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US stocks saw mild gains to start the week as NVIDIA gains supported stocks in light newsflow - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Monday, Sep 29, 2025 - 08:28 PM
  • US stocks saw mild gains to start the week as NVIDIA gains (PT raise at Jefferies) supported in light newsflow.
  • The Dollar was lower, in what was a pretty quiet day for newsflow ahead of an action-packed week, which is headlined by the US jobs report on Friday.
  • T-notes bid ahead of a slew of US jobs data this week; WTI and Brent slumped at the start of the week, weighed by a couple of bearish factors.
  • The BLS reportedly plans not to release economic data during a government shutdown and will suspend all operations if one occurs, according to Bloomberg.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Bostic, South Korean Industrial Output, Japanese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, BoJ SOO, New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook and Own Activity, Australian Building approvals, Chinese NBS and RatingDog PMIs, Supply from Japan, RBA Policy Announcement and Press Conference.

 

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SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

  • US stocks saw mild gains to start the week as NVIDIA gains (PT raise at Jefferies) supported in light newsflow, with Fed speak coming via Williams, Musalem, and Hammack, and US data in pending home sales, which was better than expected.
  • SPX +0.26% at 6,661, NDX +0.44% at 24,611, DJI +0.15% at 46,316, RUT +0.04% at 2,435
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • The BLS reportedly plans not to release economic data during a government shutdown and will suspend all operations if one occurs, according to Bloomberg.
  • US President Trump will meet with congressional leaders at 20:00BST/15:00ET, via Punchbowl.
  • The White House called for a clean government funding bill, according to Reuters.

TARIFFS/TRADE

  • US President Trump said he will impose 100% tariffs on all movies made outside the US, via Truth Social.
  • US President Trump said tariffs will be placed on furniture made outside the US, via Truth Social.
  • China’s Commerce Minister Wentao opposed US export control measures, urging Washington to correct its wrong practices and stop unreasonable oppression of Chinese firms, according to Reuters.
  • Switzerland has offered to invest in the US gold-refining industry as part of efforts to persuade the Trump administration to lower the 39% import tariff imposed last month, according to Bloomberg.

DATA RECAP

  • US Pending Sales Change MM (Aug) 4.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -0.3%)
  • US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx (Sep) -8.7 (Prev. -1.8)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • The SNB said it is lowering the threshold factor for the remuneration of sight deposits from 18 to 16.5 as of November 1st, according to Reuters.
  • Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said it is a challenging time for monetary policy, noting the labour market is broadly in balance but seeing fragility in the data and warning that tariffs may not be a one-time impact. She said restrictive policy is still needed, inflation will not return to 2% until late 2027 or early 2028, services inflation remains concerning, inflation expectations are mostly anchored but showing some signs of worry, and that inflation is a greater concern than employment, according to Reuters.
  • Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter) said inflation is too high and the trend is in the wrong direction, adding that tariffs are a big part of the inflation story, according to Reuters. Fed’s Hammack said tariff pass-through has been less than expected but firms are expected to pass on more of the costs, according to Reuters.
  • Fed’s Musalem (2025 voter) said short-term inflation expectations are somewhat high but long-term expectations remain anchored, while risks of labour market weakening have increased. He said inflation is expected to stay elevated for two or three quarters, noted monetary policy is between modestly restrictive and neutral, and added he is open-minded to potential future cuts but stressed the need for caution with limited room before policy becomes too loose. He said the impact of tariffs has been more muted than expected and accounts for perhaps 10% of current inflation, while the labour market continues to soften but remains near full employment, according to Reuters.
  • Fed’s Williams (voter) said monetary policy remains restrictive and continues to put downward pressure on inflation, adding the Fed still has a way to go to reach its 2% target. He noted underlying inflation is moderating and the labour market has been resilient but is gradually softening, stressing they do not want to see it weaken too far. Williams said policy is a balancing act, some upside inflation risks have ebbed making recent rate cuts sensible, and decisions will be made meeting by meeting. He added some factors keeping neutral rates low are still in place, a low underlying interest rate world is likely to persist, and his model estimates the real neutral rate at 0.75%, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ’s Noguchi said Japan is moving towards its 2% inflation target, that the need for policy adjustment has heightened, and that policy must remain flexible. He said the economy and prices face downside risks, but upside risks are becoming increasingly important in policy decisions, according to Reuters
  • NBH Deputy Governor Virag said risks from premature rate easing are asymmetrical and could revive inflation and weaken financial market stability, according to Reuters.
  • BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden said the MPC expects inflation to rise slightly before peaking, while the labour market continues to loosen and wage growth normalises. He highlighted the significance of food prices for household inflation expectations, expressed confidence UK inflation will return to target, noted surprise at the prolonged adjustment in wage-setting behaviour, and said there is scope for additional removal of policy restraint, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Lane said the inflation outlook is reasonably benign, according to Reuters.
  • The Bank of Israel held its interest rate at 4.5% in September, in line with expectations, according to Reuters.
  • Brazil’s Central Bank Director Gullen said economic activity indicators have shown some moderation as expected, reflecting the impact of tight monetary policy, according to Reuters.

