US stocks were choppy and finished mixed on the eve of the FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were choppy on the eve of the FOMC, although the Russell 2000 outperformed and Dow Jones lagged, with weakness in the latter ensuing after JP Morgan's Lake gave some Q4 guidance - IB revenue up low single digits, and markets revenue up low teens. This pressured JPM shares and weighed on the Financial sector, while Energy, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed. The attention was also on data, and T-Notes flattened in response to the September and October JOLTS report, which saw a notable increase, rising to 7.67mln in October from 7.23mln in August, which was well above the 7.15mln forecast, and saw traders pare rate cut bets in 2026, but December pricing was little changed.
• USD was slightly firmer following a stronger-than-expected JOLTS reading in October in which job openings rose to 7.67mln (exp. 7.15mln) from the 7.658mln seen in September, which was part of the October report due to the government shutdown. The release sent US yields higher and underpinned the dollar, although choppy trade then ensued, but with the upside eventually holding.
• Looking ahead, highlights include South Korean Unemployment, Japanese PPI, Chinese CPI & PPI, Supply from Australia.

More Newsquawk in 2 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include South Korean Unemployment, Japanese PPI, Chinese CPI & PPI, Supply from Australia.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were choppy on the eve of the FOMC, although the Russell 2000 outperformed and Dow Jones lagged, with weakness in the latter ensuing after JP Morgan's Lake gave some Q4 guidance - IB revenue up low single digits, and markets revenue up low teens. This pressured JPM shares and weighed on the Financial sector, while Energy, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed. The attention was also on data, and T-Notes flattened in response to the September and October JOLTS report, which saw a notable increase, rising to 7.67mln in October from 7.23mln in August, which was well above the 7.15mln forecast, and saw traders pare rate cut bets in 2026, but December pricing was little changed.
• SPX -0.10% at 6,840, NDX +0.16% at 25,669, DJI -0.37% at 47,561, RUT +0.24% at 2,527.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said US national security has been enhanced by tariffs and the US has become the strongest country.
• China is buying US soybeans again, but falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement, according to CNBC, while it noted that China has bought less than 3mln metric tons of soybeans since October, which is well short of the 12mln metric tons goal set by a trade deal with President Trump.
• China is set to limit access to NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 chips despite export approval from US President Trump, according to FT citing sources, although no decision has been made on the matter.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) chips that are allowed to be exported to China will undergo a special security review before they are exported, according to WSJ citing officials.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump told POLITICO that he would make support for immediately slashing interest rates a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said "have to wait and see" on how much the Fed should cut and would put Treasury Secretary Bessent at the top of the list for running the Fed, but he does not want the job. Hassett added there is plenty of room for the Fed to cut, while he responded "that is correct" when asked if there is room for more than a 25bps cut.
• US Senate Majority Leader Thune said the Senate will vote on the GOP plan to address healthcare subsidies on Thursday.

DATA RECAP

• US Leading Index Change MM (Sep) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.5%)
• US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Nov) 99.0 (Prev. 98.2)
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Oct) 7.670mln vs. Exp. 7.15M (Prev. 7.227M); Sept 7.658mln.

FX

• USD was slightly firmer following a stronger-than-expected JOLTS reading in October in which job openings rose to 7.67mln (exp. 7.15mln) from the 7.658mln seen in September, which was part of the October report due to the government shutdown. The release sent US yields higher and underpinned the dollar, although choppy trade then ensued, but with the upside eventually holding.
• EUR mildly softened, albeit with the downside contained amid a relatively tight range and with very few catalysts for the single currency.
• GBP marginally declined to just beneath the 1.3300 level, while there were a slew of comments from BoE officials, including Ramsden who stated that a gradual removal of policy restraint is appropriate.
• JPY continued to underperform with USD/JPY approaching just shy of the 157.00 handle despite a potential BoJ rate hike at next week's meeting, while participants also look ahead to Japanese PPI data overnight before tomorrow's FOMC main event.

