US equity futures rebound as US 30yr yield slips below 5.25%; Oil flat with newsflow light - Newsquawk US Market Open

US equity futures rebound heading into the final trading session of the week.
DXY returns to Thursday's low; Antipodeans outperform, EUR and GBP muted following broadly strong PMIs.
US 30yr yield slips below 5.25%, lifting Spot Gold and Bitcoin to key levels.
Energy benchmarks lower amid light geopolitical newsflow.
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), US S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit rating updates from Fitch on Poland, Moody's on the Netherlands and Sweden.

As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses begin the final trading session of the week with broad gains, with the blue chip EuroStoxx 50 set to break its 5-day losing streak. Volumes remain light as the Summer season. On the data front, despite mixed French and German PMIs, the EZ figure printed stronger-than-expected across the board, with clear strength in the manufacturing sector. Commentary by S&P highlighted the effect of the heatwave on the services sector. For the ECB, S&P stated that the hawkish bias should remain giving the solid Q3 GDP growth, renewed hiring and elevated inflation.
Sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, given the resurgence of precious metals (spot gold +1.5%). Construction and Autos round out the outperformers. To the downside is Health Care, with Media and Financial Services completing the sector laggards.
US equity futures are firmer across the board. Overnight, Nvidia denied a report by The Information that it plans to ship a China-specific language processing unit by year-end, stating it has no LPU sales in China and no China-specific LPU product on its roadmap while Bloomberg reported earlier that the Co. is in prelim. talks with a South Korean chip designer over a partnership. For Broadcom, the Co. is in talks with lenders to raise over USD 60bln in senior secured debt for an AI chip financing deal.
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FX

G10s are entirely firmer against the Buck with Antipodeans the clear outperformers after China signalled further fiscal measures; CAD and NOK helped by oil prices which eke gains.
DXY sits at the lower end of its 98.56-98.84 range, with the recent move lower coinciding with the gradual downside seen in global bond yields. In the prior session, Buck saw some modest weakness after Bessent hinted at further measures to temper yields, action which was reversed through the US afternoon, but an area which DXY has returned to this morning.
As expected, July's UK Retail metrics were weak, echoing the BRC monitor for the same period. And despite the 3M commentary around the weather, the ongoing heatwave and end of the World Cup appear to have hit activity. For the BoE, the print does not change the narrative, and instead we look to Flash PMIs later today. Cable saw around 8 pips of downside after the data, action which was swiftly pared in choppy trade. Flash PMIs failed to spur a reaction, despite broadly printing further into expansionary territory. With GBP/USD breaching the resistance at 1.3654, chartists will be focused on the next resistance high at 1.3712.
EZ flash PMIs supported the bullish EUR bias today as figures indicating solid third quarter GDP growth, a return to hiring by companies for the first time this year, and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards. EUR/USD looks to Thursday's 1.1710 high, thereafter, resistance around 1.1750.
Antipodeans outperform after China’s Vice Finance Minister pledged to roll out additional fiscal policy measures, remarks which follow similar rhetoric from July’s Politburo meeting. Attention will be on further measures to be released in the coming days, which could continue to help the Antipodes. AUD and NZD each firmer by 0.6% against the Buck, with Aussie looking to 0.72, Kiwi eyeing 0.5980, thereafter 0.60.

FIXED INCOME

Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, but with price action tentative and trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier action was muted, though US30yr has been gradually falling as the morning progressed. The US 30yr resides at 5.23% vs yesterday’s peak at 5.26% and off near-term highs at 5.33%.
USTs (+3 ticks) hold within a very narrow 108-14 to 108-17+ range. The lack of news flow and the ongoing summer lull have led to thin ranges, but later markets will have US PMI metrics to digest, as well as an appearance from President Trump. Elsewhere, the US10yr (4.68%) also moves lower this morning, lacking a clear catalyst. A factor which has led to a decline in the USD, whilst spot gold and Bitcoin have moved to highs.
Bunds (+2 ticks) are also trading steady this session. The European benchmark has had regional and EZ-wide PMI metrics to digest this morning, whereby the French and German releases were subject to poor Services components, whilst Manufacturing topped expectations.
Elsewhere in Europe, the EZ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) figure fell from the prior, which will be welcomed by policymakers at the ECB – but unlikely to push away calls for a September hike. On the inflation front, the latest ECB SCE saw 1- and 3-year expectations fall from the prior.
Gilt (-4 ticks) price action essentially echoes the above. UK Retail Sales were weak, whilst the PMIs mildly topped expectations. The accompanying report, “the data suggest the Bank of England looks likely to keep a hawkish bias but will stay cautious, holding off any rate hikes until the growth and inflation trajectories become clearer”. The release saw downticks of c. 7 ticks, but this proved fleeting.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent futures trade on a softer footing amid a pullback from yesterday’s surge, and as geopolitical headlines quieten down, for now, heading into the weekend. Major updates have been light this morning. Reports via the Jerusalem Post suggested security officials see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Meanwhile, the report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume. Near-term catalysts remain dependent on US-Iran developments, with the next inflection points likely coming from any surprise weekend military action, Iran’s response to US economic pressure, or any updates on diplomacy.
WTI Oct currently resides around session lows in a USD 85.95-86.94/bbl range, after printing USD 85.23-87.69/bbl range yesterday. Brent Oct sits in a USD 92.97-94.00/bbl range after printing a USD 91.47-94.71/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF, conversely, keeps rising, with European storage replenishment also on traders’ minds. Dutch TTF has risen to a current high above EUR 66.50/MWh from levels under EUR 65/MWh earlier this morning.
Metals are higher across the board and are cheering continued weakness in the USD, with woes for the Buck this week compounded by the mid-week US Treasury buyback announcement. Spot gold found support at its 200 DMA (USD 4,514/oz) and currently trades towards the top of a USD 4,509-4,602/oz range, with the next upside level the psychological USD 4,600/oz. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 68.50/oz) and eyes USD 70/oz to the upside in a USD 67.91-69.92/oz range. Base metals are similarly firmer across the board, with 3M LME copper towards the upper end of a USD 14,050.90-14,194.08/t.
Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reported.

