US stocks edged mild gains despite President Trump's Tuesday evening deadline for Iran - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks returned from the Easter weekend in positive territory, despite higher yields and upside in oil. Markets had much to digest after Friday's stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, which helped ease recent labour market concerns. Nonetheless, focus remained on the Middle East with US President Trump giving Iran until Tuesday at 20:00 EDT to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a deal or face US strikes on Iranian energy and power facilities, as well as bridges across the country, while he warned that if Iran did not meet the deadline, the US would take out Iran within four hours, and War Secretary Hegseth said Monday had seen the highest volume of strikes on Iran so far and that Tuesday would be even larger. Despite the threats, markets were more optimistic about the prospects for a deal after Trump said negotiators in Iran wanted to reach one, despite an earlier pushback from Iran's Foreign Ministry, in which Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal from the US and responded with a 10-point plan, although Trump said that it was not good enough.
USD was mostly weaker against G10 peers as the Middle East war again dominated price action and sentiment at the start of the week. Trump set Iran a final deadline of 20:00 EDT on Tuesday, saying that otherwise they would hit all bridges, energy infrastructure and power plants in Iran, adding that "the entire country can be taken out in one night - and that night might be tomorrow night". Despite the tough rhetoric, risk sentiment improved after Trump said talks were going well and that they wanted to make a deal, even though Iran had earlier rejected that, saying no rational person would agree to the ceasefire. All attention on Tuesday will be on that deadline and whether Trump follows through on his threats if no deal is reached. Elsewhere, ISM Services was the only other notable release and prompted two-way price action in the greenback. The headline index fell by much more than expected, while the inflation gauge of prices paid surged, likely because of geopolitical issues. Business activity for March also fell, rounding off a weak report.
Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Services & Composite PMI, Japanese Household Spending, Labour Cash Earnings & Leading Index, New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices, Philippines CPI, Australian Household Spending, Supply from Japan, Holiday Closure in Hong Kong.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

Highlights include Australian Services & Composite PMI, Japanese Household Spending, Labour Cash Earnings & Leading Index, New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices, Philippines CPI, Australian Household Spending, Supply from Japan, Holiday Closure in Hong Kong.
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

US President Trump said he thinks talks are going well with Iran and reiterated the Tuesday, 7th April 20:00EDT deadline. Trump said regarding Iran talks that they have an active and willing participant on the other side, while they would like to be able to make a deal, but added that he can't talk about a ceasefire and hopes he does not have to strike infrastructure. Trump said on taking Iran's oil that "to the victor belongs the spoils", and he would rather that they charge tolls than Iran in the Strait, and they have a concept where the US will charge Hormuz tolls. Furthermore, Trump said the US has plans to decimate Iran's bridges by Tuesday night, and he threatened that every power plant will be out of business at midnight, in which decimation would happen over a four-hour period, but added they don't want that to happen and it would take 100 years to rebuild.
US President Trump said the Tuesday deadline is final and he has seen every proposal, while he added that Iran’s proposal is a big step, but not good enough, and we will see what happens. Trump stated the war could end very quickly if they do the things they need to do, and if he had his choice, he would take Iran's oil. Furthermore, he said if Iran does not yield, it will not have bridges or power plants, as well as stated that they could leave right now, but he wants to finish it up.
US President Trump said on the Iran deadline it will not be moved again and have not signed any ceasefire, while when asked about striking Iran's infrastructure and whether it would be a war crime, he said no because "they are animals." He added that Iran would like to have a ceasefire because they are getting obliterated, and said they have given Iran chances, they have not taken them, and will see how they behave.
US President Trump said Iran can be taken out in one night, which might be Tuesday night, and that the entire country could be taken out in one night. It was separately reported that Trump reiterated that Iran has until Tuesday night to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise he would destroy all of Iran's bridges and power plants, according to The Wall Street Journal.
US War Secretary Hegseth said today will be the largest volume of strikes since day one of the Iran operation, and said tomorrow will be even more.
US military is making preparations for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal citing multiple US officials, while an official said that there are many energy targets in Iran with a military nexus, and that an energy source could be considered a legitimate military target if it has been used for military purposes, for instance if it is being used to provide fuel for mobile rocket launchers, according to The Wall Street Journal.
White House official said the plan for a 45-day ceasefire between the US and Iran is "one of many ideas” being discussed at the moment, and that the President has not signed off on it, according to Axios's Ravid.
US official said Iran sent on Monday a 10-point response for the proposal to end the war, while the response was said to be "maximalist" and unclear if it will allow moving forward to a diplomatic solution, according to Axios's Ravid.
Iran responded to the US proposal on ending the war via Pakistan and has rejected the ceasefire, while it seeks a permanent end to the war and a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction and lifting of sanctions, according to IRNA.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the 15-point plan proposed by the US is extremely ambitious, unreasonable and illogical, and said Iran wrote down a set of demands based on its own interests and considerations, while the Iranian Foreign Ministry demand an end to the war and said no rational person would agree to the ceasefire.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, in a call with Qatari counterpart, said Iran is interested in developing ties and said current situation is strictly due to US-Israeli aggression, while two Qatar LNG Tankers headed toward the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning were among those Iran allowed to transit under an Iran-US agreement reached last week via Pakistan, although IRGC stopped Qatar tankers before transit and ordered them to hold position without an explanation, according to source reports.
Iranian senior official said Tehran will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision and will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’, while the official believes that the US lacks readiness for a permanent ceasefire, according to Reuters.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the targeting of American and Israeli operations command headquarters and industrial infrastructure, while it added that an amphibious assault ship was targeted, according to the Iraqi News Agency.
Iranian military spokesman warned of stronger, wider retaliation after attacks on civilian targets, according to Fars News.
Iran said that the Marvdasht Petrochemical Complex was targeted and a fire was caused, but there was no significant damage.
Iran will allow ships from some friendly nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for security fees, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the risks of such a move, according to Axios citing an official, while Trump told Netanyahu that if Iran agrees to the US demands a ceasefire could happen, but stressed he will not give up on his demand that Iran hand over all of its enriched Uranium and agree not to resume enrichment, according to Axios.
Israeli Defence Ministry said the military has been instructed to continue striking Iranian national infrastructure with full force.
Two Israeli sources and diplomats familiar with the details of the talks said there is a very low chance of an agreement between Iran and the US, according to Amichai Stein.
Explosions were heard from South Pars Petrochemical in Asalouye, according to Fars.
SNN reported the sound of huge explosions in Abu Dhabi.

