Who's Winning China's Sportswear Battle? UBS Say It's Not Nike

Greater China accounts for about 13% of Nike's revenue and 15% of Adidas', making the world's second-largest economy a major competitive battleground for both clothing brands. 

A new UBS note highlights a widening divergence, with Adidas gaining market share as Nike's turnaround struggles to gain solid traction.

UBS retail analyst Jay Sole wrote Monday that Adidas continues to outperform Nike in China, citing an industry expert who highlighted Adidas's stronger locally tailored products and marketing. Nike, meanwhile, faces weaker product momentum woes, inventory challenges and disruption from changes to its distribution strategy. 

Sole's conversation with the industry expert and other findings raise further questions about Nike management's execution and its ability to refocus the business on product innovation and consumer demand after years of prioritizing woke cultural wars that only ended up with S&P Dow Jones Indices booting the company out of the S&P100 later this month. 

Here's more color on Sole's conversation: 

China athletic wear industry market conditions are have softened: 

We hosted a call on September 4th with an industry expert to provide insight around how athletic wear sales are trending in China. The expert believes overall industry conditions have become more challenging over the last several months, with demand slowing versus earlier in the year. While consumer interest in athletic wear remains healthy, shoppers are becoming increasingly value conscious amid broader macroeconomic pressures. Inventory levels across the industry remain manageable, though conditions vary significantly by brand. adidas continues to outperform and gain market share, while Nike remains under pressure due to ongoing channel restructuring, inventory challenges, and weaker product momentum. Domestic brands and emerging running brands are also gaining traction.

Consumers remain engaged but are becoming more value-focused: 

The expert believes Chinese consumers remain interested in sportswear, fitness, and active lifestyles. However, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to influence purchasing behavior. Rather than exiting the category, consumers are becoming more selective and increasingly focused on affordability and value. Many shoppers are trading down to lower-priced products or gravitating toward brands that offer stronger perceived value. This environment appears to favor brands with compelling pricing, strong local relevance, and differentiated product offerings.

Nike: Challenges persist and a full recovery likely takes more time: 

The expert noted Nike and Jordan have been the weakest-performing major global sportswear brands in China recently. The expert believes sales trends deteriorated through the summer, with declines remaining in the -DD% range and further decelerating into September MTD. According to the expert, Nike's challenges are largely idiosyncratic. Nike has less new product innovation in the performance side of this business y/y. At the same time, the company has reduced distributor participation in ecommerce channels, scaled back promotional support, and focused on improving pricing integrity. While these actions may improve the long-term health of the business, they are adding to near-term sales pressure. Inventory levels remain somewhat elevated, though the expert noted conditions improved between July and August. Looking ahead, Nike's recovery is expected to take time and will likely depend on improved product innovation, cleaner inventory levels, and successful execution of Nike's revised distribution strategy, in the expert's view.

Adidas: No signs of a slowdown, confidence in the 2027 outlook remains intact:

After beginning Q3 with high-single-digit growth, trading momentum strengthened considerably in August and September, with growth accelerating into the high teens. According to the expert, this performance has been driven by the success of the company's local-for-local product strategy, supported by effective and locally relevant marketing initiatives. While inventory levels remain somewhat higher, they are viewed as manageable, with no signs of increased discounting or promotional activity. Looking ahead, experts expect demand trends to remain healthy through the end of the year, with no indications of a slowdown. Early indications for 2027 are also constructive, with order books pointing to high-single-digit growth

Looking ahead: Industry growth likely remains modest while share shifts expected to continue:

The outlook for China's athletic wear market remains constructive but increasingly competitive. The expert expects industry growth to remain modest and roughly in line with broader economic growth. Market performance has become more polarized, with stronger brands continuing to gain share while weaker brands face mounting pressure. adidas appears positioned to continue gaining market share, supported by healthy inventories, strong product acceptance, and positive distributor sentiment. Nike is expected to remain under pressure as channel restructuring efforts continue and distributors work through elevated inventory levels. Beyond the major global brands, the expert highlighted continued strength from domestic players such as Anta, as well as international running-focused brands including On, ASICS, and Salomon. Overall, success in the market is increasingly tied to localization, product relevance, and the ability to deliver compelling value to consumers.

Nike shares have plunged nearly 40% this year through Monday's close, leaving the stock deep in a bear market.

Adidas has fallen roughly 12%, outperforming its US peer so far this year.