US stocks finished mixed amid contrasting fortunes post-earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks ended the day mixed as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) outperformed, buoyed by Alphabet and broad-based Mag 7 strength (ex. TSLA), although the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.4%) lagged and pared some of its weekly gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) (+1.0%) and Tesla (TSLA) (-8.2%) saw mixed fortunes following their earnings, and as such, resulted in a contrast between the performances of Communications and Consumer Discretionary, while most sectors saw a downside bias with Materials also a laggard which was hit by Dow’s (DOW) (-17.5%) dismal report.
• USD saw broad-based strength and marked the first gain in the DXY so far this week, amid a pause in momentum from recently announced trade deals. Nonetheless, there was a slew of data releases stateside, including mixed PMIs and a continued decline in Initial Jobless Claims, while President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve in Washington saw little reaction with Trump reiterating his call for lower rates and with Trump and Powell voicing some disagreement over renovation figures.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Tokyo CPI, Japanese Services PPI & Leading Index, Singapore Industrial Production, Supply from Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Tokyo CPI, Japanese Services PPI & Leading Index, Singapore Industrial Production, Supply from Japan.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks ended the day mixed as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) outperformed, buoyed by Alphabet and broad-based Mag 7 strength (ex. TSLA), although the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.4%) lagged and pared some of its weekly gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) (+1.0%) and Tesla (TSLA) (-8.2%) saw mixed fortunes following their earnings, and as such, resulted in a contrast between the performances of Communications and Consumer Discretionary, while most sectors saw a downside bias with Materials also a laggard which was hit by Dow’s (DOW) (-17.5%) dismal report.
• SPX +0.07% at 6,363, NDX +0.25% at 23,220, DJI -0.70% at 44,694, RUT -1.36% at 2,252.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the EU and South Korea want to make a deal, while he noted that South Koreans were to visit his office on trade, and commented that complaints about the tariff on Japanese cars are silly.
• EU spokesperson said the bloc continues to engage intensively with the US on tariffs and the focus is on finding a negotiated solution, while the spokesperson believes a solution is within reach. Furthermore, they have no intention to bring additional countermeasures between now and August 1st but remain prepared for all scenarios.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said there are no discrepancies between Japan and the US on rice and defence equipment in the trade deal, while he will do his utmost to ensure the trade deal will be implemented and assuage any concerns from business.
• Chinese Premier Li said China and the EU can create an upgraded export control dialogue mechanism to ensure stability of production and the supply chain, according to Xinhua.
• India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they'll be able to conclude a "very consequential partnership".
• India-UK trade deal statement noted that India is to cut import tariffs on large combustion engine cars to 30% for a max of 10,000 units in the first year and is to cut the import duty on some UK alcoholic drinks to 11% from 150% in the first year.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said she would seek communication with US President Trump if needed, but hopes to reach a tariff agreement.
• Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad said will present a contingency plan for higher US tariffs to President Lula on Monday which includes credit lines.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US House panel is launching a probe of the Fed renovations, according to Punchbowl.

DATA RECAP

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jul) 49.5 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.9)
• US S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Jul) 55.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 52.9)
• US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jul) 54.6 (Prev. 52.9)
• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) -3.0 (Prev. 5.0)
• US KC Fed Composite Index (Jul) 1.0 (Prev. -2.0)
• US New Home Sales Change MM (Jun) 0.6% (Prev. -13.7%, Rev. -11.6%)
• US New Home Sales-Units (Jun) 0.627M vs. Exp. 0.65M (Prev. 0.623M)
• US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 217.0k vs. Exp. 226.0k (Prev. 221.0k)
• US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 1.955M vs. Exp. 1.96M (Prev. 1.956M, Rev. 1.951M)