FX

  • The Dollar was lower, in what was a pretty quiet day for newsflow ahead of an action-packed week, which is headlined by the US jobs report on Friday. Fed speak came via Williams, Hammack, and Musalem, and the data was in the form of pending home sales, which were much better than anticipated.
  • G10FX saw gains across the board vs. the Buck, with the Yen outperforming and buoyed by comments from BoJ’s Noguchi overnight, whereby he noted that upside risks are becoming more important in making policy decisions, and the need to adjust policy has heightened. USD/JPY traded between 148.48-149.51.
  • EMFX was broadly firmer, taking advantage of the weaker Dollar. Out of CEE, NBH Deputy Governor Virag said risks from any premature rate easing are asymmetrical, and such a move could revive inflation and weaken financial market stability.

FIXED INCOME

  • T-notes bid ahead of a slew of US jobs data this week.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent were lower to start the week, weighed by a couple of bearish factors.
  • Turkey's Ceyhan receiving flow of 150-160k BPD of crude oil from Iraq's Kurdistan region, via Reuters citing two industry sources.

GEOPOLITICAL

NATO

  • Romania’s Defence Ministry said another drone fell on Romanian territory, according to Reuters.

MIDDLE EAST

  • In a joint statement on the activation of snapback, the E3 said they continue to share the fundamental objective that Iran must never seek, acquire, or develop nuclear weapons. They said they will continue to pursue diplomatic channels and negotiations, and urged Iran to refrain from escalatory actions and to resume compliance with its legally binding safeguards commitments, according to Reuters.
  • The White House said a deal on Gaza is very close, with President Trump set to speak with Qatar on the proposal, and he expects Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hamas to agree to his plan, according to Reuters.
  • A Dutch-flagged cargo ship sustained substantial damage after being hit by an explosive device in the Gulf of Aden, with a fire breaking out onboard and two crew members injured, via Reuters citing the ship operator.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with the Qatari PM by phone, apologised for violating Qatari sovereignty in the strike on Doha and expressed regret for the killing of a Qatari security guard, according to Axios’ Ravid citing sources via X.
  • US President Trump said they are "beyond very close" on a Gaza peace deal and thanked Israeli PM Netanyahu for agreeing to the plan; Netanyahu spoke on Iran, trade, the Abraham Accords and ending the Gaza war; Trump said if Hamas rejects the deal Israel has his full backing to destroy Hamas, adding he is hearing that Hamas wants to get this done, that parties will agree a timeline for Israeli withdrawal and he feels they will have a positive answer from Hamas; he also said he expects Iran will be a member of the Abraham Accords one day, according to Reuters.
  • The White House posted a 20-point comprehensive plan to end the Gaza conflict, stating Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors and will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough; if both sides agree to the proposal, the war will immediately end, Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release, all military operations including aerial and artillery bombardment will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for complete staged withdrawal; within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting the agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned, according to X.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukraine President Zelenskiy proposed to allies the creation of a joint shield against Russian aerial threats and said Russia will not be drawing new borders in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • The Kremlin said the Russian military is monitoring US supplies of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, according to Reuters.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • DeepSeek released an “intermediate step” model geared towards next-generation architecture, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Switzerland and the US issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment not to target FX rates for competitive purposes, according to Reuters.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves said she will work to bring inflation down, reiterated her commitment to fiscal rules and stability and to not increasing VAT, income tax or NI, and added that the UK does not need a wealth tax. She said she will keep taxes, inflation, and rates as low as possible, according to Reuters. UK Chief Secretary to the PM Jones said, in the context of Labour potentially deviating from manifesto pledges around tax, that "the manifesto stands today because decisions haven’t been taken yet", according to Reuters.
  • Italy set to forecast 2025 budget deficit at or below 3% of GDP, in line with EU rules, according to Reuters, citing sources.

DATA RECAP

  • Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Sep) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.7%); Core 2.3% (prev. 2.4%)
  • Spanish HICP Flash YY (Sep) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (prev. 2.7%)
  • Spanish HICP Flash MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%); CPI MM Flash NSA (Sep) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.00%)
  • EU Consumer Confidence Final (Sep) -14.9 vs. Exp. -14.9 (Prev. -14.9); Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 6.9 (Prev. 6.7, Rev. 6.8); Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 24.0 (Prev. 25.9, Rev. 25.8)
  • UK Mortgage Lending (Aug) 4.308B GB vs. Exp. 4.8B GB (Prev. 4.522B GB, Rev. 4.506B GB); Approvals (Aug) 64.68k vs. Exp. 64.5k (Prev. 65.352k, Rev. 65.161k)
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