US stocks marginally declined, while oil prices and and yields gained amid geopolitical uncertainty - Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks saw modest pressure on Monday amid relatively quiet newsflow, with the Russell 2000 leading the downside while the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) finished little changed, pointing to relatively flat underlying breadth. On a sector basis, Energy heavily outperformed as crude prices climbed, while Real Estate, Utilities and Technology lagged. The gains in oil largely reflected continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East as the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with repeated suggestions that progress is being made but little concrete evidence of a breakthrough. US President Trump said the US is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands for reopening Hormuz, including full compensation, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, an end to the blockade and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump, however, said the US also wants compensation from Iran for damages, potentially complicating negotiations further.
USD mostly eked out slight gains vs. G10 peers, with the GBP outperforming and the Yen the distinct laggard. Headline newsflow was very sparse on Monday, with Fed's Hammack saying that the current rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy; would probably need some number of rate hikes, but she has no intention to prejudge the number of rate increases or the final level. In reaction, little move was seen in markets. In terms of the week ahead, the highlight is US CPI on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include Singapore GDP, Australian NAB Business Confidence, RBA Rate Decision, Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA Governor Bullock Press Conference, Holiday Closure in Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

Highlights include Singapore GDP, Australian NAB Business Confidence, RBA Rate Decision, Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA Governor Bullock Press Conference, Holiday Closure in Japan.
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

US President Trump, responding to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, said he was demanding compensation from Iran for "all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts." He added Iran had never mentioned compensation during their meetings or negotiations and said he had instructed officials to firmly put the issue into any and all future negotiations. Trump also stated that with respect to the Iran negotiations, Iran should also be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza.
US President Trump said regarding potential escalation with Iran that it is certainly possible and still has the ability to escalate. Trump also stated the Strait is open now, and the US is the only one that has control, with the entire mine-swept and control 100%.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran had demanded compensation for damage caused by US and Israel’s war, while he said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if no third party interfered and that Iran would not hold talks with the US as long as Washington continued to violate the interim deal, according to Al Jazeera.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said talks with Oman were constructive and positive, while he stated that they did not address the issue of fees in the discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but added it is natural to collect fees for services received. Furthermore, he said Iran was currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US, according to Al Mayadeen.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei appointed six new military commanders with Major General Ali Abdullahi as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Brigadier General Kiyomars Heydari as Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, while Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi was promoted to Major General and became Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Major General Mustafa Izadi became Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, Admiral Ali Ozamai was assigned command of the IRGC Navy, and Hojjatoleslam Walmuslimin Hossein Taeb was assigned leadership of the Basij of the Oppressed.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's visit to Iraq has been delayed to next week, according to Al Hadath.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister held talks with his Iranian counterpart to discuss regional developments and efforts to promote peace and stability, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli Broadcasting Authority cited sources that stated the next round of negotiations with Lebanon has been delayed due to tensions between the two sides.

US TRADE

US stocks saw modest pressure on Monday amid relatively quiet newsflow, with the Russell 2000 leading the downside while the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) finished little changed, pointing to relatively flat underlying breadth. On a sector basis, Energy heavily outperformed as crude prices climbed, while Real Estate, Utilities and Technology lagged. The gains in oil largely reflected continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East as the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with repeated suggestions that progress is being made but little concrete evidence of a breakthrough. US President Trump said the US is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands for reopening Hormuz, including full compensation, sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, an end to the blockade and the withdrawal of US forces from the region. Trump, however, said the US also wants compensation from Iran for damages, potentially complicating negotiations further.
SPX -0.05% at 7,753, NDX -0.34% at 26,622, DJI -0.11% at 53,976, RUT -0.50% at 3,019.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Fed's Hammack (Voter, Hawkish dissenter) said the current rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy and would probably need some number of rate hikes, while she has no intention to prejudge the number of rate increases or the final level. Hammack said in general, one 25bps move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy, and that now is the time to act, while she cautioned that the longer the Fed waits, the longer it misses its inflation goal of 2% and the harder inflation will be to bring back down. Furthermore, she said markets are a complement for the Fed, not a substitute, and they have to stand behind their words and actions when appropriate, adding that she is going to factor in how markets are performing, how they're interpreting what we're saying, but ultimately that's not a substitute for them taking action when it's necessary.
US President Trump said he spoke to Fed Chair Warsh a couple of days ago and has spoken to him once since he took over.
US President Trump said vaccinations for Hepatitis B, Covid-19, and Influenza, among others, are no longer recommended for all children, while he added that child vaccines will still be covered by insurance.

FX

USD mostly eked out slight gains vs. G10 peers, with the GBP outperforming and the Yen the distinct laggard. Headline newsflow was very sparse on Monday, with Fed's Hammack saying that the current rate is not meaningfully restricting the economy; would probably need some number of rate hikes, but she has no intention to prejudge the number of rate increases or the final level. In reaction, little move was seen in markets. In terms of the week ahead, the highlight is US CPI on Wednesday.
EUR marginally softened, albeit with price action kept to within relatively tight parameters within the 1.1500 handle.
GBP was the only G10 currency to see gains vs. the greenback after reclaiming the 1.3500 status but with the upside limited as newsflow from the UK remained very quiet.
JPY saw notable intra-day strength as Kyodo, citing source reports, said that a September rate hike signal from the BoJ resulted in the US joining in on intervention. The report added that the BoJ now has "no choice but to raise interest rates" in September. This followed a hawkish Summary of Opinions overnight. However, the strength swiftly pared, and reversed, to see USD/JPY hit a peak of 159.17 against an earlier low of 157.66. Meanwhile, the Japanese Growth Minister spoke, noting the fiscal situation is improving, and they do not expect the JPY depreciation to continue.

FIXED INCOME

T-notes settled lower and yields rose across the curve as oil prices climb on geopolitical uncertainty.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices gained as US-Iran tensions remain uncertain, while aiding the upside in the US afternoon was a Trump Truth stating, "in response to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, he is demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts".
Stocks of crude oil in the US SPR fell by about 6.1mln bbls to 298.7mln bbls last week, the lowest since 1983.
US President Trump extended and narrowed the US Jones Act shipping waiver.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

US has brokered an agreement between the IAEA and the new Syrian government to remove nuclear material from a clandestine facility known as "Site 99," according to Axios citing US and Israeli officials.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Ukrainian President Zelensky said he held substantive talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on strengthening cooperation to protect lives and civilians.
Ukraine’s military said it struck a Russian petrochemical plant in the Tyumen region.
Russia will treat any military provocations along the Dniester River as an attack on Russia, TASS reported, citing a Russian diplomat.

ASIA-PAC