US stocks finished mostly lower with price action choppy after a deluge of mixed data including the jobs report - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks closed the day in the red, in a choppy session, beginning in the US morning in futures after delayed US data. Recapping, the US November payrolls report headline came in at above expected, with the u/e rate jumping to 4.6% from 4.4%, with some of the move explained by the participation rate rising, but the household survey is also subject to a larger standard error than usual, and it may be this way for a few months. On the Oct. headline, it fell 105k (exp. -25k), retail sales were soft but driven by a fall in auto sales, while S&P Global Flash PMIs disappointed. Akin to US indices, Treasuries saw two-way action, as they initially spiked higher amid a jump in the November unemployment rate, but it quickly faded as it was an overall mixed bag of data.
• USD was ultimately flat on the day with price action choppy as participants digested a slew of data releases, including the combined NFP report and Retail Sales. On the one hand, October jobs fell 105k, notably beneath the expected -25k, though the drop is seemingly driven by a decline in the Federal government due to the government shutdown, -162k. Conversely, November showed a modest rebound in the headline +64k (exp. 50k), but the Unemployment Rate moved higher to 4.6% from 4.4%, although participants may interpret the reading as less informative given the BLS issued a notice beforehand that it would contain a larger standard error.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Westpac Leading Index, Japanese Core Machinery Orders & Trade Data, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Supply from Australia.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Australian Westpac Leading Index, Japanese Core Machinery Orders & Trade Data, Singapore Non-Oil Exports, Supply from Australia.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks closed the day in the red, in a choppy session, beginning in the US morning in futures after delayed US data. Recapping, the US November payrolls report headline came in at above expected, with the u/e rate jumping to 4.6% from 4.4%, with some of the move explained by the participation rate rising, but the household survey is also subject to a larger standard error than usual, and it may be this way for a few months. On the Oct. headline, it fell 105k (exp. -25k), retail sales were soft but driven by a fall in auto sales, while S&P Global Flash PMIs disappointed. Akin to US indices, Treasuries saw two-way action, as they initially spiked higher amid a jump in the November unemployment rate, but it quickly faded as it was an overall mixed bag of data.
• SPX -0.24% at 6,800, NDX +0.26% at 25,133, DJI -0.62% at 48,114, RUT -0.45% at 2,519.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US House China Panel wrote a letter to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, stating that NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chip sales to China risks US advantage.
• US administration reportedly hit out at the WTO before a "crunch meeting", in which the US criticised the most-favoured nation principle, according to FT.
• US threatens to retaliate against EU Cos. over digital tax, while it will use 'every tool' to counter EU digital tax, and the US may consider fees and foreign services restrictions.
• China's Commerce Ministry said China will charge tariffs of 19.8% on EU pork effective December 17th and that the tariff range will be from 4.9-19.8%.
• French President Macron called for an urgent rebalancing of EU-China relations in an FT op-ed, and said in order to finance the investment we need, Europe must leverage its pool of around EUR 30tln in savings. Macro also commented that the EU must stay open for China to invest in sectors where it is a leader and that China must address its internal imbalances.
• German government official said the Mercosur trade pact is "probably dead" if an agreement isn't made at the EU summit.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump is to give an address to the nation on Wednesday night, live from the White House at 21:00EST (02:00GMT). White House Press Secretary said that Trump’s address will be about accomplishments, while he will talk about what's to come and maybe tease new year policies.
• US President Trump is set to interview Fed Governor Waller for the Chair role on Wednesday, while officials have cautioned that the process is fast-moving and that meetings can always be postponed or cancelled as the president continues to deliberate, according to WSJ.
• Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said price pressures are not just coming from tariffs and the Fed should not be hasty to declare victory. Bostic said he would have preferred to leave monetary policy where it was at the last Fed meeting and noted that further interest rate cuts would place monetary policy near or into accommodative territory, putting inflation and inflation expectations at risk. Furthermore, he said Tuesday's jobs report was a mixed picture and did not change the outlook much.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent guesses they will see the Fed Chair announcement and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs in early January, while he stated that both Warsh and Hassett are very qualified and that the Fed Chair needs to have an open mind. Furthermore, Bessent said there is an inflation problem but suspects they will see a substantial drop in inflation for the first six months of 2026, as well as expects rent to come down substantially, according to Fox Business.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said on jobs data that he sees a solid upward trajectory, and that private sector jobs growth was in line with the upward trajectory, while he also commented that President Trump is right regarding plenty of room to lower rates.
• White House CEA Acting Chair Yared said the rising jobless rate is statistically insignificant and that wages are going up, which allows people to re-enter the labour force.
• US House Speaker Johnson said there will be a vote on the GOP healthcare bill on Wednesday.

