Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks closed in the green on Friday and were buoyed by a soft US CPI report, which did little to alter money market pricing into the upcoming Fed meeting in the week ahead, whereby a 25-bps cut is a near certainty. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Technology and Communications outperforming, although Energy lagged, while participants also await a deluge of key earnings, with 5 out of the Mag-7 reporting.
• US President Trump announced to immediately raise tariffs on Canada by another 10% because of the fraudulent ad misrepresenting Ronald Reagan’s view on tariffs.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is ready to make a trade deal and that they have a framework for Trump-Xi talks, while he added that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will make the final decisions. Bessent separately commented that the tariffs increase on China was averted and that China agreed to delay a new rare earths export licensing regime for a year.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Services PPI, Chinese Industrial Profits, Thai Trade Data, Holiday Closure in New Zealand.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• UK clocks moved back an hour during the weekend and reverted to GMT, which means there will just be a 4-hour time difference between London and New York for the week ahead until US clocks change next Sunday.
• Highlights include Japanese Services PPI, Chinese Industrial Profits, Thai Trade Data, Holiday Closure in New Zealand.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks closed in the green on Friday and were buoyed by a soft US CPI report, which did little to alter money market pricing into the upcoming Fed meeting in the week ahead, whereby a 25-bps cut is a near certainty. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Technology and Communications outperforming, although Energy lagged, while participants also await a deluge of key earnings, with 5 out of the Mag-7 reporting.
• SPX +0.79% at 6,792, NDX +1.04% at 25,358, DJI +1.01% at 47,207, RUT +1.24% at 2,513.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump announced to immediately raise tariffs on Canada by another 10% because of the fraudulent ad misrepresenting Ronald Reagan’s view on tariffs.
• US President Trump said he expects a very fair meeting with Chinese President Xi and he is optimistic about a China deal, while he said he will do some good business with Chinese President Xi and that he has a lot to talk about with Xi.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is ready to make a trade deal and that they have a framework for Trump-Xi talks, while he added that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will make the final decisions. Bessent separately commented that the tariffs increase on China was averted and that China agreed to delay a new rare earths export licensing regime for a year. Bessent also stated that he expects the Chinese to be making substantial purchases of US soybeans again soon and that US soybean farmers will feel good about coming soybean seasons for several years when the Trump-Xi trade deal is announced, as well as noted that the details of the TikTok deal are ironed out with Trump and Xi able to consummate that transaction in South Korea on Thursday.
• China’s top trade negotiator Li said they reached a consensus with the US and talked about tariffs and export controls, while he added they will enhance communication with the US and talked about 301 port fees, trade expansion and fentanyl.
• Chinese Vice Premier He said they should jointly implement the consensus reached with the US, while he added that China and the US should find ways to properly address each other’s concerns through equal dialogue and consultation.
• USTR said on Friday that it initiated a trade investigation of China's implementation of the Phase One agreement with the US. It was also reported that China’s embassy to the US said regarding the USTR investigation that China opposes false accusations related to investigation measures and that US actions have done serious damage to US-China ties as well as economic and trade relations, while it urged the US to promptly correct wrong practices.
• US and Vietnam announced a framework for an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade, while the deal will provide both countries’ exporters unprecedented access to each other’s markets. The joint statement noted that the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam but will identify products and potential tariff adjustments for aligned partners to receive a 0% reciprocal tariff rate.
• US and Thailand joint statement noted that the US will maintain a 19% tariff on Thailand, but will identify products and potential tariff adjustments for aligned partners to receive a 0% reciprocal tariff rate.
• US and Cambodia joint statement noted that Cambodia commits to eliminate tariffs on 100% of US industrial goods and US foods and agricultural products exported to Cambodia.
• US and Malaysia joint statement noted that Malaysia has committed to provide significant preferential market access for US industrial goods exports and committed to address non-tariff barriers that affect bilateral trade in priority industrial areas.
• US President Trump said that they are going to make a deal with Brazil, while he also commented that they may reduce Brazil tariffs and are pretty close on a South Korean deal.
• Brazil’s Foreign Minister Vieira said US President Trump and Brazilian President Lula had a happy conversation and the meeting was positive, while he stated that Trump gave the instruction to start a bilateral negotiation process. Furthermore, he said they will have conversations targeting a tariffs suspension, and the first step of negotiations was with USTR Greer, Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Secretary of State Rubio on Sunday.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said overall inflation has come down since President Trump took office and he is confident that inflation will fall further towards the Fed’s 2% target, while Bessent also said that the government shutdown is starting to eat into the muscle of the US economy.
• US Transportation Secretary Duffy warned that travellers will face more flight delays and cancellations in the coming weeks amid the continuing shutdown, according to Bloomberg.
• Fed proposed changes to boost bank stress test transparency on Friday, with the Fed to disclose and solicit feedback on stress test models and scenarios for the first time under the new proposal. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said the changes would improve bank capital planning, while Fed's Barr objected to the proposed changes and warned that it would weaken the test and lower bank capital.
• European rating agency Scope downgraded the US credit ratings from AA to AA-; outlook revised to stable from negative.

