US stocks gained, while the dollar and yields retreated on soft data and Russia-Ukraine optimism - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were firmer on Tuesday, and while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed, it managed to pare all weakness initially seen, driven by NVIDIA, amid The Information reports that Meta is considering using Google’s TPUs in its data centres in 2027. NVIDIA (-2.6%) still ended the day with losses, but the wider index managed to recover. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary sitting atop of the pile, with Utilities and Energy the only ones in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in the crude complex amid positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments, with Trump most recently posting on Truth that there are only a few remaining points of disagreement, and as such is sending Witkoff to meet with Putin in Moscow, and Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians. There was a deluge of US data but little really moved markets as PPI and Retail Sales were dated (Sept), although Consumer Confidence (Nov) was dismal. On the Fed footing, Miran was his usual dovish self, but the US yield curve steepened amid BBG reports that Hassett is seen as the frontrunner in Trump's Fed Chair search.
• USD was broadly sold against peers following a deluge of data including softer-than-expected Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Core PPI figures, in combination with optimistic headlines on Ukraine-Russia, while it was also reported by Bloomberg that NEC Director Hassett, a close ally of Trump, is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair role, although Fox Business sources refuted the claim.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Services PPI, Leading Index & BoJ Core CPI, Australian Quarterly/Monthly CPI & Construction Work Done, Singapore Industrial Production, RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Supply from Australia & Japan.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Japanese Services PPI, Leading Index & BoJ Core CPI, Australian Quarterly/Monthly CPI & Construction Work Done, Singapore Industrial Production, RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference, Supply from Australia & Japan.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were firmer on Tuesday, and while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed, it managed to pare all weakness initially seen, driven by NVIDIA, amid The Information reports that Meta is considering using Google’s TPUs in its data centres in 2027. NVIDIA (-2.6%) still ended the day with losses, but the wider index managed to recover. Sectors overall were predominantly in the green, with Health and Consumer Discretionary sitting atop of the pile, with Utilities and Energy the only ones in the red. The latter was hit by weakness in the crude complex amid positive Ukraine/Russia peace deal developments, with Trump most recently posting on Truth that there are only a few remaining points of disagreement, and as such is sending Witkoff to meet with Putin in Moscow, and Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians. There was a deluge of US data but little really moved markets as PPI and Retail Sales were dated (Sept), although Consumer Confidence (Nov) was dismal. On the Fed footing, Miran was his usual dovish self, but the US yield curve steepened amid BBG reports that Hassett is seen as the frontrunner in Trump's Fed Chair search.
• SPX +0.91% at 6,766, NDX +0.58% at 25,018, DJI +1.43% at 47,112, RUT +2.14% at 2,466.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is right on schedule for soybean purchases and the US position on Taiwan is unchanged, while he added that the US and China are always going to be natural rivals, but the relationship is in a good place. Furthermore, he said President Trump may attend the APEC summit, and there could be four meetings between Trump and Xi in 2026.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Discount Rates Minutes stated that Board members discussed economic and financial developments and issues related to possible policy actions, while no sentiment was expressed by the Board at the meeting for changing the primary credit rate at this time, and the Board approved the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 4.25%.
• Fed's Miran (voter) said the economy calls for large interest rate cuts and he hopes jobs data will convince others on the Fed to cut rates. Miran also said it is hard to quantify the impact of AI on the economy, while he added the unemployment rate is rising because monetary policy is too tight and that the Fed should get to the neutral rate quickly, according to Fox Business.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will have the last interview in the second round on Tuesday regarding the Fed Chair role, while he added they have five strong candidates and reiterated that President Trump will announce the Fed Chair before Christmas.
• Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Hassett is seen as someone who would bring the president’s approach to interest rate cutting to the Fed, which Trump has long wanted to control, some of the people said. Furthermore, Trump is known to make surprise personnel and policy decisions, meaning a nomination is not final until it’s made public, sources said.
• Fox's Lawrence said regarding the search for the next Fed Chair that "There is no frontrunner: Senior US official confirmed a final list of candidates has not yet been sent to the White House. A final list will be sent to Trump after interviews have concluded". Lawrence added that "The Treasury Secretary says he has not yet finished the interviews for the possible next Federal Reserve Chairman".
• US October Budget (USD): -248bln (exp. -235.05bln, prev. -257bln in Oct 2024), budget outlays 689bln (prev. 584bln); receipts 404bln (prev. 327bln); net customs receipts 31.4bln (prev. 7.3bln)