TRADE/TARIFFS

China's Ministry of Finance is preparing a new round of economic talks with Canada.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Jul): 1-year inflation expectation: 2.9% (prev. 3%), 3-year inflation expectation: 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 5-year inflation expectation: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%).
European Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) 2.44% (Q/Q Rev. 2.56%, Prev. 2.48%).
Germany's VDMA said German Machinery exports fell 0.8% Y/Y in H1'26. Geopolitical crises, tariffs, and weak demand in certain countries are collectively weighing on foreign trade in the machinery sector.
UK Chancellor Healey has been warned by investors and analysts to limit budget borrowing and not to relent in efforts to reduce the UK's fiscal deficit amid bond sell-off, according to FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

European S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 52.0).
European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 52.8 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 51.9).
European S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7).
German S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.3).
German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 54.1 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 52.2).
German S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 48.5 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 49.8).
French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 48.8 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.4).
French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.8).
French S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.6).
French Business Climate Indicator (Aug) 98 vs. Exp. 98 (Prev. 97).
UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.2).
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.9).
UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.8 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.1).
UK Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.7%).
UK Retail Sales (Jul YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 3.8%).
UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Jul MM) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.9%).
UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Jul YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 5.0%).
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) ex-Banks (Jul) 1.8B vs. Exp. 0B (Rev. 12.8B, Prev. 16.0bln).
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -14 vs. Exp. -18 (Prev. -17).

CENTRAL BANKS

ECB's Kazaks said he sees wage growth gradually slowing and that the ECB is well placed to act, if needed.
BoK's new senior deputy governor Kwon said growth is improving more than expected, inflation is exceeding target and financial stability risks remain, while he added that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed due to FX volatility and geopolitical risks. Kwon stated he doesn't want to define himself as a hawk or dove, and will make decisions based on circumstances and data.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms, Jerusalem Post reported. The report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume.
US President Trump said on Michael Cohen's podcast that the US is essentially and soon controlling the strait, while he said Iran has some missiles and drones, but low capacity to build.
US VP Vance responded that their main focus is not really on that, when asked how long Iran could withstand economic pressure, while he added that Iran is under a lot of pressure, which helps achieve our goal of making sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
Iranian Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said Iran must draw up plans to overcome unjust sanctions in order to defeat them.
Yemen's Houthis said they targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco facility.
Yemeni Armed Forces announce the targeting Houthi heavy equipment and fortifications, according to Al Arabiya.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Russia's Perm and a military base in Marinovka.

OTHER

North Korea reportedly fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles in its third missile launch this month, hours after rejecting US President Trump's overtures.
Japan, US and South Korea held a phone call regarding North Korea missile launch.
China and Indonesia will expand joint-military exercises and will work together to accelerate the modernisation of their respective armed forces, according to Indonesia’s Defence Minister.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin continues its surge higher as US yields pull back and short squeeze continues, topping just shy of USD 80k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was dampened amid a rebound in yields and Walmart's weak sales growth.
ASX 200 traded with mild losses amid another deluge of earnings and mostly softer flash PMI data.
Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is well off today's worst levels, with participants digesting the latest inflation data from Japan, which mostly matched estimates and remained below the 2% price target, but accelerated from the previous and could support the case for further BoJ rate hikes.
KOSPI clawed back early losses with price action driven by the tech heavyweights, with SK Hynix considering building a memory chip plant in Japan's Miyagi prefecture and with Samsung Electronics expected to announce a KRW 100tln shareholder return plan today. In addition, the comments from BoK's newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Kwon were less hawkish than his predecessor, in which he stated that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark in the green and its biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases, while the mainland struggled for direction despite China's Vice Finance Minister flagging incremental policies and the PBoC resuming 7-day reverse repo operations for the first time in more than a week.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China's Vice Finance Minister Liao said they will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments. Liao added that a greater share of fiscal spending will be directed towards households and consumption.
PBoC reportedly to "survey" some mutual funds regarding long-dated bonds, sources suggested.
Japan's Finance Ministry is considering setting an assumed interest rate at 3.8% for calculating debt servicing costs in the FY27/28 budget request, Nikkei reported.
Japanese PM Takaichi said an economy that is growing will experience a certain level of inflation. Japan has the lowest inflation among G7 nations due in part to the effect of government steps.
Japan's LDP cabinet reshuffle is likely to occur in the latter half of September, Kyodo reported citing sources. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara is expected to retain their position

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

Japanese Core CPI (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%).
Japanese CPI (Jul YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.6%).
Japanese CPI (Jul MM) 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%).
Japanese CPI Ex-Food and Energy (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%).
Japanese Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 53.40 (Prev. 52.7).
Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 55.1 vs. Exp. 55.1 (Prev. 54.5).
Japanese Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.3 (Prev. 51.2).
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.5 (Prev. 53.2).
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 52.0 (Prev. 52.0).
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.9 (Prev. 53.6).
New Zealand Trade Balance (Jul) -1.9B vs. Exp. -0.175B (Prev. 0.02B).