COMMODITIES

• At least 5 workers were seriously injured in an oil pipeline fire in Iraq’s Zubair oilfield, while the fire has not affected production from the oilfield, which stands at 400k bpd.
• TotalEnergies (TTE FP) is ready to restart the USD 20bln Mozambique LNG project four years after it was halted due to a terrorist attack, according to FT.
• White House announced a proclamation on regulatory relief for certain stationary sources to promote American mineral security, while the proclamation noted that certain stationary sources are exempt from compliance with the copper rule for two years.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s military said it conducted a targeted strike in central Gaza.
• US President Trump said on Saturday that Hamas must start returning the bodies of hostages and that they will be closely watching over the next 48 hours.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said the US team is working on a possible UN resolution or international agreement to authorise a multinational force in Gaza.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he won’t meet with Russian President Putin until he thinks they have a peace plan.
• Kremlin said Russian armed forces will respond harshly in the event of strikes deep inside of Russia. It also stated that it is wrong to talk about the cancellation of the Putin-Trump summit and there is an understanding between Russia and the US that it would not be good to delay the meeting, according to RIA.
• Russian President Putin said Russian forces conducted training live launches of all three components of the strategic nuclear forces drill, while the strategic nuclear forces drill confirmed the reliability of Russia’s nuclear shield.
• Russia’s General Staff of the Armed Forces head Gerasimov said Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, while he also stated that a successful test of the Burevestnik missile with a nuclear power unit was conducted on October 21st, according to Interfax.
• Russian President Putin's special envoy Dmitriev said on Friday that Russia-US dialogue is vital for the world and must continue with full understanding of Russia's position and respect for its national interests. Dmitriev said dialogue between Russia and the US is continuing despite recent 'unfriendly steps' from Washington, and such dialogue is only possible if Russia's interests are treated with respect, while he added that various forces, mainly the UK and Europeans, are trying to derail direct dialogue between Putin and Trump.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, the shadow fleet and oil terminals on Friday.
• UK PM Starmer said on Friday that the coalition of the willing is determined to go further than ever to ratchet up pressure on Russian President Putin, while he stated the meeting was clear that work on using frozen Russian assets needs to come to fruition quickly.

OTHER

• US President Trump responded we will see, when asked about strikes in Venezuela. Trump also commented that he has a lot of respect for Taiwan, while he is not sure if he will meet with North Korean leader Kim during his Asia trip, but added that he likes Kim personally.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Taiwan should not be concerned about US-China talks, while he added the US is not going to walk away from Taiwan in return for trade benefits with China.
• Thailand and Cambodia signed a peace deal on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, according to Nikkei.
• North Korea’s Foreign Minister is to visit Russia on October 26th-28th.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Almost two dozen world leaders are visiting the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur for the 47th ASEAN summit, which takes place from Sunday to Tuesday.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK was reported on Friday to be considering shorter IPO times to boost UK listings, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Escriva said the ECB is communicating in its statements after each meeting that inflation is truly at the target of 2% and they think it is a good time to look ahead and consider the current level of interest rates appropriate.
• Moody’s maintained France’s rating at Aa3, but revised the outlook to negative from stable.