increase in Asian equity exposure among investment banks in London amid concerns over concentrated positions tied to a small number of AI-related stocks, according to FT.
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis announces that Byron Pepper has been appointed as RBNZ Deputy.
New Zealand First leader Peters called for a return to RBNZ dual mandate.
PBoC's overnight reverse repo rate was steady at 1.25%.
PBoC injected CNY 600bln via overnight reverse repos.
PBoC injected CNY 206.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7899 vs exp. 6.7635 (prev. 6.7911).
BoK Governor Shin said most rational to maintain a tightening stance to control core inflation, adds timing and degree of policy response will depend on upcoming data and economic conditions.
BoK said necessary to be more cautious about risks related to house prices and household debt, adds inflation will exceed target in H2, adds will continue making market stabilising efforts and necessary to maintain a tightening policy stance.
Chile Central Bank maintains benchmark rate at 4.5%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that the macroeconomic scenario remains subject to a higher than usual degree of uncertainty. said:. Board reaffirms it will make every decision necessary to meet its objective of ensuring the projected inflation stands at 3% over a two-year horizon. Future path of interest rates will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Trump posted "Senator Johnson is working hard with Senate Republican leadership to adopt a budget resolution before the August recess. This is the first step towards getting as much of the Save America Act as possible in the budget bill..". Full post: "Senator Ron Johnson is working hard with Senate Republican Leadership to adopt a Budget Resolution before the August recess. This is the first step towards getting as much of THE SAVE AMERICA ACT as possible in a Budget Bill, funding our Troops, and helping our Farmers. I am calling on the Senate to get this critical first step done before the August recess. This Resolution can be adopted at a simple Majority threshold. GET IT DONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP".
Majority of US Senate votes to confirm Trump nominee Jay Clayton to be the Director of National Intelligence.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

US CENTCOM said US and Saudi forces strike Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq.
Iranian state TV cites an unnamed military source stating that Iran denies any link to projectiles fired from other countries at targets in Saudi Arabia.
Chinese Foreign Ministry denies reported that Iran will received Chinese-made man-portable air defence systems in the coming weeks.
Iran official said Oman proposal for Hormuz Strait joint regional management is to fail.
Iran will get Chinese shoulder launched missile systems in weeks, according to Reuters.
US President Trump said in a tele-rally that Iran wants to make a deal so badly, adds we'll get Iran to sign on the dotted line and we'll get the war over with.
US CENTCOM said at 17.45EDT, IRGC forces launch multiple ballistic missiles from Iran and all Iranian missiles were effectively intercepted.
US official said Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, but noted missiles were intercepted, according to Axios.
Iran considered retaliatory strike on Ukrainian seaport, although a flurry of diplomacy has eased tensions, according to NYT citing officials.
US official said Iran is over reaching with demands that Oman, US and the international community are rightly rejecting on Strait of Hormuz. Deal being discussed is a coordination deal, there are no tolls and no fees.
Iraq PM's planned visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow has been cancelled, Iraqi government source tells Al-Araby.
A senior Iranian official said Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for regional joint management of the Strait of Hormuz as unworkable, reported suggest.
Iraqi sources said US and Saudi Arabia targeted a mosque and water purification plant in Baghdad.
IRGC noted that 3 tankers were hit and seized in the Hormuz Strait, adds US interference in the region will not go unanswered.
Explosions were heard in south Baghdad, while reported noted US and Saudi strike in Kirkuk and Salah Al-Din.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said meeting with Trump is one of the best we've had.
IRGC confirmed that they fired ballistic missiles at the US Air Base and US Military Central Command Center in Jordan.
US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and many important subjects were discussed.
Explosions reported in Al-Suwayrah, Wasit province South of Baghdad.
Source circulates 'footage of a direct hit on Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan'.
IRIB reported explosions in Jordanian airspace and that US base in Jordan was possibly targeted.
Iranian media sources report explosions in US base in Jordan due to Iranian missile attack.
Three Japanese-linked vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz via Iran's designated route, Kyodo reported.
An Israeli military source said Defence Minister Katz disclosed operational details about the takeoff of US fighter jets from Israel to carry out strikes on Iran, Al Hadath reported.
Several loud explosions are being reported in Jordan, according to Nour News.
Sources said Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships transiting the southern Red Sea.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Zelensky said forces struck Russian oil refinery in the Perm region, export terminal and military plant in Rostov region.
Russian forces hit two vessels carrying weapons to Ukrainian ports near Odesa, according to Russia's defence ministry.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said had a very good meeting with US President Trump and that Trump accepted that he'll give Ukraine licenses for Patriot missiles.
US President Trump posted that it was a great honour to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky and that the meeting went well with many things discussed.
Large majority of US Senate voted to advance Russian energy sanctions, with the bill targeting Russian officials and oil-dependent nations.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin posts mild gains in a continuation of yesterday's rebound, with Bitcoin topping USD 64,500 in recent trade.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were choppy with mixed, two-way trade seen as bourses initially began on the front foot as an initial tech rebound helped the region shrug off the geopolitical risks following the Iran attack on a US base in Jordan, although the tech-related gains were eventually wiped out.
ASX 200 bucked the trend amid outperformance in defensives and as participants reflected on Rio Tinto's earnings and softer-than-expected inflation data, which saw an unwinding of RBA rate hike bets.
Nikkei 225 initially rallied amid early tech momentum and reports the government will finalise a food sales tax cut next month, but then slipped into the red as tech stocks reversed course.
KOSPI suffered at the whim of tech fluctuations, with stocks initially buoyed following mixed results from SK Hynix, which beat on Q2 net, but missed on oper. profit and revenue, stoking concerns of lofty expectations, despite oper. profit jumping 557%. However, the index then slumped and eventually triggered circuit breakers
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hang Seng driven by Chinese automakers/EV names, while the mainland is subdued amid ongoing trade-related frictions.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

South Korean Lawmaker said Finance Minister, BoK Governor and Financial regulatory Chiefs to meet on Thursday afternoon.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary said Govt. will not pre-determine whether to use reserve funds for earthquake relief.
Japanese PM Takaichi plans to cut food sales tax to 1% for two years starting April 2027, while government will finalise plan in August.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%).
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Jun) Y/Y 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%).
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI MoM (Jun) M/M 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%).
Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) Y/Y 3.9% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%).
Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.4%).
Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q2) Y/Y 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.5%).
Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%).

NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES

SK Hynix (000660 KS) Q2 (KRW) net 93.8tln (exp. 54.5tln), oper. profit 60.5tln (exp. 64.2tln), rev. 79.0tln (exp. 84.0tln). said:. Q2 NAND average selling price up mid-50% vs Q1. Q2 DRAM average selling price up about 30% vs Q1. Market demand for DRAM to rise mid-20% Y/Y and NAND to rise high-teen % Y/Y in 2026.