US stocks mildly retreated amid a deluge of earnings and as risk events approach - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were lower on Tuesday amid a deluge of earnings, which saw Industrials reside as the sectoral laggard and hit by Boeing (BA) (-4%) and UPS (UPS) (-10.5%) post-results, with the latter weighed on as it didn't provide revenue or operating profit guidance amid the current macro uncertainty. In terms of the sectors, Real Estate, Utilities, and Energy sat atop the pile with the latter buoyed by gains in excess of 3.5% in oil prices amid comments from US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent on the timeframe for Russia to agree to a ceasefire and warning of Russian oil sanctions. Attention was also on US-China trade talks with the overwhelming readout being positive, although Bessent said he will be meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday and that the final decision on the trade truce will be up to the President.
• USD extended on gains and was supported by the continued EUR sell-off in the aftermath of the announced EU-US trade deal which Germany and France have sounded negative on, while the US Commerce Secretary expects talks to continue, but noted with "Plenty of horse trading left to do in EU talks". Elsewhere, there was plenty of focus on the second day of US-China trade talks in Stockholm, where officials are pushing for a 90-day extension on the tariff truce but with the final decision up to President Trump who will meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday, while participants also look ahead to the FOMC.
• Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Survey, Philippines CPI, Australian Quarterly & Monthly CPI, MAS Policy Review.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Survey, Philippines CPI, Australian Quarterly & Monthly CPI, MAS Policy Review.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were lower on Tuesday amid a deluge of earnings, which saw Industrials reside as the sectoral laggard and hit by Boeing (BA) (-4%) and UPS (UPS) (-10.5%) post-results, with the latter weighed on as it didn't provide revenue or operating profit guidance amid the current macro uncertainty. In terms of the sectors, Real Estate, Utilities, and Energy sat atop the pile with the latter buoyed by gains in excess of 3.5% in oil prices amid comments from US President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent on the timeframe for Russia to agree to a ceasefire and warning of Russian oil sanctions. Attention was also on US-China trade talks with the overwhelming readout being positive, although Bessent said he will be meeting with Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday and that the final decision on the trade truce will be up to the President.
• SPX -0.30% at 6,371, NDX -0.21% at 23,308, DJI -0.46% at 44,633, RUT -0.61% at 2,243.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said Chinese President Xi wants to meet and he thinks it will happen before the end of the year. Trump also said he spoke with Treasury Secretary Bessent and that it was a very good meeting with the China trade team, while he stated regarding China, that they will either approve it or not. Furthermore, Trump said the India trade deal is not finalised and that India may pay tariffs of 20%-25%.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will see US President Trump regarding the China tariff pause on Wednesday and some technical details remain on the China tariff pause, while the China tariff extension decision will be up to Trump and if he does not approve tariff pause extension, tariffs on Chinese goods would 'boomerang' back to April 2nd levels, or another level that he chooses. Bessent also stated that he hopes China's 5yr plan would include rebalancing and 90 days is one option for trade truce extension, as well as suggested they could probably have another China meeting in another 90 days but there was no discussion in Stockholm regarding a possible Trump-Xi meeting.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Chinese officials that given US secondary tariff legislation on sanctioned Russian oil, China could face high tariffs if it continues to purchase it. It was separately reported that Bessent said they are discussing big economic frameworks regarding China trade and that China jumped the gun a little on the 90-day pause, while he added that China trade and the August 12th deadline are pending Trump's approval and he doesn’t know where they will be in 90 days but noted good news is they're talking.
• USTR Greer confirmed verification of the London framework and is to make sure magnets are flowing. Greer said they are discussing details on the tariff pause with China and a 90-day extension is one option for Trump to approve, while he added the US did not agree to any changes on export controls.
• Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li said the US and China have agreed to extend the trade truce and both sides will continue to push forward the extension of the pause of reciprocal tariffs as well as Chinese countermeasures, while they will continue to maintain communication and will have timely communication on trade and economic issues.
• China's top trade Negotiator Li said China and US teams continued to make use of the trade consultation mechanism and the two sides had candid, in-depth and constructive discussions, as well as reviewed implementation of the Geneva consensus. Furthermore, it was reported that China's top trade negotiator said at the close of talks that the two sides "will continue to push for the continued extension of the pause" in tariffs.
  - China and the US are to continue pushing for a continued extension of the pause on 24% reciprocal tariffs of the US side and countermeasures of the Chinese side, according to CNBC's Yoon citing a Chinese international trade representative.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said a plan on Pharma is coming in two weeks and "it is going to be higher", while he added there will be a "massive" tariff if pharma is not made in the US. It was separately reported that Lutnick urged South Korea to bring its best trade offer to talks, according to WSJ
• US ambassador to Canada said "hopefully very soon" a trade deal between Canada and the US will be reached.
• Japan's Economy Minister Akazawa, said his understanding is that if a third country reaches an agreement with the US on lower sectoral tariffs, such as chips and pharma, the same rate would apply to Japan.
• India is reportedly bracing for higher US tariffs and is said to be looking for a broader trade agreement, according to Reuters citing sources. Furthermore, India is said to expect a full US deal around September or October (in line with previous reports) and is preparing for US tariffs in the 20-25% range.
• Germany’s Economy Minister said the EU is currently negotiating from a position of weakness and must change this, while new tariffs bring an enormous burden and they will measure the US against commitments from Sunday. Furthermore, the minister added cannot say how much of the USD 600bln investment in the US will fall on Germany.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said she is aiming for a tariff agreement with the US this week.
• Brazil asked the US to spare food products and Embraer (ERJ) planes from the 50% tariff, according to Reuters citing a source.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Governor Kugler will miss this week’s FOMC meeting due to a personal matter.

