US stocks finished marginally lower and treasuries rallied after soft US data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks finished marginally lower on what was a choppy session on Cyber Monday despite a two-day extension to the Israel-Hamas truce and with late pressure seen heading into the close amid selling in Meta after a judge ruled against it in its privacy lawsuit with the FTC. Treasuries rallied as yields fell following soft New Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing data, as well as a strong 5yr auction.
USD was mildly pressured as yields declined following soft New Home Sales data and ahead of month-end with Barclay's month-end rebalancing model indicating a broad-based, strong dollar selling signal, while attention this week for the dollar is on US GDP 2nd estimate for Q3 on Wednesday, October PCE on Thursday and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Retail Sales, UK BRC Shop Price Index, BoJ Core CPI, Supply from Australia & Japan.

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Highlights include Australian Retail Sales, UK BRC Shop Price Index, BoJ Core CPI, Supply from Australia & Japan.
Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

US stocks finished marginally lower on what was a choppy session on Cyber Monday despite a two-day extension to the Israel-Hamas truce and with late pressure seen heading into the close amid selling in Meta after a judge ruled against it in its privacy lawsuit with the FTC. Treasuries rallied as yields fell following soft New Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing data, as well as a strong 5yr auction.
SPX -0.19% at 4,550, NDX -0.13% at 15,962, DJI -0.16% at 35,333, RUT -0.35% at 1,801.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US President Biden will invoke a measure to bolster investment in domestic manufacturing of medicines and associated supplies deemed important for national defence, according to the White House.
White House said the US is seeing lower prices on items from fuel to food.

DATA RECAP

US Building Permits R Number (Oct) 1.498M (Prev. 1.487M)
US New Home Sales-Units (Oct) 0.679M vs. Exp. 0.723M (Prev. 0.759M, Rev. 0.719M)
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Nov) -19.9 (Prev. -19.2)

USD was mildly pressured as yields declined following soft New Home Sales data and ahead of month-end with Barclay's month-end rebalancing model indicating a broad-based, strong dollar selling signal, while attention this week for the dollar is on US GDP 2nd estimate for Q3 on Wednesday, October PCE on Thursday and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
EUR eked slight gains against the dollar in two-way trade on both sides of 1.0950 and amid comments from ECB President Lagarde who reiterated now is not the time to start declaring victory and that the ECB needs to remain attentive to the different forces affecting inflation, while she expects inflationary pressures to continue weakening, even though headline inflation may rise slightly in the coming months.
GBP was marginally firmer and clawed back early losses following an intraday rebound from support around the 1.2600 level.
JPY outperformed its G10 peers with USD/JPY back beneath the 149.00 handle owing to a narrowing in yield differentials.

Treasuries rallied amid soft housing data, while prices shrugged off a weak 2yr auction and were underpinned by the strong 5yr auction.

Oil prices were ultimately little changed in choppy trade as a softer dollar offset the Israel/Hamas truce extension ahead of Thursday's OPEC+ meeting, while reports noted OPEC+ members are yet to reach an agreement with Saudi seeking quota cuts and others resisting.
OPEC+ JMMC is to begin at 13:00GMT with the OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting at 14:00GMT on Thursday November 30th, according to Reuters citing a draft agenda.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking OPEC+ quota cuts while some members resist and they are yet to clinch an agreement, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg.
Kuwait is committed to OPEC decisions, particularly market quotas and oil production, according to the Oil Ministry.
Iraqi oil officials are set to discuss modifying Kurdistan oil contracts in the early December meeting with KRG energy officials and foreign companies to resume exports to Turkey, according to the Iraqi deputy minister speaking to Reuters.
Output of four key Nigerian crude oil grades are to average 792k BPD in January (prev. 687k BPD in December).

Qatar announced that the Gaza truce was extended for two days.
Israeli Defence Minister said when they return to fighting after the truce, the fighting will be stronger and will include all parts of the Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas Leader Khalil Al-Hayya told Al Jazeera they hope they can extend the truce for a longer period, according to Al Jazeera.
Israel’s army opened fire east of the Maghazi refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, according to Al Arabiya.
Iraq sees a risk of regional conflict if the current truce in Gaza is not turned into a permanent ceasefire, according to Reuters.
US Fifth Fleet said Indianapolis was sent to the Gulf of Aden to support maritime security, according to Al Arabiya.
IRGC said all the developments of the resistance front and support for resistance movements, come from Tehran, according to AJA Breaking.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Report stated it sees China’s 2023 growth target of "around 5%" can be achieved and inflation views are stable with no basis for long-term deflation, while it will further promote financial institutions to lower the effective lending rate. PBoC will increase financial support for the renovation of urban villages and will better support expanding domestic demand, while it will fend off systemic financial risks and noted that prudent monetary policy will be forceful and precise.
China is to hold the CCP Politburo meeting on November 27th, according to state media.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

BoE Governor Bailey said a lot of the recent fall of inflation is due to the unwinding of energy cost surge and getting inflation back down to 2% will be hard work, according to ChronicleLive.
ECB's Lagarde said this is not the time to start declaring victory and they need to remain attentive to the different forces affecting inflation and firmly focused on the mandate of price stability. Lagarde also said PEPP will be discussed in the not-so-distant future and they will re-examine the proposal to continue reinvesting until end-2024, while she added that they cannot be complacent on inflation and that the ECB is keeping a close eye on exchange rates.
ECB insider said a rate cut is the likeliest next move but will not come soon and that they can only consider a hike the likelier next move if they don’t believe their forecasts. Furthermore, a rate cut in H1 is very improbable but not ruled out and is only possible once all data is available, according to EconoStream.
German Finance Minister Lindner said the Cabinet agreed on the draft 2023 supplementary budget, while a government spokesperson said they will try to present the 2024 Budget by the end of the year and if that is not possible, they plan to agree on a Budget in January.