FX

• USD saw broad-based strength and marked the first gain in the DXY so far this week, amid a pause in momentum from recently announced trade deals. Nonetheless, there was a slew of data releases stateside, including mixed PMIs and a continued decline in Initial Jobless Claims, while President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve in Washington saw little reaction with Trump reiterating his call for lower rates and with Trump and Powell voicing some disagreement over renovation figures.
• EUR marginally softened on the day but with choppy price action seen amid the ECB with some support seen after ECB President Lagarde commented that policy is in a good place, while the outcome of US-EU talks remains unclear as discussions continue ahead of the August 1st deadline and with EU members supporting potential tariffs on EUR 93bln of US goods in the event a tariff deal is not reached.
• GBP underperformed following weak UK PMI data with manufacturing PMI in contraction territory and as Services PMI printed short of estimates.
• JPY gradually gave up some ground against the firmer buck with USD/JPY returning to the 147.00 handle.
• CBRT cut the Weekly Repo Rate by 300bps (exp. 250bps) to 43.00% (exp. 43.50%). CBRT stated the step size will be reviewed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and with focus on the inflation outlook, while it added that a tight monetary stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled lower and the curve flattened after another drop in jobless claims and a jump in US S&P Global Composite PMI.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices advanced into the close but with price action choppy on the day after reports that Chevron is resuming oil pumping in Venezuela.
• Russia is set to introduce a gasoline export ban for fuel producers in the coming days, according to a Reuters source.
• US President Trump’s administration green-lighted Chevron (CVX) to resume pumping oil in Venezuela, according to WSJ citing sources. It was separately reported that the US government considers limited authorisations for Venezuela's PDVSA's foreign oil partners, including Chevron, according to Reuters sources.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel Hayom reported that the IDF is preparing to expand its operations in Gaza due to Hamas' "problematic" response", according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli official told Reuters that Hamas’s response to ceasefire talks does not allow for progress without a concession by Hamas and Israel intends to continue talks.
• Israeli official said the Israeli delegation will return to Qatar only when there is a feasible prospect of finalising an agreement and Hamas's response does not allow for progress unless they show flexibility, while mediators were surprised by Israel's decision and stated that "It would have been better if they had stayed and closed a deal", according to Journalist Stein.
• US special envoy Witkoff decided to bring his team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas, and will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said Tehran will defend its nuclear rights, including uranium enrichment, in talks with E3 on Friday, while it was stated that Iran's positions are still "strong" and enrichment will continue, according to state media.
• Explosions were heard at a weapons depot in Yemen's Al-Anad military base.

OTHER

• US issued new North Korea-related sanctions, according to the Treasury Department website.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said TikTok has to come out of Chinese control and decisions on TikTok are coming very soon, while he added that America needs to control the algorithm.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate (Jul) 2.40% vs Exp. 2.40% (Prev. 2.40%)
• EU ECB Refinancing Rate (Jul) 2.15% vs. Exp. 2.15% (Prev. 2.15%)
• EU ECB Deposit Rate (Jul) 2.00% vs. Exp. 2.00% (Prev. 2.00%)
• ECB kept its rates unchanged, as expected, while it stated that incoming information is broadly in line with the previous assessment but noted the environment remains uncertain and it reiterated a meeting-by-meeting approach. Furthermore, it stated that rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and risks surrounding it, in light of incoming economic and financial data, as well as dynamics of underlying inflation and strength of monetary policy transmission, while it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• ECB President Lagarde (post-meeting statement) said higher tariffs and a stronger Euro are expected to make it harder for firms to invest. Lagarde said during the Q&A that policy is in a good place, projections point to inflation stabilising at target in the medium-term, wages are heading in the right direction and unit profit continues to buffer wage rises. Lagarde said on trade policy, that the ECB is in a wait and watch situation and reiterated the ECB is on a hold with any policy decision will be decided on the basis of data, meeting-by-meeting and not pre-determined by a particular path, as well as stated the jury is out as to how long it will take for uncertainty to clear.
• ECB policymakers set a high bar for a September rate cut whereby a rate cut would require a deterioration in data and lower projections, according to Reuters citing sources.
• ECB official's baseline for September is another hold in rates, and those seeking another rate cut will face a battle, according to Bloomberg sources.

DATA RECAP

• UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.7)
• UK Flash Services PMI (Jul) 51.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 52.8)
• UK Flash Composite PMI (Jul) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.0)
• EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.5)
• EU HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jul) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.5)
• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jul) 51.0 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.6)
• German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jul) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.0)
• German HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jul) 50.1 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.7)
• German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jul) 50.3 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.4)
• French HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jul) 48.4 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.1)
• French HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jul) 49.7 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.6)
• French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jul) 49.6 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.2)