US stocks and bonds declined, while the dollar surged after the Fed hiked rates - Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were pressured and the major indices largely finished lower, although the Nasdaq was little changed, while the Dow lagged and the RSP fell 0.8%. Sectors were predominantly in the red with Energy, Financials and Materials lagging, while Tech, Health Care and Utilities outperformed, albeit with minimal gains. The overall reaction to the FOMC rate decision and press conference was hawkish. The Fed hiked rates by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, while the median projection saw another hike by year-end before rates remain on hold throughout 2027. The statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, a message echoed by Chair Warsh in the press conference against the backdrop of a labour market at or near full employment and strong economic growth.
• USD saw strength and surged to session highs in the wake of the latest FOMC confab, resulting in a broad hawkish reaction across markets. Overall, the Fed hiked rates 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision. In the updated SEPs, the median sees another 25bps hike in 2026, and is at 4.125% through end-2027, implying one further hike this year followed by rates remaining on hold throughout 2027, before easing to 3.875% in 2028 and 3.625% in 2029. In the Chair Warsh presser, the overall message was a familiar one, with price stability the primary focus.
• Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand GDP, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Supply from Australia.

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include New Zealand GDP, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Supply from Australia.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

FOMC

• Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. Fed said inflation remains elevated (prev. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy"). It also stated that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust. The statement added that "while uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient." Fed also stated that "today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability."
• FOMC Summary of Economic Projections showed only 18 of 19 members submitted forecasts, with expectations that Warsh would not submit forecasts, while the Fed Funds Rate in 2026 is seen at 4.1% (exp. 3.875%, prev. 3.8%), 2027 at 4.1% (exp. 3.875%, prev. 3.6%), 2028 at 3.9% (exp. 3.375%, prev. 3.4%), 2029 at 3.6% (exp. 3.375%) and longer run at 3.2% (exp. 3.125%, prev. 3.1%). Distribution of dots for 2026 showed 12 see one hike to 4.125%, four see two hikes to 4.375%, and two see rates unchanged at 3.875%, while distribution of dots for 2027 showed six see one hike to 4.125%, eight see two hikes to 4.375%, three see one cut to 3.625%, and one sees three cuts to 3.125%.
• Fed Chair Warsh said the decision comes when the economy appears to be strengthening and is pointing in a good direction, while he added they would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive, which was a view widely shared by the committee, so they removed a dose of accommodation. Warsh said inflation has been running above target for more than 5 years, and the predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate, adding the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been, for too long, while the committee's unanimous vote shows resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis.
• Fed Chair Warsh reiterated in the Q&A that inflation is the problem, as well as stated that price stability is foundational to growth and that today, they took a step in delivering it. Warsh responded, when asked what changed between now and July, that data has shown the economy has strengthened and at Jackson Hole said inflation trends weren't passing the test, and seeing very little information since to reverse that, so have stuck with it. Furthermore, when asked whether he sees rates as restrictive, he reiterated that he found it difficult to describe financial conditions as restrictive and hard-pressed, and around the table his colleagues were hard-pressed to describe it that way too. He also sees three reasons for the rise in bond yields, which were economic strength, capital expenditures and geopolitics.

IRAN CONFLICT

• Iranian FM Aragchi said "The memorandum of understanding with America is in effect and we want to return to a peaceful solution", adding "We are not interested in continuing the conflict and we look forward to returning to a diplomatic solution."
• Iranian Foreign Minister reiterated Iran is fully prepared to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity, national security and interests against aggressors, while welcoming diplomatic solutions that secure the rights of the Iranian people.
• Iran's Major General Rezaei said "there will be no negotiations until Iran's conditions are met".
• IRGC Navy political deputy said no vessel in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz or Sea of Oman moves outside the supervision of the IRGC Navy, adding that Iran can target any vessel anywhere if it wishes, IRNA reports.
• Iranian MP said "Iran has the upper hand and is in charge of managing the Strait of Hormuz is now an indisputable principle and an objective reality".
• US officials reportedly met with Yemeni Houthis in Oman over the weekend, with Houthis telling the US they remain committed to the 2025 ceasefire, according to sources.
• Houthis claimed responsibility for the recent Saudi attack, saying they carried out two military operations targeting Saudi Aramco in Yanbu with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones and Khamis Mushait Air Base with a number of ballistic missiles.
• Israeli intelligence officials do not favour entering war against Houthis at this point or launching pre-emptive strikes in Yemen, Al-Monitor reports.
• Djibouti's Foreign Minister told Al Jazeera, "We have not yet recorded any disruption in Bab al-Mandab and navigation is continuing normally." Djibouti will continue to provide the necessary guarantees for the free and safe use of ships and tankers through Bab al-Mandab.

US TRADE

• US stocks were pressured and the major indices largely finished lower, although the Nasdaq was little changed, while the Dow lagged and the RSP fell 0.8%. Sectors were predominantly in the red with Energy, Financials and Materials lagging, while Tech, Health Care and Utilities outperformed, albeit with minimal gains. The overall reaction to the FOMC rate decision and press conference was hawkish. The Fed hiked rates by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, while the median projection saw another hike by year-end before rates remain on hold throughout 2027. The statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, a message echoed by Chair Warsh in the press conference against the backdrop of a labour market at or near full employment and strong economic growth.
• SPX -0.40% at 7,555, NDX +0.03% at 28,945, DJI -1.21% at 51,463, RUT -0.32% at 2,861.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is open to discussing shared risks with China in upcoming AI talks this weekend.
• US has identified Mexico and China as major drug transit countries, according to reports.
• German government spokesperson said Germany is open to discussing new partnership models between the EU and Canada, but added that the term associate member needs to be rethought.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump posted that interest rates in the US should be 1% or less and urged to "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!"
• US House GOP leadership is reportedly considering cancelling Thursday's votes and going home until after the election to avoid a vote on the impeachment of US DoW Secretary Hegseth, according to Washington Sun's Gorman.
• US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said the agency is preparing to open New Mexico port to livestock imports next week after closure due to new world screwworm.

