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US stocks were ultimately mixed although most indices extended on record highs with tech doing the heavy lifting - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 - 09:41 PM
  • US stocks were ultimately mixed although most indices finished in the green in which the SPX, DJIA and NDX extended on record highs, with outperformance in tech amid strength in NVIDIA (+5%) alongside CEO Huang's keynote address at GTC, where new lines of products and roadmaps were unveiled, including NVIDIA Arc, 17 quantum builders, and 7 new AI supercomputers. Furthermore, the Co. sees USD 500bln of business in the next five quarters. Microsoft (+2%) also facilitated the upside in tech after signing a new pact with OpenAI, which includes OpenAI being contracted to purchase USD 25bln of Azure services as well as removing fundraising constraints for OpenAI. On the flip side, most sectors were pressured, with Real Estate the biggest loser as poor guidance from Alexandria Real Estate (-19.2%) weighed.
  • USD traded marginally softer following mixed data releases and with initial gains reversed after stalling just shy of the 99.00 level, while all focus turns to the FOMC on Wednesday.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Quarterly & Monthly CPI, Japanese Household Confidence, Hong Kong Holiday Closure.

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LOOKING AHEAD

US TRADE

  • US stocks were ultimately mixed although most indices finished in the green in which the SPX, DJIA and NDX extended on record highs, with outperformance in tech amid strength in NVIDIA (+5%) alongside CEO Huang's keynote address at GTC, where new lines of products and roadmaps were unveiled, including NVIDIA Arc, 17 quantum builders, and 7 new AI supercomputers. Furthermore, the Co. sees USD 500bln of business in the next five quarters. Microsoft (+2%) also facilitated the upside in tech after signing a new pact with OpenAI, which includes OpenAI being contracted to purchase USD 25bln of Azure services as well as removing fundraising constraints for OpenAI. On the flip side, most sectors were pressured, with Real Estate the biggest loser as poor guidance from Alexandria Real Estate (-19.2%) weighed.
  • SPX +0.23% at 6,891, NDX +0.74% at 26,012, DJI +0.34% at 47,706, RUT -0.60% at 2.507.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

  • US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdown, in which the US would cut in half the 20% levies on Chinese goods imposed in retaliation for the export of chemicals that make deadly synthetic opioids, while the US would roll back some tariffs on China if Beijing cracks down on the export of chemicals that produce fentanyl. However, the expected agreements are subject to change and dependent on the meeting of the two leaders, while details are expected to be hammered out in subsequent negotiations, while the US and China are also expected to reduce port fees on each other’s ships, according to WSJ
  • US President Trump said he thinks the meeting with Chinese President Xi will work out well.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said the growth of bilateral trade between the US and Japan should be on maintaining peace and stability.
  • US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said "Japan's commitment to buy USD 8bln in US corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol, and other agricultural goods is a game-changer".
  • ECB's Panetta said the fall in Chinese exports to the US and increase in exports to the EU confirms the risk of a broad redirection of Chinese production towards EU markets.
  • US Charge d'affaires in Brazil met mining executives on Tuesday to discuss rare earths.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • US President Trump said he is thinking about Scott Bessent for the Fed, while he added that Bessent soothes the markets, but he doesn't want to be Fed Chair. Trump also commented that Fed Chair Powell will be out in a few months.
  • US President Trump said he will send in "more than the National Guard" into US cities if required.
  • US President Trump said he is meeting with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang on Wednesday.
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the US will sign USD 490bln investment deals.
  • US Democratic-led states filed a lawsuit to block the Trump administration from suspending SNAP benefits during the government shutdown.
  • US Federal judge plans to block Trump shutdown layoffs, according to Bloomberg.

DATA RECAP

  • US Consumer Confidence (Oct) 94.6 vs. Exp. 93.2 (Prev. 94.2, Rev. 95.6)
  • US Richmond Fed Comp. Index (Oct) -4.0 (Prev. -17.0)
  • US Richmond Fed, Services Index (Oct) 4.0 (Prev. 1.0)
  • US Richmond Fed Mfg Shipments (Oct) 4.0 (Prev. -20.0)
  • US CaseShiller 20 YY NSA (Aug) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.8%)
  • US Monthly Home Price YY (Aug) 2.3% (Prev. 2.3%, Rev. 2.4%)
  • ADP Preliminary US estimate is an average increase of 14,250 Jobs in the four weeks ending on October 11th, 2025.

