Who's The Fool? Trump-Talk Kicks Off April With Big-Tech & Bullion Bid, Crude Cracks

Tl;dr: New month, new quarter yet same hyperbolic back-and-forth between Trump and Iran ahead of a potential ceasefire (and tonight's must-watch Trump Address) may leave a lot of people feeling like a fool. Oil was lower overall but not aggressively so. Stocks relished the hope of a ceasefire (led by big-tech) but activity was low, bonds chopped sideways. A weaker dollar supported bullion, but bitcoin gave up its early gains.

US Macro data was mostly positive with strong retail sales, resilience in Manufacturing (ISM), solid jobs (ADP), but a surge in inflation (ISM Prices Paid) - and that was before the war. The bottom line is that while 'hard' data is trend lower (popped a smidge today), it's the 'soft' survey data that is dramatically outperforming (surprisingly). Simply put, 'hope' is peaking here from the trough of war...

Oil