DATA RECAP

• US Retail Sales MoM (Aug) 1.2% vs Exp. 0.8% (prev. -0.6%).
• US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Aug) 1.4% vs Exp. 0.5% (prev. -0.2%).
• US Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Aug) (MM): 1.4% vs Exp. 0.4% (prev. -0.4%).
• US Import Prices MoM (Aug)(MM) 0.7% (exp. 0.4%, prev. -0.3%, rev. from -0.4%).
• US Export Prices MoM (Aug)(MM): 0.6% (exp. 0.5%, prev.-1.4%, rev. from -1.3%).

FX

• USD saw strength and surged to session highs in the wake of the latest FOMC confab, resulting in a broad hawkish reaction across markets. Overall, the Fed hiked rates 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision. In the updated SEPs, the median sees another 25bps hike in 2026, and is at 4.125% through end-2027, implying one further hike this year followed by rates remaining on hold throughout 2027, before easing to 3.875% in 2028 and 3.625% in 2029. In the Chair Warsh presser, the overall message was a familiar one, with price stability the primary focus.
• EUR slumped to sub-1.1500 territory as the buck strengthened in the wake of the hawkish Fed.
• GBP was also pressured and retreated beneath the 1.3400 handle, while in-line CPI data from the UK is unlikely to shift views for the BoE's MPC at Thursday’s confab, where rates are expected to be held steady in a 6-3 vote split.
• JPY weakened as all focus was on the Fed policy announcement, with USD/JPY climbing north of the 136.00 level, while the BoJ is set to kick off its 2-day policy meeting where the central bank is seen to be backed into a corner and expected to hike rates following rare joint currency intervention in July and rhetoric from officials, including pressure from the US.
• BoC Minutes showed Governing Council members agreed near-term inflation was likely to remain elevated. Members agreed monetary policy would be guided by the BoC's inflation forecast and risks around it, while persistently high gasoline prices and the Iran conflict had raised market expectations for oil prices. Members also saw a higher risk of inflation spreading to non-energy goods and services in Canada.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled lower and the yield curve flattened after a hawkish FOMC.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices pared some of Tuesday's extensive strength, as participants await further Middle East or supply updates, while there were few headline catalysts for the downside, coupled with an unexpected chunky crude build in the weekly private inventory metrics.
• US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep/11) -0.64M vs Exp. -1.6M (prev. -0.391M).
• US Energy Secretary Wright said 18mln barrels of oil went through Hormuz on Tuesday. Wright added the US is considering invoking the DPA to boost refining capacity, US oil companies will discuss investments in Venezuela today, and daily oil data covers both refined products and crude oil.
• Two pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline were damaged in an attack last week, with the timeline unclear for pumping stations 8 and 9. Separately, Saudi Arabia reportedly looks to resume half of the key oil pipeline within days.
• Libya's NOC Chief said production has returned to normal levels after shutdowns at three oil fields reduced output for a limited time. Conditions are currently normal, and no further shutdowns are anticipated.
• Iran's oil minister said reconstruction of damaged oil-industry facilities is progressing well.
• Peru's Energy and Mines Ministry said copper production rose 3.7% Y/Y.
• Venezuela is preparing shipments of aluminium products to the US market, sources suggest.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Pakistan Foreign Ministry lodged a strong protest over Indian naval provocation in its Exclusive Economic Zone, saying that while Pakistan Navy was undertaking a biennial exercise, an Indian vessel carried out aggressive manoeuvres in close proximity.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Russia is prepared to agree to an energy ceasefire, it must bar any attacks on energy infrastructure in any form.
• Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesman said President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet during the UNGA.
• US Treasury has removed some Russia-related designations from its sanctions list.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japan's Financial Services Agency requested regional banks strengthen loan management, Kyodo reports.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham said inflation is a concern, but the UK economy is showing resilience, adding the Chancellor and "I" will take these issues into the budget.
• ECB's Pereira said natural gas prices are being closely watched, specifically if winter is cold, adding inflation is not broadening as widely as in the past but will be watched closely.
• German Economy Minister said it would be sensible to reduce VAT on fuel from 19% to 7%, while adding that a cap on fuel prices is the wrong approach.
• Italian PM Meloni said Italy extends tax cut on diesel to October 5th.
• Sweden election authority said centre-left parties widen lead, with the count indicating 176 seats for centre-left parties versus 173 for the right-wing bloc as counting continues

DATA RECAP

• UK CPI (Aug YY) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 2.9%); Services CPI 3.4% (prev. 3.4%)
• UK Core CPI (Aug YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
• European Industrial Production (Jul MM) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
• European Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.3%)
• European Labour Cost Index Final (Q2 YY) 3.10% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.20%)
• European Wage Growth (Q2 YY) 3.00% (Prev. 3.40%)