Weekend News Roundup - Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Market Open

• US stock indexes closed the final session of the week in the green, as did all sectors, with Consumer Discretionary and Materials the outperformers. The key risk event on Friday was the soft US payrolls report, as the headline underwhelmed, and the unemployment rate rose, albeit as did the participation rate. Following the release, there was a notable dovish reaction with upside in US equity futures, US Treasuries, and spot gold, accompanied by downside in the Dollar. However, since the data print, the moves had pared into the weekend, where participants await Middle East updates. In the energy complex, which sparked initial downside, French President Macron confirmed that diesel and crude stocks would be released over 4 months, and G7 leaders confirmed the release of up to 100mln barrels of oil and diesel stocks.
• US President Trump said that he will be making a decision on Iran, while he added Iran has been decimated, so the only question is if it will be the easy way or the hard way.
• Major OPEC+ producers agreed to maintain oil production quotas at current levels for November, according to delegates.
• Looking ahead, highlights include Australian Final Services PMI & MI Inflation Gauge, Japanese Final Services PMI, Holiday Closures in Mainland China & South Korea, Australian Clocks Moved Forward 1 hour on Sunday.

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include Australian Final Services PMI & MI Inflation Gauge, Japanese Final Services PMI, Holiday Closures in Mainland China & South Korea, Australian Clocks Moved Forward 1 hour on Sunday.
• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

• US President Trump said that he will be making a decision on Iran, while he added Iran has been decimated, so the only question is if it will be the easy way or the hard way.
• US President Trump's cabinet members and top security officials met secretly at Camp David on Friday to discuss the next steps for conflicts in Iran and Yemen, according to Axios.
• US removed all its B-1 bombers from the UK's Fairford air base amid security concerns.
• Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi stated that Iran is serious and firm in both defending itself and advancing diplomacy, while he emphasised that if the enemies once again take the path of military confrontation, they will face a stronger response than in the past, but noted Iran remains ready to achieve a just and honourable solution through diplomacy.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry senior official said Iran is reviewing Washington’s response to the 7-day proposal sent through intermediaries, as other officials offered differing assessments of whether further negotiations with the US were needed, according to Iran International.
• IRGC's Commander-in-Chief Advisory Group head Fadavi warned that if the US launched a ground attack, Iran will target vessels, bases and any place belonging to the US, while he also stated that Iran has not even wasted a day to strengthen its military capability.
• Israel's Chief of General Staff Zamir chaired a senior commanders meeting, where it was stated that future military strategy will prioritise preventing sudden war and include a comprehensive expansion of forces.
• Yemen Houthis attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh with missiles and drones.
• Saudi-backed Yemeni forces began an operation to reclaim areas held by the Houthis.
• UKMTO received reports of an incident 60 nautical miles south of Yemen's Mocha port, in which a tanker reported multiple explosions nearby, although the crew was reported to be safe and no environmental impact was observed. UKMTO reported earlier on Sunday that it received a report that a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room.

US TRADE

• US stock indexes closed the final session of the week in the green, as did all sectors, with Consumer Discretionary and Materials the outperformers. The key risk event on Friday was the soft US payrolls report, as the headline underwhelmed, and the unemployment rate rose, albeit as did the participation rate. Following the release, there was a notable dovish reaction with upside in US equity futures, US Treasuries, and spot gold, accompanied by downside in the Dollar. However, since the data print, the moves had pared into the weekend, where participants await Middle East updates. In the energy complex, which sparked initial downside, French President Macron confirmed that diesel and crude stocks would be released over 4 months, and G7 leaders confirmed the release of up to 100mln barrels of oil and diesel stocks.
• SPX +0.73% at 7,723, NDX +1.00% at 30,808, DJI +0.49% at 51,182, RUT +0.94% at 2,833.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