DATA RECAP

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov) 64.0k vs. Exp. 50.0k (Prev. 108.0k for September); 2-month net revision -33k
• US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%)
• US Average Earnings YY (Nov) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.8%)
• US Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct) -105k (exp. -25k)
• US Retail Sales MM (Oct) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%)
• US Retail Control (Oct) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Dec) 51.8 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 52.2)
• US S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Dec) 52.9 vs. Exp. 54.0 (Prev. 54.1)
• US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Dec) 53.0 (Prev. 54.2)
• US Business Inventories MM (Sep) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1%

FX

• USD was ultimately flat on the day with price action choppy as participants digested a slew of data releases, including the combined NFP report and Retail Sales. On the one hand, October jobs fell 105k, notably beneath the expected -25k, though the drop is seemingly driven by a decline in the Federal government due to the government shutdown, -162k. Conversely, November showed a modest rebound in the headline +64k (exp. 50k), but the Unemployment Rate moved higher to 4.6% from 4.4%, although participants may interpret the reading as less informative given the BLS issued a notice beforehand that it would contain a larger standard error.
• EUR saw two-way price action and returned to flat territory after upward intraday momentum was thwarted by resistance around the 1.1800 level.
• GBP outperformed and reclaimed the 1.3400 status in the aftermath of the better-than-feared jobs data and firmer-than-expected average earnings.
• JPY gradually strengthened with USD/JPY retreating back beneath the 155.00 handle amid BoJ rate hike expectations and narrowing US-Japan yield differentials.
• BoC Governor Macklem reiterated the Governing Council sees the policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Macklem also reiterated that uncertainty is still very high and if the outlook changes, they are prepared to respond.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled higher but with price action choppy amid the US data deluge, including the jobs report, which was ultimately a mixed bag.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices saw losses and seemingly continued to be weighed on by more promising Ukraine/Russia developments around a peace deal.

GEOPOLITICAL

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US is to discuss with Russia security guarantees, the 20-point plan and a reconstruction plan for Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin said they do not want a ceasefire which will provide a pause for Ukraine to better prepare for continuation of war, while it noted regarding the Ukrainian proposal for Christmas truce, that it depends on whether they reach a deal or not.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said a certain Ukraine war resolution is near, while Ryabkov also stated they are ready to make efforts to overcome disagreements relating to the Ukraine crisis, but are not willing to make any concessions regarding Crimea, Donbas and Novorossiya.
• Joint statement of 8 EU states said Russia is the most significant, direct and long-term threat to security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.
• Polish PM Tusk said they are considering spending roughly billions on drone defences on the NATO eastern flank.

OTHER

• US is preparing to seize more sanctioned oil-filled tankers off Venezuela, according to Axios citing officials who noted that the President has many tools in the toolbox, and "this is a big one". Furthermore, it was stated that so far, Trump doesn't want to move into Venezuelan waters to seize ships, but added that if they make them wait too long, they might get a warrant to get them there in Venezuelan waters.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump’s push to loosen China’s influence in the Panama Canal has hit a wall now that Beijing is demanding that China’s largest shipping company get a controlling stake in a deal to sell dozens of ports to a BlackRock (BLK)-led group, according to WSJ.
• RBNZ announced modernised capital rules that will support an efficient and resilient financial system, while the package announced includes reduced requirements for common equity, more granular risk weights, and simplification of capital instruments.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• EU Lawmaker Weber said the EU will have a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions for auto fleet targets from 2035.

DATA RECAP

• UK Employment Change (Oct) -16k vs. Exp. -67k (Prev. -22k)
• UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Oct) 5.1% vs. Exp. 5.1% (Prev. 5.0%)
• UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Oct) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.6%, Rev. 4.7%)
• UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Oct) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.8%, Rev. 4.9%)
• UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.2)
• UK Flash Services PMI (Dec) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.3)
• UK Flash Composite PMI (Dec) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.2)
• German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Dec) 47.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.2)
• German HCOB Services Flash PMI (Dec) 52.6 vs. Exp. 53 (Prev. 53.1)
• German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Dec) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.4)
• EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Dec) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.6)
• EU HCOB Services Flash PMI (Dec) 52.6 vs. Exp. 53.3 (Prev. 53.6)
• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Dec) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.8)
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec) 45.8 vs. Exp. 38.7 (Prev. 38.5)
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Dec) -81.0 vs. Exp. -80.0 (Prev. -78.7)
• EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Dec) 33.7 (Prev. 25.0)