US TRADE

US stocks returned from the Easter weekend in positive territory, despite higher yields and upside in oil. Markets had much to digest after Friday's stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, which helped ease recent labour market concerns. Nonetheless, focus remained on the Middle East with US President Trump giving Iran until Tuesday at 20:00 EDT to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a deal or face US strikes on Iranian energy and power facilities, as well as bridges across the country, while he warned that if Iran did not meet the deadline, the US would take out Iran within four hours, and War Secretary Hegseth said Monday had seen the highest volume of strikes on Iran so far and that Tuesday would be even larger. Despite the threats, markets were more optimistic about the prospects for a deal after Trump said negotiators in Iran wanted to reach one, despite an earlier pushback from Iran's Foreign Ministry, in which Iran rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal from the US and responded with a 10-point plan, although Trump said that it was not good enough.
SPX +0.43% at 6,611, NDX +0.61% at 24,192, DJI +0.35% at 46,669, RUT +0.44% at 2,541.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Fed's Hammack (2026 Voter) and Goolsbee (2027 Voter) both see inflation as a bigger problem than employment, according to Reuters citing a joint interview with Planet Money podcast. Hammack said "Inflation is bright orange" and said inflation been running above target for five years and has been "basically moving sideways" for the past two, while on the jobs market she said unemployment rate is the best indicator and is currently sat around where she estimates full employment should be but it is a fragile type of balance, while she added that the outlook is yellow to green.
Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said inflation is at least orange and it has not been great, while he was optimistic inflation would get back on path to the target, but noted it is going from orange to red amid tariffs and energy price shocks. Goolsbee also stated that the labour market is "yellow" because of its low-hiring, low-firing state amid ongoing uncertainty. Furthermore, he said the financial system is yellow, and he is happy with the payment systems but "a little more anxious" about asset prices.

DATA RECAP

US ISM Services PMI (Mar) 54.0 vs. Exp. 55 (Prev. 56.1, Low. 53, High. 56.8)
US ISM Services Business Activity (Mar) 53.9 (Prev. 59.9)
US ISM Services New Orders (Mar) 60.6 (Prev. 58.6)
US ISM Services Prices (Mar) 70.7 (Prev. 63.0)
US ISM Services Employment (Mar) 45.2 (Prev. 51.8)

FX

USD was mostly weaker against G10 peers as the Middle East war again dominated price action and sentiment at the start of the week. Trump set Iran a final deadline of 20:00 EDT on Tuesday, saying that otherwise they would hit all bridges, energy infrastructure and power plants in Iran, adding that "the entire country can be taken out in one night - and that night might be tomorrow night". Despite the tough rhetoric, risk sentiment improved after Trump said talks were going well and that they wanted to make a deal, even though Iran had earlier rejected that, saying no rational person would agree to the ceasefire. All attention on Tuesday will be on that deadline and whether Trump follows through on his threats if no deal is reached. Elsewhere, ISM Services was the only other notable release and prompted two-way price action in the greenback. The headline index fell by much more than expected, while the inflation gauge of prices paid surged, likely because of geopolitical issues. Business activity for March also fell, rounding off a weak report.
EUR benefitted from the dollar weakness, but is off the earlier highs with currency-specific newsflow light as much of Europe remained closed for Easter Monday.
GBP gradually climbed and reclaimed the 1.3200 status amid outperformance in cyclicals, but with further upside capped by a lack of catalysts for the UK, where markets were also shut for the holiday.
JPY traded indecisively and gave back early gains with the yen pressured amid higher oil prices.

FIXED INCOME

T-note futures were little changed from Friday’s post-NFP levels, while the curve bear flattened as stronger US data and elevated inflation signals kept yields higher, particularly at the front-end.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices were firmer as US participants returned from the long weekend to comments by Trump giving Iran a "final" deadline of 20:00 EDT on Tuesday to make a deal.
Satellite images showed a massive fire across oil fields in the United Arab Emirates, namely the Habshan, Asab and Bu Hasa oil and gas, according to Fars News. However, ADNOC Gas said the affected area at the Habshan complex was isolated following an attack, and customer supply remains uninterrupted through other facilities.
Israel's natural gas flows to Egypt have returned to levels seen since before the Iranian war started, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
Brazil will announce new measures on Monday to address the effects of war in the Middle East in the fuel sector.

GEOPOLITICAL

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Ukrainian drones reportedly started a fire at the Sheskharis oil terminal at Russia's Novorossiysk overnight, according to sources.
Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine attacked facilities at the Maritime Transhipment Complex in Novorossiysk overnight and said CPC Mooring point was damaged, while four oil product reservoirs caught fire, and said SPMs oil pipeline and loading berth of CPC are damaged, according to Ifx.

OTHER

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un reportedly considers South Korean President Lee as expressing a frank and bold attitude and suggested that Lee was wise to show regret regarding the drone flight to North Korea, according to KCNA.

EU/UK