Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stocks finished with mild gains on Friday but with the upside capped amid thin newsflow while participants also digested several data releases including import/export prices which surprisingly rose, albeit marginally, while housing data and UoM disappointed.
• Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1: Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that German Chancellor Merz said the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland are to speak with US President Trump before his call with Russian President Putin on Monday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand PPI, Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Thai GDP, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index.

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LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include New Zealand PPI, Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales, Thai GDP, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

• US stocks finished with mild gains on Friday but with the upside capped amid thin newsflow while participants also digested several data releases including import/export prices which surprisingly rose, albeit marginally, while housing data and UoM disappointed.
• SPX +0.70% at 5,958, NDX +0.43% at 21,428, DJI +0.78% at 42,655, RUT +0.89% at 2,113.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• US President Trump said he would be willing to travel to China to speak with Chinese President Xi regarding foreign policy and economic issues.
• US President Trump said Walmart (WMT) should stop trying to blame tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain, while he added that between Walmart and China, they should “eat the tariffs” and not charge valued customers anything.
• US VP Vance said Europe is an important ally of the US but noted there are disagreements on trade, while he hoped the Sunday meeting in Rome with European Commission President Von der Leyen would lead to long-term trade negotiations and trade advantages.
• US VP Vance discussed with Canadian PM Carney the shared interests and goals of the US and Canada including fair trade policies and the continued lasting relationship between the two countries.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said regarding new tariff rates that countries are coming up with very good proposals with few exceptions and the timing of deals depends on whether countries are negotiating in good faith, while he thinks they will do a lot of regional deals. Furthermore, he said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US-China trade truce and China’s prior defiant stance in negotiating with the US is said to have convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own negotiations with the trump administration, according to Bloomberg.
• Australian PM Albanese said he is "up for a deal" with Europe on free trade following years of trade discussions, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Trump said it is almost everyone’s consensus that the Fed should cut rates sooner rather than later, while he added that Fed Chair Powell “will probably blow it again”.
• Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he doesn’t put much credence in Moody’s when asked about the US credit downgrade and thinks Moody’s is a lagging indicator, while he said the US will grow GDP faster than debt and they are determined to bringing spending down and growing the US economy, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• Kentucky Governor announced that at least 14 died in the wake of severe storms and the death toll is expected to increase.
• FBI said a bomb explosion outside a fertility clinic on Saturday, which killed one person and injured four others, was an “intentional act of terrorism”, and it later identified the suspect who was said to have ‘nihilistic’ views and attempted to stream the bombing.

GLOBAL NEWS

• Exit polls showed pre-EU centrist Nicusor Dan is on course to win in the Romanian Presidential Election with 54% of the vote vs 45% for far-right leader George Simion, according to FT.

COMMODITIES

• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia detained a Liberia-flagged oil tanker after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port.
• Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry signed an agreement with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to amend and extend the Block 53 exploration and production sharing agreement.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli airstrikes killed at least 100 in Gaza as negotiators sought a ceasefire, while Israel’s military said it began a wide ground operation in northern and southern Gaza.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel will allow the entry of a basic quantity of food into Gaza to prevent a hunger crisis.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Gaza talks in Doha now include ending the war or a truce and hostage deal, while it added that the end of the war must include Gaza demilitarisation, Hamas exile and the release of all hostages. However, a senior Israeli official said there was little progress in Gaza talks that include ending the war.
• Hamas confirmed a new round of ceasefire talks with Israel in Doha and said both sides are discussing all issues without preconditions, according to an official cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes last week killed the de facto commander of Hamas in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, according to reports by Israeli press on Sunday.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed to target Israel’s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile, although Israel’s military said it successfully intercepted the missile from Yemen, while Houthis announced on Sunday evening that it planned to target Israeli airports in the coming few hours.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian questioned whether they should believe US President Trump, who speaks of peace and threatens Iran at the same time, while he added that Tehran will continue nuclear talks with the US but is not afraid of threats.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said US President Trump’s comments during his regional visit are an embarrassment and that the US must and will leave the region, while he also commented that Israel is a dangerous and deadly cancerous tumour which must be uprooted.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that German Chancellor Merz said the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland are to speak with US President Trump before his call with Russian President Putin on Monday.
• US President Trump said he thinks that they will make a deal with Russian President Putin and said he will use leverage against Putin if he has to, while he added that they have to meet and thinks they will probably schedule it, according to Fox News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and welcomed the prisoner exchange agreement reached, while Rubio emphasised President Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the violence. Furthermore, Lavrov discussed with Rubio further contacts between Russia and the US, while Lavrov noted the positive role of the US in the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said preparations are underway for a Putin-Trump conversation, while it stated that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could happen but only if certain agreements are reached.
• Russian negotiators at Istanbul talks demanded that Ukraine withdraw troops from all Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow before a ceasefire can start, while they also demanded international recognition that five Ukrainian regions are Russian, neutrality for Ukraine, and no reparations, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelined of the Pope’s inauguration.
• Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a long-lasting drone attack. It was also reported that Ukrainian military intelligence agency said Russia plans to conduct ‘training and combat’ launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Sunday to intimidate Ukraine and the West.

OTHER

• Turkish President Erdogan said it is possible to say that US sanctions on the Turkish defence sector have eased somewhat, while he added that NATO allies US and Turkey should not have restrictions in the defence sector.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• South Korean presidential front-runner Lee said ties with Russia and China are also important, while he also stated that South Korea should not go all in on the alliance with the US and there is no need to rush a trade agreement with the US.
• US White House and Congressional officials reportedly scrutinised in recent months Apple’s (AAPL) plan to strike a deal to make Alibaba’s (9988 HK) AI available on iPhones in China.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”, although some sticking points were said to remain with talks ‘going down to the wire‘, according to FT.
• ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while he currently sees no case for a half-point cut in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he said the Euro area may be exposed to a negative economic shock in the short term which may be followed by a positive shock in 2026 and 2027, according to FT.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now, while she commented it is to be seen what will happen regarding a June cut and noted that declining energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could reverse in the medium term.
• Portugal’s ruling centre-right AD coalition is expected to remain the largest political party with 35% of the votes won so far, while the far-right Chega party is in second place with 23.6% of votes and the Socialist Party had 22.8% of the votes so far.
• Portugal will appeal to the European Commission to pressure France over cross-border electricity links after a blackout last month, according to FT.
• Polish pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski was narrowly ahead in Poland’s first round presidential vote and will enter a run-off with right-wing rival Nawrocki.
• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB: Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.