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US stocks were mostly lower as yields climbed and amid hot ISM data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Monday, Apr 01, 2024 - 09:25 PM
  • US stocks were largely sold with underperformance in the rate-sensitive sectors of the market after a hot ISM manufacturing survey unwound Fed cut expectations in which the market is now priced for around 65bps of Fed cuts this year vs 70bps+ before the data and the first fully priced cut has been pushed back to September from July. Treasuries were heavily pressured amid the hot ISM data, the passing of month-end buying and a healthy slew of corporate debt deals.
  • USD strengthened and the DXY briefly rose above the 105.00 level as yields climbed and with the gains amplified by stronger-than-expected ISM data which also saw an acceleration of prices.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Manufacturing PMI, South Korean CPI, Japanese Monetary Base, RBA Minutes, Comments from RBA's Kent & Fed's Cook, Supply from Japan.

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • Highlights include Australian Manufacturing PMI, South Korean CPI, Japanese Monetary Base, RBA Minutes, Comments from RBA's Kent & Fed's Cook, Supply from Japan.
  • Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

  • US stocks were largely sold with underperformance in the rate-sensitive sectors of the market after a hot ISM manufacturing survey unwound Fed cut expectations in which the market is now priced for around 65bps of Fed cuts this year vs 70bps+ before the data and the first fully priced cut has been pushed back to September from July. Treasuries were heavily pressured amid the hot ISM data, the passing of month-end buying and a healthy slew of corporate debt deals.
  • SPX -0.20% at 5,244, NDX +0.21% at 18,293, DJI -0.60% at 39,567, RUT -1.02% at 2,103.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

DATA RECAP

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) 51.9 (Prev. 52.5)
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.3 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 47.8)
  • US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Mar) 55.8 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.5)
  • US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Mar) 51.4 (Prev. 49.2)
  • US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (Mar) 47.4 (Prev. 45.9)
  • US Construction Spending MM (Feb) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.2%)
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.8% (prev. 2.3% on March 29th)

FX

  • USD strengthened and the DXY briefly rose above the 105.00 level as yields climbed and with the gains amplified by stronger-than-expected ISM data which also saw an acceleration of prices.
  • EUR weakened amid the firmer buck and pulled back from resistance at the 1.0800 level with little out of the eurozone amid the mass holiday closures, while the focus turns to German CPI.
  • GBP was pressured and gave up the 1.2600 status as cyclical currencies suffered from the stronger dollar and risk-aversion, while UK participants were also away for holiday.
  • JPY mildly softened against the dollar with USD/JPY trading north of 151.50.

FIXED INCOME

  • Treasuries were heavily pressured amid hot ISM data and the passing of month-end buying.

COMMODITIES

  • Oil prices continued their breakout following stronger-than-expected US and Chinese PMI data. Furthermore, a Reuters survey showed Saudi may increase the Arab light crude OSP to Asia by USD 0.20-0.30/bbl, while tensions between Israel and Iran also contributed to the tailwind for prices.
  • OPEC March oil output fell by 50k bpd M/M to 26.42mln bpd, according to a Reuters survey.
  • India's top refiner is set to tap spot oil as its Russian term deal lapses, with Rosneft and Indian Oil Corp. yet to renew a supply deal which expired in March and were unable to agree on price and volumes, according to Reuters citing sources.

GEOPOLITICAL

  • Israeli airstrike on Damascus killed the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Iran's Ambassador to Syria said Tehran's response will be harsh. It was also reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian said the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus is "a breach of all international conventions" and Tehran holds Israel responsible for the consequences of the attack, according to state media.
  • Iran said it preserves the right to take reciprocal actions against Israeli attack in Damascus on the Iranian consulate and Tehran will decide on the type of response and punishment against the aggressor, according to state media.
  • Israel PM Netanyahu said he is to act immediately to ban Al Jazeera broadcasts, while the Israeli parliament passed a law to shut down the local Al Jazeera office.
  • UK MTO received a report of an incident 150NM northwest of Yemen's Hodeidah.
  • US President Biden’s administration is reportedly considering the approval of a USD 18bln sale of aircraft and other munitions to Israel including F-15 jets.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Japan’s government issued an emergency earthquake warning for the Aomari, Iwate prefecture although no tsunami warning was issued after a 6.1 magnitude earthquake.
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