This Is What It Looks Like When Doves Cry...

A busy week that, at the highest level, saw two major narratives either tweaked or outright 'reset' in the last few days, according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott:

• The first “reset” was of the AI hierarchy chess board this week with Google > OpenAI, with the Gemini 3 TPU breakthrough pulling us into a new “Deepseek Moment” and freaking-out the prior orthodoxy, which centered around OpenAI (see The Information article last night: “OpenAI CEO Braces For Possible “Economic Headwinds” in “Catching Up” to a Resurgent Google”).

• The second major “reset”...was seemingly tied to the market’s intepretation of the (stale) September Employment release - in particular, the (higher) U-Rate data - as further indicating potential “Fed Policy Error” IF the did indeed continue majority holding their recently signalled “No Dec Cut” views…effectively an attempted “Tantrum” by the market (and why we’ve heard so many “Dec 2018” analogs recently) to get Dec odds back tilted to “Cut” in short-order.