DATA RECAP

• US Retail Sales MM (Sep) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.6%)
• US Consumer Confidence (Nov) 88.7 vs. Exp. 93.4 (Prev. 94.6)
• US PPI Final Demand MM (Sep) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%)
• US PPI Final Demand YY (Sep) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%)
• US PPI exFood/Energy MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
• US PPI exFood/Energy YY (Sep) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 8 Nov) -13.5k (Prev. -2.5k)
• US Pending Sales Change MM (Oct) 1.9% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Rev. 0.1%)
• US Pending Homes Index (Oct) 76.3 (Prev. 74.8, Rev. 74.9)
• US Richmond Fed Comp. Index (Nov) -15.0 (Prev. -4.0)
• US Richmond Fed Mfg Shipments (Nov) -14.0 (Prev. 4.0)
• US Richmond Fed Services Index (Nov) -4.0 (Prev. 4.0)
• US Monthly Home Price Index (Sep) 435.4 (Prev. 435.3, Rev. 435.6)
• US Monthly Home Price YY (Sep) 1.7% (Prev. 2.3%, Rev. 2.4%)
• US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%)
• US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Sep) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 1.6%)

FX

• USD was broadly sold against peers following a deluge of data including softer-than-expected Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Core PPI figures, in combination with optimistic headlines on Ukraine-Russia, while it was also reported by Bloomberg that NEC Director Hassett, a close ally of Trump, is the frontrunner for the Fed Chair Role, although Fox Business sources refuted the claim.
• EUR benefitted from the weaker dollar and gained a firmer footing above the 1.1500 level, while there were comments from ECB's Makhlouf, who noted concern about service and food inflation.
• GBP strengthened ahead of the Budget with further leaks announced, including rises to the minimum wage and no cuts on VAT applied to energy bills.
• JPY was firmer with USD/JPY briefly reverting to the 156.00 handle as US yields softened on soft data and Fed-related headlines.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes settled higher with the curve steepening on reports that White House Economic Adviser Hassett is the Fed Chair frontrunner.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were lower amid positive Russia/Ukraine peace deal updates.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli opposition leader said he will bring to a vote in the Knesset next week regarding US President Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza in order for the Israeli parliament "to accept and endorse it", according to Axios.
• Turkish spy chief, Egyptian intelligence chief, and the Qatari Foreign Minister met in Cairo on Tuesday to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal and increasing cooperation with the US, according to Reuters citing a source.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine.
• US President Trump said his team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he directed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Putin in Moscow in the hope of finalising the peace plan.
• US Special Envoy Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch the Ukraine plan to US President Trump, according to Bloomberg.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will continue peace plan talks with the US. It was separately reported that Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to move forward with the peace deal framework with US President Trump and Europe, according to the text of his speech cited by Reuters. Zelensky said Europe should continue to support Ukraine as long as Russia shows no willingness to end the war, and he called on European leaders to work out a doable framework to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky wants to meet US President Trump "as soon as possible" — possibly over Thanksgiving — to finalise a joint US-Ukrainian agreement on the terms for ending the war, according to Axios citing Zelensky's Chief of Staff.
• Ukraine's National Security Chief said President Zelensky is expected to visit the US at the 'earliest possible date' in November.
• Ukraine reportedly agrees to the terms of the peace deal, although there are still some details to be sorted out, according to ABC News.
• US and Ukraine are finalising a peace deal, but Russia is likely to reject changes, according to WaPo citing analysts.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia is waiting for an interim version of the US peace plan, following talks between the US, Ukraine and Europeans.
• Russia is expected to reject the new 19-point cease-fire deal drafted by the US and Ukraine, suggesting the war will last at least through Christmas, sources told NY Post.
• UK PM Starmer said Ukraine will receive more air defence missiles from the UK in the coming weeks.
• UK PM Starmer spokesperson said the commitment remains when asked if the UK is still willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine after cessation of hostilities.

OTHER

• China asked airlines to extend flight cuts to Japan till March 2026, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government is to spend JPY 1tln on SME wage hike support, while they are asking for cooperation on base pay gains above inflation.
• Tokyo Metropolitan Government is reportedly eyeing the introduction of a 3% accommodation tax on hotel stays, according to Nikkei.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK government approved a 4.1% increase in the main minimum wage rate to GBP 12.71 an hour from April 2026.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly against cutting VAT on energy bills in the budget, while she is still pressing ahead with a package of support for household energy costs, including changes to green levies on electricity, according to FT.
• ECB's Makhlouf said inflation is in a good place, but they are a bit worried about service and food inflation.