Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other's major cities, with exchanges of fire continuing into a third day on Sunday, according to multiple media outlets. 
• Israeli drones on Saturday targeted the South Pars Gas Refinery and the Fajr Jam Gas Refinery, according to Tasnim News Agency.
• US President Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: "Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal,we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place."
• US President Trump said the US might get involved in the Israel-Iran war, according to ABC. The US is not currently considering joining the war against Iran to eliminate its nuclear program, according to ABC News report.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Activity Data. 

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GEOPOLITICS - IRAN/ISRAEL

WEEKEND UPDATES

Strikes

• Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other's major cities, with exchanges of fire continuing into a third day on Sunday, according to multiple media outlets.
• Iran fired more ballistic missiles toward Israel, while Israel struck several areas in Tehran, including Niavaran, Valiasr Square, and Hafte Tir Square, according to Al Jazeera.
• Iranian strikes targeted a power station in Hadera and the Netanyahu family's residence in Caesarea, according to Israeli media cited by Middle East Eye.
• Israel launched a barrage of strikes across Iran on Sunday, stretching from the west to Tehran and Mashhad in the east, after Israeli PM Netanyahu had vowed to make the country pay "a very heavy price" for killing civilians, according to AFP. The Israeli army launched an attack on several military targets in western Tehran, according to journalist Elster on X. The Israeli Army said it had attacked more than 170 targets and over 720 Iranian military facilities in less than three days.
• The Israeli Ambassador to the US told Fox News that they still had a few surprises up their sleeve for Iran.
• IDF Spokesperson citing the Chief of Staff: "The IDF, through the Air Force, has completed paving the way to Tehran, and is precisely and extensively attacking the regime's infrastructure and nuclear program in a way the enemy never imagined."
• Israeli government approved extending the state of emergency until June.
• The IRGC confirmed the deaths of several high-ranking officers. Iran officially confirms that IRGC intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq were killed in Israeli strikes on Sunday.

Oil, Gas, Nuclear Facilities

• Israeli drones on Saturday targeted the South Pars Gas Refinery and the Fajr Jam Gas Refinery, according to Tasnim News Agency. Iran has partially suspended gas production at the world's biggest gas field - the South Pars gas field - after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday, according to Reuters.
• The Israeli Bezan Petroleum Company said Saturday's Iranian bombing had caused damage to the oil refinery and its extensions in Haifa Bay.
• Israel Army said it had struck hard Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility, according to reports.
• Isfahan refinery units were in stable condition, IRNA said on Sunday.
• A senior Israeli official said the operation would have been useless without destroying the Fordow nuclear reactor in Iran, according to Al Arabiya citing the official.
• Kpler's Bakr posted "So far there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran, we’ll continue to monitor the situation...Without a supply outage, there will be no need from anyone to add more barrels onto the market", via X.
• The UK said it was worried about Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomacy

• US President Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: "Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal..we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place."
• Mediation efforts to stop the war with Iran had begun, according to Yedioth Ahronoth citing an Israeli official. Yedioth Ahronoth quoted an Israeli official as saying there was no good proposal yet to stop the war with Iran.
• One Israeli official told Axios that Israel was not interested in a ceasefire at that time because it had not yet achieved all of its goals, particularly in destroying Iran's nuclear programme. Israeli officials said there was currently no serious diplomatic initiative to stop the war with Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said regime change in Iran was likely through Israeli military operations, according to Reuters.
• Turkish President Erdogan Erdogan told US President Trump that Turkey was ready to make every effort, including playing a facilitator role, according to Reuters.
• Russian official said Moscow is capable of playing a major role in mediating between Iran and Israel.
• "There’s a big mediation push by Gulf Arab states to end the conflict between Israel and Iran, but so far no signs of things calming down", according to Kpler's Bakr.
• Iran's Foreign Minister said they will halt attacks on Israel if Israeli strikes stop.

Assassination Headlines

• A US official confirmed to Axio's Ravid that over the weekend, Israel had an operational window to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but President Trump made it clear he was against such a move, according to Axios.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran had fired a missile at his bedroom window but missed.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said intelligence showed Iranian attempts to assassinate US President Trump, calling him "enemy number one," and spoke about when he had informed President Trump of the plans for launching the strikes, according to Reuters.

Allies' Involvement

• US President Trump said the US might get involved in the Israel-Iran war., according to ABC.
• The US is not currently considering joining the war against Iran to eliminate its nuclear program, according to ABC News report.
• Israel’s minister called on the United States and Europe to join Iran's offensive, according to Reuters.
• IDF Spokesperson said alerts had been activated in the area surrounding Gaza and that details were being reviewed, according to Reuters.
• A Pakistani security source said rumours of Pakistan providing military support to Iran were false, according to Al‑Manar.
• A high-ranking Russian official has contacted several top Iranian officials offering a safe route out of the country. Several officials are reportedly finalizing their exit routes, according to Iran International.

Nuclear Deal

• Israeli PM Netanyahu told Fox News that they had known the negotiations between the US and Iran would not progress.
• US President Trump is still trying to resume talks with Iran, according to Axios.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• The US-China trade agreement in London did not resolve export restrictions linked to national security, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Foreign Ministry said Japan's PM, in a call with US President Trump, reiterated Japan's views on the US tariff measures, according to Reuters.

