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Race, Crime, And The 2024 Election

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Friday, May 12, 2023 - 8:10
Daniel Penny subduing repeat felon Jordan Neely.
Daniel Penny subduing repeat felon Jordan Neely. 

A Week That Will Impinge On The 2024 Election

What has happened so far this week has likely altered the trajectory of the 2024 election. Let's break it down, and then I have a regional bank trade to share with you afterwards. 

Alvin Bragg To Prosecute Daniel Penny

Let's get the worst news out of the way first. As you may recall, when Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg charged Donald Trump in a politically motivated prosecution last month, I pointed out this was an example of anarcho-tyranny: the same prosecutor who lets criminals walk free throws the book at innocent men (including those who defended themselves against violent criminals). 

Bragg was back in the news this week, bringing manslaughter charges against Daniel Penny, the former Marine and Good Samaritan who restrained repeat violent felon Jordan Neely, who was menacing subway riders at the time. 

I hope Trump does what I suggested in that tweet and finances Penny's defense, but in the meantime, if you want to help Penny out, you can use the link above. 

The Trump Rape Trial 

As you probably know, Trump was found liable of "sexually abusing" author E. Jean Carroll in a civil trial in New York, and you probably have your suspicions about the legal process here. Most likely, you weren't suspicious enough. Independent journalist Michael Tracey went through the details of the verdict, and it was a complete farce. 

This trial was one of the subjects that came up in Trump's CNN town hall. 

The Trump Town Hall 

In a first, Rick Wilson of the #NeverTrump grift The Lincoln Project said something I agree with: "Ron DeSantis is the most over-priced stock in American politics". DeSantis is now trailing Trump by an average of 31 points in national polls, and by 8 points in his home state of Florida, according to the most recent poll. 

And CNN's Kaitlan Collins has had a hand in both DeSantis's decline and Trump's further ascent, which will inevitably appear in the next round of polls. 

Last month, Collins shared this cringe-inducing video of DeSantis displaying off-putting mannerisms while avoiding a question about the Republican primary,

For all of DeSantis's policy wins in Florida, that brief clip made clear that when it comes to live TV news, he's been hitting homers against minor league pitching. 

In contrast, Trump's masterful handling of Kaitlan Collins in CNN's town hall this week showed Trump is likely to dominate any live debate with DeSantis.

But Trump showed more than that. In perhaps the most astute analysis of Trump's town hall performance, Bennett's Phylactery pointed out that Trump appeared utterly reasonable. 

Hence all the recriminations on the Left after the CNN town hall. They've spent years making up all kinds of lies about Trump, but when you put him on live TV in front of voters, they see who Trump really is: a reasonable man trying to get a better deal for them. 

The Reality Of Race And Crime In America

During the CNN town hall, Trump brought up the killing of Ashli Babbitt by Capitol Police lieutenant Michael Byrd. 

Michael Byrd, as it happens, is black, and apparently a beneficiary of affirmative action given his past incompetence (for example, leaving his gun unattended in a public restroom). 

By this point, you'd have to be willfully blind to not see the patterns here. African Americans commit crimes at wildly disproportionate rates compared to other groups, and if one of them dies during the commission of a crime, prosecutors (often black) will thrown the book at whoever is involved, whether it's a cop, as in the case of Derek Chauvin, who used a department-approved restraint method on repeat felon George Floyd, or Daniel Penny, the Good Samaritan who restrained repeat felon Jordan Neely. 

In contrast, the black cop who killed an unarmed woman in the Capitol wasn't even charged. 

As I suggested to former Trump White House staffer Darren Beattie, this is a winning issue Trump should run on. 

The Border Patrol Calls Out The Biden Administration

A late addition to an eventful week. Has a federal employee union ever accused an incumbent administration of corruption before? 

I assume that's in reference to this week's news that Biden's Department of Homeland Security has been coordinating with Mexico to let more illegal aliens into the U.S.

As I wrote elsewhere, the further we get from Watergate, the more that was obviously a deep state op to remove a popular President. This DHS business might be the 10th recent scandal that was worse than Watergate. 

Let's wrap this up on a positive note with that regional bank trade I alluded to above.

Playing With The House's Money

In a trade alert at the beginning of this month ("Betting on Another Regional Bank"), I mentioned I had identified a regional bank with similar characteristics to First Republic before it posted its final earnings report: 

First Republic A Week Ago

Here are some metrics on First Republic before it released earnings last Monday, when its bigger-than-expected drop in deposits led to its death spiral:

  • Piotroski F-Score: 0 (remember, scores below 2 indicate financial distress).

  • Overall fundamental rating: 3 (on a scale from 0-to-10)

  • Relative Strength: 22.4

  • Overall technical rating: 0 (on a scale from 0-to-10).

  • Failed Portfolio Armor’s gauge of options market sentiment.

And here’s how the new bank we bet against compares now:

  • Piotroski F-Score: 0

  • Overall fundamental rating: 2

  • Relative Strength: 22.14

  • Overall technical rating: 0

  • Failed Portfolio Armor’s gauge of options market sentiment.

The trade we opened on this bank offers nearly 8x more potential upside than potential downside. Details below

The bank holding company is Fulton Financial Corporation ( FULT -1.63%↓ ), and this is my trade:

A vertical spread expiring in September buying the $10 strike puts and selling the $7.50 strike puts for a net debit of $0.28. The max gain on 10 contracts is $2,220 and the max loss is $280, and the break-even is with FULT trading below $9.72.

I sold half of those contracts yesterday at a net credit of $0.75, for a gain of 168%. Now I'm playing with the house's money with the other half, with a limit order to exit them at a net credit of $2.15. 

It's probably not too late to bet against FULT again on bounce, if you're interested. And if you'd like a heads up when we enter our next trade, feel free to sign up to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

 

If You Want To Stay In Touch

You follow Portfolio Armor on Twitter here, or become a free subscriber to our Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now). You can also contact us via our website. If you want to hedge, consider using our website or our iPhone app. 

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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