DATA RECAP

• US Consumer Confidence (Jul) 97.2 vs. Exp. 95.0 (Prev. 93.0)
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) 7.437M vs. Exp. 7.5M (Prev. 7.769M, Rev. 7.712M)
• US Monthly Home Price MM (May) -0.2% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -0.3%)
• US Monthly Home Price YY (May) 2.8% (Prev. 3.0%, Rev. 3.2%)
• US CaseShiller 20 MM SA (May) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.3%)
• US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (May) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.4%)
• US Wholesale Inventories Adv (Jun) 0.2% (Prev. -0.3%)
• US Adv. Goods Trade Balance (Jun) -85.99B vs. Exp. -98.2B (Prev. -96.42B)

FX

• USD extended on gains and was supported by the continued EUR sell-off in the aftermath of the announced EU-US trade deal which Germany and France have sounded negative on, while the US Commerce Secretary expects talks to continue, but noted with "Plenty of horse trading left to do in EU talks". Elsewhere, there was plenty of focus on the second day of US-China trade talks in Stockholm, where officials are pushing for a 90-day extension on the tariff truce but with the final decision up to President Trump who will meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday, while participants also look ahead to the FOMC.
• EUR continued to underperform against the greenback following the US-EU trade deal and with a lack of data from the bloc.
• GBP was among the outperformers in the G10 and was ultimately little changed against the dollar after a choppy performance at the 1.3300 handle.
• JPY eked slight gains albeit with price action in USD/JPY contained at the 148.00 handle heading into the start of the BoJ's two-day meeting.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes gained throughout the session after cooling house price data, soft JOLTS, and a stellar 7yr auction ahead of Fed.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices saw firm gains with price buoyed after US President Trump confirmed changing the Russia deadline with the deadline set for 10 days, while it was simultaneously reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent told Chinese officials that given US secondary tariff legislation on sanctioned Russian oil, China could face high tariffs if it continues to purchase it.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +1.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate +4.2mln (exp. +0.3mln), Gasoline -1.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing +0.5mln.
• Foreign oil companies in Venezuela await US authorisations, according to Reuters citing sources.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said ceasefire negotiations continue despite Hamas’s refusal.
• UK PM Starmer's office told the cabinet that the UK will recognise the state of Palestine in September before the UNGA, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the situation in Gaza.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said on changing the Russia deadline, that it's 10 days from today, referring to threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil, while he added that tariffs may or may not impact Russia and that there was no response from Russia on tariffs. Trump commented on Russian oil that he doesn’t worry about it as they have so much oil in the US and will just step it up further, as well as noted that oil prices are currently pretty low.
• Russia's Kremlin said it has taken note of US President Trump's statement on a shorter deadline for the Ukraine ceasefire and stated that operations in Ukraine are continuing, while it declined to comment on Trump's comment that he is no longer interested in talks. Furthermore, it stated there are no contacts between Moscow and Washington on a possible renewal of the nuclear arms control treaty.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• China is to ‘tighten oversight’ in crowded manufacturing sectors such as EVs and solar power, according to SCMP.
• China’s Industry Minister met with a delegation of US firms on Tuesday (as touted) with Apple (AAPL) among the firms in the meeting, while China's Industry Minister hopes the council will encourage more US-funded firms to invest in China.
• Taiwan Stock Exchange said Hon Hai (2317 TT) is to suspend share trading on July 30th pending a major announcement.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB's Makhlouf said he thinks they have reached a point in the easing cycle where they can wait and see whether the data and evidence indicate the need for a change in their monetary policy stance.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Jun) 1-year CPI 2.6% (prev. 2.8%), 3-year 2.8% (prev. 2.8%), 5-year 2.1% (prev. 2.1%)