Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks were mixed on Friday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) lagging, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperforming. The former was weighed on by weakness in NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA, and PLTR, which saw large-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Technology as the only sectors in the red. Utilities and Health were the clear outperformers. Newsflow was very thin on Friday, with ISM Services and Fed speak the highlights given the postponement of the US payrolls report due to the US government shutdown. ISM Services disappointed on the headline and fell to 50.0 (exp. 51.7, prev. 52.0) and beneath the bottom end of the forecast range. Business activity and new orders tumbled, with the latter into contractionary territory, while employment and prices paid both ticked incrementally higher.
• Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM. Takaichi said they need speedy support for weak small- and medium-sized companies to help with wage growth, while she added that support is also needed for the farm sector, and urgent help is needed for the medical and nursing care sectors. Takaichi said one policy option is to increase subsidies to local governments and that she wants to submit a bill to abolish the extra gasoline tax and lower diesel fuel costs during the next parliament. Takaichi also said she won’t rule out lowering the consumption tax as an option and that they will honour the bilateral agreement made with the US.
• Eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by 137k bpd in November and the group cited a steady economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, while they will meet next on November 2nd.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Australian MI Inflation Gauge, New Zealand Commodity Price Index, Thailand CPI, Holiday Closures in South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Australian MI Inflation Gauge, New Zealand Commodity Price Index, Thailand CPI, Holiday Closures in South Korea, Taiwan and Mainland China.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks were mixed on Friday with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) lagging, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperforming. The former was weighed on by weakness in NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA, and PLTR, which saw large-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Technology as the only sectors in the red. Utilities and Health were the clear outperformers. Newsflow was very thin on Friday, with ISM Services and Fed speak the highlights given the postponement of the US payrolls report due to the US government shutdown. ISM Services disappointed on the headline and fell to 50.0 (exp. 51.7, prev. 52.0) and beneath the bottom end of the forecast range. Business activity and new orders tumbled, with the latter into contractionary territory, while employment and prices paid both ticked incrementally higher.
• SPX +0.01% at 6,716, NDX -0.43% at 24,786, DJI +0.51% at 46,758, RUT +0.72% at 2,476.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US Republican Senator Moreno said on Friday that President Trump is considering significant tariff relief for US auto production.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum said she will present advances in made-in-Mexico tech EV, semiconductors, satellite and drone projects in the coming weeks, while she is confident they will reach favourable agreements with the US and all nations worldwide regarding trade relations.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said Democrats are causing the shutdown and possible layoffs, while NEC Director Hassett separately commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.
• US House Republican leaders told members that they plan to stay away from Washington, D.C. during the government shutdown but are ready to get back to work as soon as US Senate Minority Leader Schumer and Senate Democrats reopen the government.
• US President Trump authorised the deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Illinois despite the objections of state officials, including Governor Pritzker.
• US judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops in Portland, Oregon. It was also reported that California Governor Newsom said he will sue the Trump administration for sending California National Guard personnel to Oregon.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said on Friday that it was less than ideal not to get the jobs report, but added that he does not focus on a single report when deciding monetary policy and looks across an array of data to assess the economy. Furthermore, he said higher tariffs are showing through to higher inflation for some goods and expects that the effects of tariffs on inflation, employment, and economic activity will further show through in the coming months.
• Fed Governor Miran said on Friday that he hopes they'll have the needed data by the October FOMC meeting, according to Fox.
• Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said on Friday that tariffs have been contributing to inflation and is worried about non-housing services inflation that's been elevated and stuck there. Logan added there are also upside risks to goods prices even after the tariff effect fades and noted risks that tariff effects are more prolonged raise the risk of a rise in long-term inflation expectations.
• COVID-19 Stratus variant replaced the Nimbus variant as the most prevalent strain across the US, with the CDC suggesting some regions of the country are experiencing “very high” COVID-19 activity including Nevada, Utah, Connecticut and Delaware.
• Stellantis (STLA) is planning to invest about USD 10bln in the US, according to Bloomberg.