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes were lower and the curve flattened amid rising JOLTS ahead of the FOMC, with traders paring 2026 rate cut bets.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices were lower, albeit with the benchmarks rangebound as focus remained on Ukraine/Russia ahead of the Fed on Wednesday.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Distillate +1.0mln (exp. +1.9mln), Gasoline +7.0mln (exp. +2.8mln), Cushing -0.9mln.
• EIA STEO showed world oil demand outlook was slightly lowered for 2025 to 103.9mln BPD (prev. 104.1mln BPD), but the production outlook was raised to 106.2mln BPD (prev. 106mln BPD), while demand and production outlooks were unchanged for 2026. 2025 at 105.2mln BPD and 107.4mln BPD, respectively.
• Operations resumed at Libya's Zueitina, Ras Lanuf, Es Sider, and Brega oil terminals, according to Reuters citing sources.
• Russian crude output lags OPEC+ quota on sanctions and attacks, while an average 9.43mln bpd were pumped in November, according to people with knowledge of the data cited by Bloomberg.

GEOPOLITICAL

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump gave Ukrainian President Zelensky "days" to respond to the peace proposal, according to FT.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and Europe are ready to present a peace plan to the US, while he added that refined documents are to be sent to the US in the "near future".
• Ukraine President Zelensky sees leader-level talks with the US next week, and said Ukraine is ready for an energy ceasefire if Russia agrees, while he wants to discuss restoration of Ukraine as part of peace plan preparation with the US. Zelensky also said they are ready to hold elections and ask US and European partners to guarantee security during the process, as well as noted that if security is guaranteed, elections could be held in the next 60-90 days.
• Ukrainian top commander Syrskyi said Ukrainian troops were able to take control of parts of Pokrovsk from mid-November and are now holding the northern parts of the city, while he added the situation in Pokrovsk is still difficult as Russians have amassed 156k troops and use rain and fog as cover.
• Russia's Kremlin said European claims that Russian President Putin plans to attack NATO are "complete nonsense", while it added that Putin does not want to restore the USSR.
• EU's Costa said they are very close to a solution to get a qualified majority on Russian frozen assets.
• Chinese and Russian militaries organised and carried out the tenth joint air strategic cruise, according to Chinese state media.

OTHER

• US President Trump told POLITICO he could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Chinese Premier Li said China will adhere to expanding domestic demand, and will implement more proactive macro policies.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said the RBNZ has achieved a great deal towards delivery of its mandated functions, while she added they are keeping a close look at data including inflation and GDP. Breman also said there is no preset course for monetary policy and will adjust if they see the outlook for inflation change.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE's Dhingra said she is very concerned about food prices, but noted that disinflation is on track and higher UK inflation than the EZ is not due to persistence, but one-off administered prices. Dhingra also said there is a backdrop of weak consumption and labour slowdown, while she does not see the need for policy to be "so restrictive". Furthermore, she commented that the overall impact of the UK budget is not large, but it is in the right direction.
• BoE's Lombardelli said she worries more about upside risks to inflation, and is less convinced than others about the restrictiveness of the policy. Lombardelli also said she is more concerned about the supply side of the labour market than demand.
• BoE's Mann said inflation persistence has been her key view, and that looking forward, budget changes will lead to a lower inflation rate.
• BoE's Ramsden said he doesn't rule out the worry of persistence, and a gradual removal of policy restraint is appropriate. Furthermore, Ramsden does not currently think there is evidence to suggest that the economy is developing out of line with BoE baseline forecasts, while he noted that the neutral rate is 'close to middle' of the 2-4% range.

DATA RECAP

• German Trade Balance (EUR)(Oct) 16.9B vs. Exp. 15.6B (Prev. 15.3B)
• German Exports MM (Oct) 0.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.4%)
• German Imports MM (Oct) -1.2% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 3.1%)