PremiumWargaming The AI Crash: TS Lombard Sees A $20 Trillion Wipeout... But Only A "Mild" Recession
Nobody on Wall Street is asking whether AI is a bubble anymore.
As TS Lombard's Dario Perkins puts it, "even the AI sceptics are fully invested", so the only questions left are when it pops and how much damage it does. Last week, the market got a preview of the answer, when CoreWeave's CDS priced roughly 63% odds of default, neoclouds lost a fifth of their value in five sessions and the Nasdaq suffered its worst week since Liberation Day, something we covered in "The Pain Trade Was Long AI, Short Bonds". Which is why the timing of Perkins' latest Macro Picture note, "Wargaming The AI Crash" (available to pro subs), could hardly be better: rather than argue (again) about whether the AI capex boom is sustainable, he simply assumes it isn't, and models the fallout.