COMMODITIES

• Eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by 137k bpd in November and the group cited a steady economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, while they will meet next on November 2nd.
• Qatar set November marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.00/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.05/bbl.
• Shell (SHEL LN) said US President Trump’s attacks on wind projects harm investment in the US and the decision to halt fully permitted offshore wind energy projects is very damaging to investment, according to FT.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel and Hamas are set to begin mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt after US President Trump hailed Hamas’s offer to release all hostages, according to Bloomberg.
• Israeli government spokeswoman confirmed negotiations for the release of hostages are expected to begin on Monday and stated there is no ceasefire in place in Gaza, but there has been a temporary halt in certain bombings, while she added the military can continue to act in Gaza for defensive purposes.
• Israeli military spokesperson issued a warning for residents of Gaza City on Saturday morning and called on them to avoid returning north, while the spokesperson added that Gaza City remains a dangerous combat zone. It was separately reported by an Al Arabiya correspondent that violent explosions were heard in the Gaza Strip on Sunday.
• US President Trump posted that after negotiations, Israel has agreed to an initial withdrawal line which has been shown to, and shared with Hamas, while he added that when Hamas confirms, a ceasefire will be immediately effective and a hostages and prisoner exchange will begin.
• US President told CNN that Hamas will face ‘complete obliteration’ if it refuses to cede power in Gaza and noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu is on board with ending the bombing in Gaza.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said that meetings are taking place on the Israel-Hamas deal and that Hamas agreed in principle to what happens after the war, while he responded ‘not yet’ and that some work remains to be done when asked if this is the end of the war in Gaza. Rubio suggested the second phase of discussing disarmament and demobilisation will be difficult and stated they will know very quickly if Hamas is serious. Furthermore, he said they are the closest they have been in a very long time to having no hostages held by Hamas, but added that no one can say it is a 100% guarantee.
• Hamas handed over its response to US President Trump's Gaza plan to mediators on Friday and said it agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or bodies, under US President Trump's Gaza proposal, while it affirmed its readiness to immediately engage in negotiations through mediators to discuss the details of this matter and reiterated its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats. However, it was also reported that a senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera that handing over hostages held in Gaza within 72 hours is 'theoretical and unrealistic'.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said Russian President Putin’s offer last month to voluntarily maintain limits on deployed nuclear weapons sounds like a good idea.
• Russian President Putin warned that the possible supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine will ruin the Russia-US relationship.
• Russia conducted a massive airstrike against targets across Ukraine using missiles and drones which killed at least five people and injured several others, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Kuzminovka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises, as well as gas and energy infrastructure facilities.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Sunday morning that Russia launched over 50 missiles and almost 500 drones in an overnight attack on Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Energy Minister said the Russian overnight air attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Chernihiv regions. It was also reported that a Russian strike hit a passenger train in Ukraine’s Sumy region, causing casualties.

OTHER

• US President Trump’s administration directed US diplomats to lobby against a UN resolution calling for Washington to lift its embargo on Cuba, while the US will tell countries that Cuba is actively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a diplomatic cable cited by Reuters.
• North Korean leader Kim said Pyongyang allocated strategic assets to respond to the buildup of US military forces in Korea, while he also said they will develop additional military measures, according to KCNA.
• US Defense Secretary Hegseth said he has every authorisation needed for Caribbean strikes against vessels allegedly carrying illegal drugs off the coast of Venezuela.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japan’s ruling LDP elected Sanae Takaichi as its leader, who is set to become Japan’s first female PM.
• Japan’s newly elected LDP President Takaichi said they need speedy support for weak small- and medium-sized companies to help with wage growth, while she added that support is also needed for the farm sector, and urgent help is needed for the medical and nursing care sectors. Takaichi said one policy option is to increase subsidies to local governments and that she wants to submit a bill to abolish the extra gasoline tax and lower diesel fuel costs during the next parliament. Takaichi also said she won’t rule out lowering the consumption tax as an option and that they will honour the bilateral agreement made with the US. Furthermore, she noted that the government and BoJ need to be aligned on economic policy, while she added they will closely communicate with the BoJ until demand-led economic growth is achieved and wants to carefully consider whether the current government-BoJ accord is most appropriate.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Italy and hold the 12th joint meeting of the China-Italy government committee and will visit Switzerland for a 4th round of the China-Switzerland foreign ministers-level strategic dialogue.
• NVIDIA’s (NVDA) major server production partner Hon Hai (2317 TT) reported quarterly sales rose 11% to TWD 2.06tln which reportedly signals healthy demand for AI infrastructure, according to Bloomberg.
• Indonesian President Prabowo told the military to guard the country’s vast natural resources from foreign entities and claimed such groups have been “stealing” and “smuggling” the nation’s assets, according to Bloomberg.
• Indonesia revoked its TikTok licence suspension after the social media platform submitted data that the Indonesian government requested, according to Bloomberg.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Roland Lescure is set to be named the new French Finance Minister and Bruno Le Maire is set to be appointed as the new French Defence Minister, according to BFM Television.
• French National Rally leader Bardella said the new PM Lecornu cabinet fails to break with the past, while a French socialist party official said the party will vote against the new government if there is no change in policies.
• Czech billionaire Andrej Babis’s populist ANO party won the parliamentary election, although it failed to achieve an overall majority with just under 35% of the vote to win 80 seats in the 200-seat lower house, while he is seeking an agreement with two smaller groups, which are the populist Motorists and the anti-migration Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD).