print-icon
print-icon

US stocks gained and the dollar was sold heading into month/quarter end - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

Newsquawk Logo
Monday, Jun 30, 2025 - 09:12 PM
  • US stocks gained and the major US indices ended the month and quarter on the front foot as Apple (+2%) provided tailwinds amid reports that the tech behemoth reportedly weighs powering Siri with Anthropic or OpenAI tech. Nonetheless, the focus on Monday was on events at Capitol Hill with the Senate clearing a key hurdle in Trump's tax bill, with the vote-a-rama process now ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill before then sending it to Trump's desk. In addition, Trump continued to pile on the pressure on "Too Late" Powell, who participates in a conference with BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, and BoJ's Ueda on Tuesday. The Dollar was lower and sold off through the duration of the US session to the benefit of G10 peers (ex. GBP), while T-Notes bull flattened amid month/quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
  • USD began the week on the back foot and gradually sold off through the duration of the US session heading into month and quarter end with the greenback not helped by a dismal Chicago PMI, while focus resided around Washington and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which is set for a vote this week, as well as any trade updates, and remarks from President Trump.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence, BoJ Tankan Survey, South Korean Trade Data, Regional PMIs, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Supply from Japan, Hong Kong markets holiday closure.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

  • Highlights include New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence, BoJ Tankan Survey, South Korean Trade Data, Regional PMIs, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Supply from Japan, Hong Kong markets holiday closure.
  • Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

  • US stocks gained and the major US indices ended the month and quarter on the front foot as Apple (+2%) provided tailwinds amid reports that the tech behemoth reportedly weighs powering Siri with Anthropic or OpenAI tech. Nonetheless, the focus on Monday was on events at Capitol Hill with the Senate clearing a key hurdle in Trump's tax bill, with the vote-a-rama process now ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill before then sending it to Trump's desk. In addition, Trump continued to pile on the pressure on "Too Late" Powell, who participates in a conference with BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, and BoJ's Ueda on Tuesday. The Dollar was lower and sold off through the duration of the US session to the benefit of G10 peers (ex. GBP), while T-Notes bull flattened amid month/quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI and Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.
  • SPX +0.52% at 6,205, NDX +0.64% at 22,679, DJI +0.63% at 44,095, RUT +0.12% at 2,175.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

  • US President Trump said they will be sending Japan a letter after not accepting US rice despite a rice shortage and "we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come."
  • White House Press Secretary said President Trump is meeting with the trade team this week to set country rates, while she said we will hear about a trade deal with India very soon.
  • White House NEC Director Hassett said he expects trade frameworks will come after July 4th, according to FBN.
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick thanked Canada for removing the Digital Services Tax, while White House Advisor Hassett said the US will restart negotiations with Canada immediately.
  • EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he will travel to Washington on Tuesday for trade discussions, following high-level discussions in Turkey.
  • EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions, according to Bloomberg.
  • EU spokesperson said the European Digital Services Act is not on the table at trade talks with the US and noted that it will also not be negotiating on the Digital Markets Act. It was separately reported that the UK is currently planning to keep its digital services tax, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Japanese PM Ishiba reportedly weighs up US President Trump's suggestion that Japan buys US oil and said "it is a possibility that requires further, more detailed consideration", according to Nikkei.
  • Japan's tariff negotiator Akazawa said they will continue working with the US to reach a tariff agreement while defending national interests.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) does not see any prospect of 1970s style stagflation, while he said there is definitely the possibility of both inflation and employment getting worse at the same time.
  • Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said this could be a more extended [hold] period than people think, while he added businesses tell the Fed they don't have plans to lay people off and there is some optimism amongst business leaders, according to CNBC.
  • US President Trump said "Jerome “Too Late” Powell, and his entire Board, should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen to the US... We should be paying 1% Interest, or better!"
  • White House Press Secretary Leavitt said high interest rates remain a problem and that President Trump sent a handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell asking Powell to lower rates.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he is confident that the fiscal policy bill will progress in the coming hours and that this is a start in controlling US debt, while he responded "why would we borrow longer term at these rates" when asked about terming out the debt, via Bloomberg TV.
  • US House Rules Committee will meet tomorrow at noon to consider the reconciliation package, according to Punchbowl.