• US President Trump said on Friday that they didn't jump the gun on the Alaska pipeline and warned if Korea doesn't do the pipeline, they will charge South Korea more.
• US will receive its first potash shipment from Belarus in four years as relations thaw, according to FT.
• China launched an anti-dumping probe into European chemical exports in a tit-for-tat following three similar investigations launched by the EU last week, according to FT.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that the labour market is steady and the inflation side of the Fed's job is more important, while he stated there is plenty of room for anything on the table as far as a rate hike or pause. Furthermore, he is open to seeing if they get evidence they are heading back to 2% inflation and won't rule out any decision at the next rate meeting.
• US President Trump posted that his administration will, immediately, begin sending checks of nearly USD 100 to over 20mln seniors to help pay for Medicare Part B premiums, which they have already reduced by significant amounts.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent downplayed concerns over the recent rise in yields, saying it was in line with global trends, while also playing down concerns about an AI bubble. He criticised prominent AI figures' warnings about existential risks posed by AI as alarmist and unhelpful, and called on the industry to police itself and develop solutions.
• White House National Economic Council Director Hassett called on former Fed Chair Powell to leave the Fed's board following an internal report that cited management failures in the renovation of the central bank's headquarters.
• White House AI task force led by National Intelligence Director Clayton, whom President Trump named as his AI czar, will provide a report assessing the risks posed by AI and the federal government's responsibilities regarding the technology.
• US and Mexico have jointly deployed military personnel in a border area in Texas as part of operations, according to the Mexican government.

DATA RECAP

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep) 29K vs. Exp. 90K (Prev. 133K); 2-month net revisions: -60k (prev. +55k)
• US Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
• US Average Hourly Earnings (Sep YY) 3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)

FX

• Brazilian President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were neck-and-neck as Brazilians headed to the polls in the first round of the presidential race on Sunday.

COMMODITIES

• Major OPEC+ producers agreed to maintain oil production quotas at current levels for November, according to delegates.
• G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100mln barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves, while pledging to refrain from energy export restrictions following pressure from US President Trump.
• US President Trump said on Friday that they will not do a diesel export ban, while he added that Europe is making a major contribution, and so is the US. Trump separately commented that the US will soon be filling up its strategic petroleum reserve.
• Iraq said on Saturday that it transported 2mln bbls of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Oil Minister Paknejad resigned, while Deputy Oil Minister and Head of National Iranian Oil Company Hamid Bovard was appointed as Acting Oil Minister.

GEOPOLITICAL

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine will strike Russian refineries in response to Moscow's "new doctrine" of airstrikes.
• Russia said it would intensify attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, while the Russian Foreign Ministry separately warned that diplomats and foreign officials in Kyiv were in mortal danger.
• Russia said it struck a cargo vessel off Odessa and downed 559 drones.
• US President Trump's administration's talks with Russia on ending the Ukraine war now include a potential multibillion-dollar oil deal benefitting Middle Eastern business executives with ties to US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner, according to NYT.
• German Chancellor Merz warned of Russia's threat to the West and reiterated Germany's support for Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv. He also announced a fresh EUR 1.35bln in military aid for Ukraine and said Germany would not be intimidated into withdrawing its support.
• Moldova said several Russian attack drones had violated its airspace before exploding.

OTHER

• North Korean leader Kim oversaw the launch of an intermediate-range strategic missile using a hypersonic weapons system, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that South Korea's Blue House convened a national security council meeting regarding the North Korea missile launch.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the FX trend has changed somewhat since the joint FX intervention was announced, while she added that US Treasury Secretary Bessent has questioned whether the Japanese government has been sending a unified message to the markets.
• SoftBank (9984 JT) CEO Masayoshi Son said even he is worried about AI safety risks, as machines rapidly gain more capabilities.
• South Korean regulators urged financial institutions to promptly complete internal security inspections and report the results to authorities following a series of cyber attacks that resulted in data breaches.
• Temu’s UK sales more than doubled to USD 171mln last year, as the Chinese ecommerce company exploited a tax loophole that exempts its small parcel imports from customs duty.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK Conservative Party leader Badenoch is using the party's annual convention to call for the abolition of inheritance tax and an expansion of childcare support to higher earners.
• German Chancellor Merz is set to meet former ECB members de Cos and Knot, who are frontrunners to succeed ECB President Lagarde, according to people familiar with the matter
• France's Education Minister said that as many as 500 schools could be partially or fully closed on Monday following clashes between riot police and student protesters.
• Latvian Prime Minister Kulbergs's party won a record number of seats in the parliamentary elections and is on track to secure 42 seats in the 100-member parliament with 35.3% of the vote.