US TRADE

• US stocks saw heavy selling pressure amid the geopolitical escalation between Iran and Israel and closed around session lows on Friday.
• Sectors were lower across the board, aside from Energy, which was buoyed in the wake of the aforementioned geopolitics.
• SPX -1.13% at 5,977, NDX -1.29% at 21,631, DJI -1.79% at 42,198, RUT -1.85% at 2,101
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Trump administration reportedly weighs adding 36 countries to the travel ban, according to Reuters citing a memo.

DATA RECAP

• US U Mich Expectations Prelim (Jun) 58.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 47.9)
• US U Mich Sentiment Prelim (Jun) 60.5 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 52.2)
• US U Mich Conditions Prelim (Jun) 63.7 vs. Exp. 59.4 (Prev. 58.9)
• US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim (Jun) 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
• US U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim (Jun) 5.1% (Prev. 6.6%)
• Canadian Capacity Utilization (Q1) 80.1% vs. Exp. 79.8% (Prev. 79.8%)
• Canadian Wholesale Trade MM (Apr) -2.3% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. 0.2%)
• Canadian Manufacturing Sales MM (Apr) -2.8% vs. Exp. -2.0% (Prev. -1.4%)

FX

• USD was broadly firmer against peers, regaining its haven attraction. The Israel attack on Iran left geopolitics dominating headlines and price action in FX, crude, and bonds.
• G10 FX was largely lower to the end of the week, on account of the surging dollar as opposed to anything currency-specific.
• Safe-havens, CHF and JPY, were actually weaker despite the aforementioned global risk-off

FIXED INCOME

• T-notes were sold with the rally in crude, stoking inflationary fears.
• T-note Futures (U5) settled 14+ ticks lower at 110-19+.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices surged on Friday after Israel launched attacks on Iran. The marked geopolitical escalation overnight from Israel set the tone for risk-off sentiment and broader market moves.
• Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that "structurally strong central bank purchasing" will increase the gold price to USD 3,700/oz by the end of the year and USD 4,000 by mid-2026.
• WTI (N5) settled USD 4.94 higher at 72.98/bbl; Brent (Q5) settled USD 4.87 higher at USD 74.23/bbl.
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: Oil -3 at 439, Natgas -1 at 113, Total -4 at 555

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was choppy over the weekend but eventually rose above the USD 105k mark.
• Coinbase (COIN) was expected to receive an EU crypto license from Luxembourg, and Gemini was expected to receive a license in Malta, according to Reuters citing sources. European regulators had disagreed on a system for approving crypto licenses.

GEOPOLITICS

ISRAEL-IRAN: NOTABLE FRIDAY HEADLINES

• Iran will not participate in nuclear negotiations with the US scheduled for Sunday, Iran state TV reported.
• US President Trump told Axios that Israel's attack could help him make a deal with Iran, according to Reuters. When asked whether Israel's strike had jeopardized his nuclear diplomacy, Trump said, "I don't think so. Maybe the opposite. Maybe now they will negotiate seriously." He argued that after Israel's crippling strikes, Iran now had a stronger incentive to cut a deal. "I couldn't get them to a deal in 60 days. They were close, they should have done it. Maybe now it will happen."
• US forces were participating in defeating the Iranian attack on Israel, according to Axios' Ravid citing an Israeli official.
• An Iranian official on Friday said Iran would immediately target Israel's economic and energy infrastructure if Iran's own was hit, according to Fars News.
• Reports on Friday suggested Iran fired missiles at Israel from a submarine, according to Fars News.
• Israel's National Security Adviser said military means could not totally destroy Iran's nuclear programme, according to Reuters. Israel's National Security Adviser said they did not currently want to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, but wanted to make the Iranians understand that their nuclear programme had to be stopped, according to Reuters.
• Israel warned that Iran would pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas and might hit energy facilities in response, according to Guy Elster citing Channel 12 via X.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said they had taken out a large portion of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, according to the Israeli government.
• Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said the Iranian armed forces would leave Israel "hopeless"; Israel would not remain unscathed, and Tehran would not go for half measures in its response, according to Iranian state media.
• The IDF said they had destroyed a uranium metallic production facility, enriched uranium conversion infrastructure, and laboratories in Isfahan, via Sky News Arabia.
• IAEA Chief Grossi told the Security Council that the above-ground plant where Iran had been producing uranium enriched up to 60% had been destroyed, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump had spoken by phone with the Saudi Crown Prince about the war between Israel and Iran. The two had discussed the need to stop the escalation, according to the office of the Saudi Crown Prince.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US Senator Graham warned that sanctions would be brought to Congress if there was no breakthrough with Russian President Putin, and told US President Trump to alter the strategy with Putin, according to Reuters.
• EU is reportedly to force firms to disclose details of Russian gas deals, via Reuters citing documents; to prove imports are not of Russian origin. To ban LNG terminals from servicing Russian customers from January 1st.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

• China’s military conducted patrols in the South China Sea and warned the Philippines, according to Reuters.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Taiwan added China's Huawei and SMIC to its export control blacklist to combat arms proliferation and prevent tech transfers, according to Reuters.
• Amid rising global trade frictions and unilateral actions, China and Central Asian countries explored building a more resilient regional supply chain, with the China-Central Asia mechanism providing certainty amid external shifts, according to Global Times.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• S&P affirmed Germany at a 'AAA' rating; outlook stable.
• S&P affirmed Sweden at 'AAA' rating; outlook stable

DATA

• EU Industrial Production MM (Apr) -2.4% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. 2.6%, Rev. 2.4%)
• EU Data
• EU Industrial Production YY (Apr) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 3.6%, Rev. 3.7%)
• EU Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (Apr) 9.9B EU (Prev. 36.8B EU)

Source: Newsquawk