FX

  • USD traded marginally softer following mixed data releases and with initial gains reversed after stalling just shy of the 99.00 level, while all focus turns to the FOMC on Wednesday.
  • EUR eked slight gains but with upside limited and trade kept to within narrow parameters amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and after the ECB survey showed 1-year consumer inflation expectations were slightly lowered, but 3-year and 5-year expectations were unchanged.
  • GBP was the underperformer in the G10 space as fiscal woes continue to cloud an optimistic narrative on the currency.
  • JPY strengthened on the day but was off today’s best levels with some mild headwinds seen after Finance Minister Katayama noted that they didn't think the remarks from US Treasury Secretary Bessent encouraged a rate hike from the BoJ.

FIXED INCOME

  • T-notes eked marginal gains but with upside limited ahead of the FOMC.

COMMODITIES

  • Oil prices were lower with reports of OPEC+ hiking supply on Sunday and participants digesting Russia sanctions seemingly weighed.
  • Iraq's Oil Minister said 400k-600k barrels were lost during the Zubair oil field fire and that it has started compensating for the loss.
  • Indian companies will not buy oil from Rosneft and Lukoil supplied by traders, according to Reuters citing Indian government sources.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu held an emergency meeting today to discuss Hamas' "violations" of the Gaza ceasefire, according to Sky News Arabia. It was later reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately carry out attacks in Gaza and that Israeli planes launched strikes on Gaza City.
  • Israel reportedly decided that the area under Israeli control in the Gaza Strip will be expanded in response to violations by Hamas, according to Jerusalem Post. Furthermore, sources stated the response to the current violations by Hamas will be significantly greater than the response last time, while Israel Army Radio announced that Washington has agreed to Israeli PM Netanyahu's proposal to expand the "yellow line" in Gaza.
  • Channel 12 quoted an Israeli official stating that they will take steps against Hamas' violation of the agreement to return the bodies, while it was separately reported that Hamas operatives had opened fire at Israeli forces in Gaza.
  • Hamas said it had no connection to an attack on Israeli forces in Rafah, and it is committed to a ceasefire deal.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will ‘take no steps back’ on the battlefield to cede territory, and that Ukraine is ready for peace talks anywhere besides Russia and Belarus if it ends the war. Zelensky urged the US Congress to pass tougher sanctions on Russia and said Ukraine would need financing from European allies for the next 2–3 years. Furthermore, he said Ukraine has used domestically produced Ruta and Flamingo missiles on Russian targets and hopes to launch in greater quantities, while it was also noted that Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia have led to 22%–27% fuel reduction and loss of more than 20% oil refining capacity.
  • Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said officials from Ukraine and Europe are to meet at the end of the week to work on ceasefire details.
  • Russia's Kremlin, on Ukraine peace negotiations, said Russia cannot assess the prospects and that Kyiv caused the pause, while it stated there are foreign fighters at the front line in Ukraine and "we shall destroy them".
  • Russia's Kremlin, on US President Trump’s statements that countries should cease buying Russian oil, stated that many say they will figure it out for themselves, and partners will make up their own minds about whether or not to buy top-quality Russian energy products.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • China released its proposal for the 15th five-year plan which stated that China faces difficult challenges in the global trade order, but noted that the economic growth potential is to be fully released, and it vowed to strengthen national security barriers. China said tech self-reliance is to be greatly improved, and it will deepen reform and continue high-quality development, as well as noted that domestic demand continues to play a stronger role and it will vigorously boost consumption. Furthermore, it will give full play to the role of proactive fiscal policy and increase the share of central government fiscal spending, according to Xinhua.
  • Japanese PM Takaichi said she confirmed the promotion of multilateral alliances with like-minded countries including South Korea, India, the Philippines and Australia with US President Trump.
  • Japanese Industry Minister Akazawa stated that Japanese auto sector investment in the US will remain at high levels.
  • US and South Korea are to sign a deal boosting AI and Quantum computing, according to Bloomberg News.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Chancellor Reeves said too much costs trading with the EU is pushing inflation up, but sees "huge benefits" in rebuilding some EU relationships.

DATA RECAP

  • ECB Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year CPI 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 3-year 2.5% (prev. 2.5%), 5-year 2.2% (prev. 2.2%)
  • German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Nov) -24.1 vs. Exp. -22.0 (Prev. -22.3, Rev. -22.5).
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