US stocks finished mixed as tariff updates remained in the spotlight - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were choppy and the major indices finished mixed amid a lack of tier-1 data or Fed speak and as tariff updates dominated the slate after President Trump sent out 14 trade letters on Monday and with Commerce Secretary Lutnick anticipating another 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next 2 days. Furthermore, Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that he is to announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and believes the copper tariff will be 50%, which immediately lifted copper prices by over 10% to a record high.
• USD eked mild gains as trade dominated headlines with US President Trump to announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, as well as believes the copper tariff will be 50%, while US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects another 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next 2 days.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Money Supply, Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & Building Approvals, Chinese CPI & PPI, RBNZ Rate Decision, Supply from Australia.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Japanese Money Supply, Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & Building Approvals, Chinese CPI & PPI, RBNZ Rate Decision, Supply from Australia.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were choppy and the major indices finished mixed amid a lack of tier-1 data or Fed speak and as tariff updates dominated the slate after President Trump sent out 14 trade letters on Monday and with Commerce Secretary Lutnick anticipating another 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next 2 days. Furthermore, Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that he is to announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and believes the copper tariff will be 50%, which immediately lifted copper prices by over 10% to a record high.
• SPX -0.07% at 6,226, NDX +0.07% at 22,702, DJI -0.37% at 44,241, RUT +0.66% at 2,229.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said some letters are at 60% and 70% rate, while he said he could have been much harsher on trade and that he could go higher with tariffs.
• US President Trump said they have a really good relationship with China lately and that China has been very fair on the trade deal, while he said he speaks with Chinese President Xi often. Trump also said the EU has been speaking to the US and is treating the US very nicely, while he added they are probably two days off from sending the EU a letter and that a letter means a deal.
• US President Trump said August 1st is not a change, it is a clarification maybe and we are picking a number that is low and fair, while he added that BRICS are getting a 10% charge pretty soon and that BRICS was set up to hurt the US. Furthermore, he said the dollar is king and will keep it that way.
• US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, while he believes the copper tariff will be 50%. Trump added “going to give people about a year, year and a half to come in and after that they are going to be tariffed if they have to bring the pharmaceuticals, drugs into the country, and will be a very high rate, something like 200%".
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects another 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next 2 days, according to a CNBC interview.
• CEA Chair Miran said they could see more trade deals by the end of the week, according to Fox News.
• UK is set to miss the original deadline to close its steel/aluminium trade deal with the US and insiders say they are still some way from a breakthrough. However, they are hopeful US President Trump won't raise UK tariffs from 25% to 50% for the time being, despite having promised to on July 9th, according to Sky's Conway.
• Japan's trade negotiator Akazawa had a phone call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, while the US and Japan agreed to continue vigorous talks on tariffs and Japan continues to seek a mutually beneficial agreement with the US.
• South Korea's Vice Industry Minister said US tariffs will have a major impact on the local economy if they are implemented.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said Fed Chair Powell should resign immediately, while he later posted that Fed Chair Powell should cut interest rates and that now is the time.
• US Treasury said it is to increase T-bill issuance, specifically an initial increase in 4-,6-, and 8-week bills but does not expect to issue CMBs to rebuild cash balance.
• A new report from the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) found that the prices of imported goods have fallen this year and have dipped faster than overall goods prices since February, showing tariffs are not causing inflation, according to Fox Business.

DATA RECAP

• NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (June.): 1yr inflation 3.0% (prev. 3.2% in May), 3yr 3.00% (prev. 3.00%), 5yr 2.6% (prev. 2.6%)

FX

• USD eked mild gains as trade dominated headlines with US President Trump to announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, as well as believes the copper tariff will be 50%, while US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expects another 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next 2 days.
• EUR saw two-way price action but was mildly firmer on the day, with US President Trump providing some optimistic comments on the EU which he stated has been speaking to the US and is treating the US very nicely, while he added they are probably two days off from sending EU a letter and that a letter means a deal.
• GBP was marginally softer after gradually rebounding from an early dip and amid light pertinent catalysts.
• JPY lagged behind its G10 counterparts amid headwinds from the recent 25% tariff announcement which Japan's PM Ishiba said was regrettable.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled lower with attention on supply this week and ongoing trade updates.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices edged mild gains in a reversal of the overnight weakness but with price action relatively contained as Gaza ceasefire talks recommenced.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.1mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing +0.1mln.
• OPEC Secretary General said they do not target a specific price for oil and that OPEC is keen to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the market. Furthermore, he said OPEC is the main guarantor of the continuation of oil supplies globally and their policy is not to rush to change expectations.
• EIA STEO stated 2025 world oil demand is seen at 103.5mln BPD (prev. 103.5mln BPD) and 2026 world oil demand at 104.6mln BPD (prev. 104.6mln BPD).
• Chile's Foreign Ministry said it has not received information from counterparts indicating the implementation of an effective tariff on copper, while the Codelco Chairman said they cannot give an opinion on US President Trump's proposed copper tariffs until official as they need to see whether some countries will be excluded from copper tariffs, and what copper products are affected.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Ceasefire talks with Gaza recommenced in Doha, according to journalist Elster.
• Senior Israeli political official said efforts are ongoing to reach a Gaza hostage deal and that a ceasefire agreement with Hamas could be finalised “within a few days", according to Jerusalem Post.
• US envoy Witkoff is hopeful they will have an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire by the end of the week.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran has always been committed to a peaceful nuclear programme under UN monitoring and Iran remains interested in diplomacy but has good reason to have doubts about further dialogue.
• Iran said the Foreign Minister will visit Saudi Arabia to meet with officials on bilateral relations, and peace and security of the region.
• French intelligence assessed that all parts of Iran's nuclear programme have been seriously hit and damaged, while the French intelligence chief said Iran’s nuclear programme has been pushed back several months. Furthermore, it was stated that a little part of Iran's highly enriched uranium was destroyed, but the rest remains in the hands of the authorities.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said looking at Russian sanctions.
• Russia's Kremlin said US sanctions on Russia are illegal but added that they appreciate US President Trump's efforts to initiate direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

OTHER

• Germany's Foreign Ministry said the Chinese military used a laser to target a German aircraft in an EU operation and the Chinese ambassador was summoned.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said talking to countries about contributing more to the military and that South Korea should be paying for its military.
• German Chancellor Merz is set to make his first visit to China towards the end of this year and Merz is expected to take a delegation of business executives to China in a trip planned for October, according to a Reuters source.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK OBR said public finances are in a relatively vulnerable position and are facing mounting risks, while it added that UK debt is set to exceed 270% of GDP by the early 2070s.
• EU's Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis said tariff uncertainty is weighing on the economy and investment.
• German Finance Minister Klingbeil said they see that economic sentiment has improved.

DATA RECAP

• German Trade Balance (EUR)(May) 18.4B vs. Exp. 15.5B (Prev. 14.6B)
• German Exports MM SA (May) -1.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -1.7%)
• German Imports MM SA (May) -3.8% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 3.9%)