US stocks finished lower in a choppy start to the month, while crypto tumbled - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks ultimately finished the first session of December in the red following a choppy session with equity futures sold overnight alongside caution in APAC trade in response to soft China PMIs. Pressure extended once Europe arrived, with the DAX lagging amid a downward revision to the German manufacturing PMI. However, around the opening bell, the risk tone in equities started to improve throughout the afternoon, before fading into the closing bell.
• USD was ultimately flat as JPY outperformance was offset by weakness in GBP, CHF, and CAD, while the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed a surprise decline in the headline, indicating a worsening outlook for the sector amid declines in New Orders and Employment, although Prices Paid was firmer than expected.
• Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean CPI, Japanese Monetary Base & Household Confidence, Australian Building Approvals, Current Account & Net Exports Contribution to GDP, Comments from Fed Chair Powell on George Shultz and his Economic Policy Contributions, Supply from Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include South Korean CPI, Japanese Monetary Base & Household Confidence, Australian Building Approvals, Current Account & Net Exports Contribution to GDP, Comments from Fed Chair Powell on George Shultz and his Economic Policy Contributions, Supply from Japan.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks ultimately finished the first session of December in the red following a choppy session with equity futures sold overnight alongside caution in APAC trade in response to soft China PMIs. Pressure extended once Europe arrived, with the DAX lagging amid a downward revision to the German manufacturing PMI. However, around the opening bell, the risk tone in equities started to improve throughout the afternoon, before fading into the closing bell.
• SPX -0.53% at 6,813, NDX -0.36% at 25,343, DJI -0.89% at 47,289, RUT -1.25% at 2,469.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• USTR confirmed an agreement in principle on pharmaceutical pricing between the US and UK, while the deal also secured continued UK investment by UK pharma companies in the US. USTR said the Trump admin is reviewing drug pricing practices of many other US trading partners and hopes they will follow suit with constructive negotiations. Furthermore, the deal calls for the NHS to increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%, while the US is to exempt UK-origin pharma from Section 232 tariffs.
• EU dropped its complaint against Chinese trade curbs on Lithuania at the WTO.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed December 2025 Supervision and Regulation Report stated the US banking system continues to maintain strong capital and liquidity levels while maintaining strong profitability and healthy loan growth. It stated that US banks are well-positioned to continue to support a growing economy and maintain strong capital levels, while liquidity and funding conditions are stable. Furthermore, it stated that loan growth was strong as most major loan categories experienced declines in delinquency rates.
• White House said US President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting on Tuesday and will make an announcement on the Trump Accounts.
• US Senator Cassidy said President Trump will sign a "Support Act" today.

DATA RECAP

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 52.2 (Prev. 51.9)
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.7)
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Nov) 47.4 (Prev. 49.4)
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (Nov) 44.0 (Prev. 46.0)
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Nov) 58.5 vs. Exp. 57.0 (Prev. 58.0)

FX

• USD was ultimately flat as JPY outperformance was offset by weakness in GBP, CHF, and CAD, while the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed a surprise decline in the headline, indicating a worsening outlook for the sector amid declines in New Orders and Employment, although Prices Paid was firmer than expected.
• EUR eked slight gains and was unfazed by mixed PMI data, while ECB rhetoric continued to underscore the unlikelihood of any near-term policy adjustments.
• GBP ultimately weakened after failing to hold onto earlier strength, which was somewhat supported by the UK and US agreeing to a zero-tariff pharma deal, but calls for the UK NHS to increase the net price it pays for new medicines by 25%
• JPY outperformed following the recent hawkish rhetoric from BoJ Governor Ueda, while Morgan Stanley believes the likelihood of a December rate hike has further increased and cited the unusual move from the Governor to refer to a specific meeting in his speech.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes were lower across the curve on Monday, with global fixed income weighed on overnight after BoJ Governor Ueda hinted at a December rate hike, while rising crude prices bolstered inflation expectations, and there was also a slew of corporate issuances.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices rose following the OPEC+ decision to pause output through Q1 2026, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, and diminishing US-Venezuela relations, with President Trump to hold a meeting with the national security team on Venezuela in which many options are said to be on the table.
• OPEC Secretariat received updated compensation plans from Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, according to a statement.
• Saudi Energy Minister said the latest OPEC+ decision is the most important and transparent in deciding the production level, while he added that the achievement in the last meeting is a turning point.
• Saudi Arabia's Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry launched a new 13k SQ KM mineral exploration bidding round in which it targets gold, copper and base metals in new exploration belts in five regions.
• Russia Deputy PM Novak said the situation in the oil market is stable thanks to OPEC+ and noted oil demand is lower in the winter, while he also commented that OPEC+ are roughly 500k bpd behind their target, according to IFX.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• US President Trump held a phone call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and invited him to meet at the White House in the near future.
• US Envoy Barrack confirmed in a message to Iraq that Israel's operation in Lebanon will continue until Hezbollah is disarmed, while he warned Iraq of a harsh Israeli blow if the factions intervene alongside Hezbollah, according to Al Hadath.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said territorial issues are the most challenging in the discussions, while he hopes to have talks with US President Trump after Special Envoy Witkoff’s visit to Russia.
• Russia's Kremlin said Russian President Putin is due to meet US Envoy Witkoff on Tuesday.
• White House said the administration is very optimistic about Ukraine and had very good talks with the Ukrainian delegation in Florida.
• French President Macron discussed the situation in Ukraine with US President Trump and emphasised the central importance of the security guarantees needed for Ukraine.
• French President Macron said over the next few days, there will be more discussions between the US and Ukrainian allies on security guarantees, while he added that they will find the option to use Russian assets.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said the situation at the border with Belarus is worsening, and the EU is preparing further measures under its sanctions regime.
• German Chancellor Merz announced a plan for Poland and Germany to sign an agreement on defence in 2026, while Merz added that Germany is working with Poland to use frozen Russian assets.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday.

OTHER

• US President Trump is to host an Oval Office meeting related to Venezuela on Monday evening, which is expected to take place at 22:00 GMT / 17:00 EST, with Secretary of Defense Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Caine and Secretary of State Rubio expected to attend, according to CNN. White House also confirmed that US President Trump is to hold a meeting with the national security team on Venezuela, while it stated that many options are on the table and that War Secretary Hegseth spoke with members of Congress over the weekend regarding Venezuelan strikes.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said monetary policy falls under the BoJ's jurisdiction, while he expects the BoJ to conduct policy so that it hits its price target, and to work closely with the government.
• RBNZ is to begin weekly open-market operations from December 4th and will update changes to the format in Q1 2026.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK PM spokesperson said PM Starmer has full confidence in Chancellor Reeves.
• BoE's Greene said if the outlook for consumer consumption is much weaker than expected, that might shift her views on rates.
• ECB's de Guindos said the current level of interest rates is appropriate and that future moves are data dependent.
• ECB's Kocher said slight deviations above or below the 2% target should not trigger any need for action on rates now, while Kocher added that they should keep enough powder dry to be able to react quickly if necessary, according to the Kurier newspaper.
• German Chancellor Merz said consultations regarding pension reforms are set to continue and a decision is scheduled for Friday.

DATA RECAP

• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)
• German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4)
• French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 47.8 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 47.8)
• Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 49.9)
• Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.1)
• EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Nov) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.7)