DATA RECAP

  • US Chicago PMI (Jun) 40.4 vs. Exp. 43.0 (Prev. 40.5)

FX

  • USD began the week on the back foot and gradually sold off through the duration of the US session heading into month and quarter end with the greenback not helped by a dismal Chicago PMI, while focus resided around Washington and the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which is set for a vote this week, as well as any trade updates, and remarks from President Trump.
  • EUR benefitted from the dollar weakness and gained a firmer footing at the 1.1700 handle despite softer-than-expected German Inflation and Retail Sales, while there were a slew of ECB comments but had little impact as the attention turns to Tuesday's panel participation of top central bankers at the ECB's Sintra Forum.
  • GBP traded relatively flat with a lack of surprises from the latest UK GDP numbers which matched their initial estimates.
  • JPY strengthened amid narrowing US-Japan yield differentials and with Japanese PM Ishiba reportedly weighing up US President Trump's suggestion that Japan buys US oil, while tariff negotiator Akazawa said they will continue working with the US to reach a tariff agreement.

FIXED INCOME

  • T-notes bull flattened amid month/quarter-end, soft Chicago PMI and with Treasury Secretary Bessent dialling back expectations he will term out the debt.

COMMODITIES

  • Oil prices saw slight losses to start the week in light newsflow with the oil benchmarks rangebound amid month/quarter end and with a holiday-shortened week due to Independence Day on Friday.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu's visit to Washington and meeting with US President Trump may take place as early as next week, according to sources via Jerusalem Post.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Sarr said Israel is interested in establishing official diplomatic ties with Syria and Lebanon, while it will not negotiate Golan Heights in any peace agreement.
  • Israel is willing to soften some of its positions in an attempt to reach a text agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that would also be acceptable to Hamas, but will not agree to a commitment in advance that the temporary ceasefire will bring an end to the war, according to Axios citing an Israeli senior official.
  • US President Trump said he is not offering Iran anything and is not talking to Iran since destroying their nuclear sites.
  • Member of Iran's National Security Committee said "The elimination of Revolutionary Guards commanders will lead to a decisive response; we too can threaten Netanyahu's life", according to Kann News.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US Envoy to Ukraine Kellogg said Russia cannot continue to stall for time while it bombs civilian targets in Ukraine.
  • German government spokesperson said expect the EU's 18th Russia sanctions package to be agreed this week.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • China said it will take necessary measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises after Canada shutdown Hikvision's local operations.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • ECB President Lagarde said the world ahead is more uncertain and that is likely to make inflation more volatile, while she added that regular supply disruptions are leading firms to adjust prices more frequently, contributing to greater inflation volatility. Furthermore, Lagarde said large shocks can trigger feedback loops and non-linear effects.
  • ECB Chief Economist Lane said they may face larger deviations from the 2% inflation target in both directions.
  • ECB's de Guindos said they are confronting "brutal uncertainty" and that Q2 and Q3 growth will be almost flat, while he added consumption as a driver has not happened and must keep all rate options open because of uncertainty.
  • ECB's Simkus does not know if they'll have all the information they need by September and any move on rates is more likely towards year-end, while he said the ECB would decide meeting by meeting and avoid pre-commitment due to an unpredictable environment.
  • ECB updated its monetary policy strategy and noted that symmetry requires an appropriately forceful or persistent policy response to large, sustained deviations of inflation from the target in either direction.

DATA RECAP

  • UK GDP QQ (Q1) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • UK GDP YY (Q1) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%)
  • German Retail Sales MM Real (May) -1.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -1.1%)
  • German Retail Sales YY Real (May) 1.6% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • German CPI Prelim MM (Jun) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
  • German CPI Prelim YY (Jun) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.1%)
  • German Import Prices MM (May) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. -1.7%)
  • German Import Prices YY (May) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -0.4%)
Loading...